Did we make the right decision in Nuristan?
Apologies if this has been posted already.
From the Long War Journal:
Nuristan drawdown gives new life in Pakistani Taliban
Quote:
Asia Times reporter Syed Saleem Shahzad said that the US pullback in Nuristan has breathed new life into the Taliban in the Pakistani tribal agencies of Bajaur and Mohmand, and in the Swat Valley as well. The effective Taliban control of Nuristan due to the withdrawal of US forces has allowed Qari Ziaur Rahman to reorient forces across the border in Pakistan and open new fronts as the Army is focused on South Waziristan.
While I think this overstates the case, it does make me wonder what it will be like if US/government forces try to return to eastern Nuristan (if ever).
Nuristani militant commanders are known for killing Pakistani Taliban and al Qaeda for crossing into their AO, so I wonder what the dynamic between local and Pakistani Taliban will be in the near future.
Was MikeF right, that we could have used the COP/FOB Keating (correction made for author) incident as an opportunity to drop the hammer on eastern Nuristan, and has our withdrawal just made things harder for us in the long term?
The Nuristan Merry-Go-Round
or perhaps, the Nuristan Wilderness of Mirrors.
Starting with the Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN) Taliban Report, which David linked here and I quoted here (and now re-quote in part):
Quote:
p.10
Organisationally, the insurgency is segmented and consists of seven armed structures: the Islamic Movement of the Taleban, the networks of the Haqqani and Mansur families in the South-East, the Tora Bora Jehad Front (De Tora Bora Jehadi Mahaz) led by Anwar-ul-Haq Mujahed in Nangrahar (Eastern region), HIG, small Salafi groups in Kunar and Nuristan provinces (Eastern region) [28] and, as a new phenomenon, a number of not inter-related local exmujahedin groups that (or whose historical leaders) had been pushed out of power, are taking up arms and starting to adopt Taleban-like language and behaviour.
[28] Official name (Society for the Invitation to Quran and Sunna). This group already established an Islamic mini-state in Nuristan in the 1980s. Its current leader Haji Rohullah joined the post-2001 process but was later arrested and detained in Guantanamo. It is registered as a political party in Kabul.
Now, Mr. Haji Rohullah has some 90 pages of documents scanned into his NY Times dossier; and the obligatory Wiki for former Gitmo detainees. So, a Karzai government figure in the morning, a Nuristani freedom fighter in the afternoon and an AQ-supported guerrilla fighter in the evening.
The World goes round; payback is a mother; and with friends like that, who needs enemies.
Best to all
Mike
Cross-border insurgents flood Afghanistan
Interesting article in the AF Times with MG Mike Flynn.
Quote:
The expansion of Islamic extremist groups across the Afghanistan-Pakistan region is “the worst I’ve seen it,” with Afghan insurgents receiving help from Iranian operatives and “very possibly” freelancing Pakistani intelligence agents, as well as a small but growing number of “deadly” foreign fighters, said Maj. Gen. Mike Flynn, director of intelligence for Gen. Stanley McChrystal’s headquarters here.
“I wouldn’t say it’s out of control right now, but this is a California wildfire and we’re having to bring in firemen from New York,” said Flynn, who has been tracking Islamic extremism for at least eight years in postings as director of intelligence for Joint Task Force 180 (in Afghanistan), Joint Special Operations Command, Central Command and the Joint Staff.
The U.S. intelligence community estimates that 19,000 to 27,000 insurgents are operating in Afghanistan, a roughly tenfold increase from 2004’s estimate of 1,700 to 3,200, said Flynn, who was brought in by McChrystal to head up intelligence operations for NATO’s International Security Assistance Force and is considered one of the four-star general’s closest confidantes here.