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For the first time, the most interconnected risks were “adverse consequence of technologies” and “unemployment and under-employment”, both highly connected with “profound social instability”.
We see an even stronger interconnectivity between “failure to climate change adaptation“, with “food and water crises”, “extreme weather events” and “large scale involuntary migration”.
All of the risks point to profound social instability. If accurate, and I think we can already see that is the case, the threat of extremism for both state (hyper-nationalism) and non-state actors will increase overwhelming our capacity to manage it if we have a threat based strategy where we are constantly responding to threats. Any hope of success in my view is the necessity to shift more effort towards prevention. Arguably our new national security and defense strategies are largely neglecting prevention to rebuild credible deterrence. This is understandable based on years of under investing in our military, but perhaps also short sighted.
