ISIS & Russia: a connection?
A Lithuanian writer asks 'Putin’s Russia. Do traces of KGB, FSB and GRU lead to Islamic State?' or:
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Is it really possible to fully understand the phenomenon of the Islamic state without paying attention to the alleged links between Russian secret services and Chechen terrorists?
Link:http://en.delfi.lt/central-eastern-e....d?id=66856642
There are many references to the Caucasus, Chechen a wandering and other places in Central Asia. Sadly there are no footnotes, although clues are given for some of the sources.
Myth or reality? You decide.
Boko Haram, ISIS and al-Qaeda: How the Jihadists Compare
Boko Haram, ISIS and al-Qaeda: How the Jihadists Compare
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Islamic State and Revolts from the Margins
Professor Paul Rogers has a short commentary, via Oxford Research Group, that:
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There are indications that what has been seen as a narrow series of extreme Islamist movements is now evolving into a much wider phenomenon of generic revolts from the margins. If so, this represents a far more significant transformation of security challenges than the “war on terror” that followed the 9/11 attacks.
(Later) What has recently become evident, however, is that there is something even more fundamental developing in a number of regions where extreme Islamist movements have taken root: they are being fuelled by a perception of marginalisation and exclusion which transcends Islamic State’s more narrow vision of defending Islam under attack from the Crusader forces of the West.
Link:http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.u...evolts_margins
I have long wondered whether the current US and Western allied focus on ISIS in Iraq-Syria, even if seemingly minus a strategy and impact, is a mistake.
I do not doubt that ISIS and its concept of the Caliphate is dangerous to many in the region and beyond, we seem to be ignoring the impact elsewhere. So back to Paul Rogers:
Quote:
In many countries, the marginalised majority has disproportionally large Muslim populations frequently aggrieved and amenable to proselytization. The Economist listed Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Chad, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda as countries facing jihadist groups and identified an endemic issue.
Citing The Economist article 'Jihafrica':
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from Mali and Nigeria to Kenya and Tanzania the story is the same: extremists emerge from and woo Muslim populations on the national periphery who are fed up with decades of neglect, discrimination and mistreatment by their rulers. Jihadists are able to exploit existing religious tensions and latch on to disgruntled Muslim communities.
Bill Moore has recently posted a cautionary note about developments in South-East Asia, see Post 14:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=5635
So far ISIS has shown no intention of making alliances outside the Muslim faith (I exclude the few "willing fools" who appear), that does not mean local movements could.
ISIS: an essential reading collection
Islamic History, ISIS, Jihad, Shia and Sunni etc
Explaining ISIS by Will McCants
A short podcast (16 mins) of a SME William McCants @ Chicago speaking on 'The Power of an Idea' as part of an event on Terrorism: Behind the Headlines.
Link:https://www.chicagoideas.com/videos/876
His very slim bio:
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William McCants directs the Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World at The Brookings Institution. McCants is the author of 'The ISIS Apocalypse: The History, Strategy and Doomsday Vision of the Islamic State'.
Modeling the chances of ISIS in country X..
This is a very amateur and undeveloped idea. I am just putting it out for comments.
Can we model if ISIS is coming soon to country X?
http://brownpundits.blogspot.com/201...r-country.html
Changes in modus operandi of IS terrorist attacks
A short (8 pg PPT) from Europol, the full title being:
Quote:
Changes in modus operandi of Islamic State terrorist attacks
Link:https://t.co/5mthVAPQDA
It was written after the latest Paris attacks and on a quick skim has few surprises. It does have some interesting passages on radicalisation after the Europol meeting's review:
Quote:
(Pt.6) An increasing phenomenon is that of Islamist “brotherhood gatherings”, analogous to other faction camps that have existed for decades with other religious movements. This is a relatively new concept for Muslims, which first surfaced only a couple of years ago.
(Pt.8) In view of this shift away from the religious component in the radicalisation of, especially, young recruits, it may be more accurate to speak of a ‘violent extremist social trend’ rather than using the term ‘radicalisation’.
(pt.9) A significant proportion of foreign fighters (20 per cent according to one source, even more according to another) have been diagnosed with mental problems prior to joining IS. A large proportion of recruits (estimates are as high as 80 per cent) have criminal records varying from petty crimes to more serious offences. Rates and types of offences seem to differ between countries. It may be that recruiters specifically target criminals with an inclination for violence, or that some criminals find that, in joining IS, it provides the opportunity to give free rein to their violent impulses.
I will copy this post to the thread on radicalisation:Studies on radicalization & comments
Fishing for a blog post or essay..
there MAY have been another lone-wolf attack in Ohio. I am not really focusing on the attack (which may turn out to be completely unrelated to Jihad, or we may never know), but it got me thinking and led to a this series of tweets:
https://storify.com/omarali50/lone-wolves-and-psychos
So the question is this: What is the history of lone wolf terrorism? is there a proper definition? what started such sprees and what ended them? What ideologies/religions/circumstances make it possible or encourage it? What kind of person goes for it?
And so on. If this is already written somewhere, can we have a link?
Thanks