Terrorists, Insurgents & WMD? Intent & Capability
Moderator's Note
Bill Moore suggested a new thread on how terrorists/militias/insurgents use and intend to use WMD. Oddly SWC has not debated this (see 1st post for historical links). He suspects we're at the start of a trend that will increase exponentially as tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) are further refined.(Ends)
The new information at the bottom is from the 11 OCT round up on the SWJ homepage.
Quote:
Alsumaria News / Baghdad
confirmed the number of MPs from the province of Diwaniyah , on Monday, killing 300 soldiers using chlorine gas for the first time by the militants..
National Defense Magazine article 'ISIL Determined to Acquire Biological Weapons':http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.o...t.aspx?ID=1632
Syria declares new chemical weapons facilities:http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29534926
Quote:
The UN Security Council has been told that Syria has revealed for the first time the existence of four more chemical weapons facilities.
Of course this sentence shouldn't surprise anyone, hope it was added for comic effect and that the author wasn't actually surprised by this.
Quote:
Correspondents say the announcement heightens concerns that the Syrian government has not been fully open about its chemical weapons programme.
Chlorine gas by itself is minimally effective as a weapon, which is why I remain suspect of the Iraqi news report that ISIS used it to kill 300 Iraqi soldiers. On the other hand what the use of chlorine gas as a weapon indicates is that they will use more dangerous chemical weapons if they acquire them or make them, and as they demonstrated they're a learning organization so it is possible they'll develop their own form of chemical weapons. Highly improbable that states will be able to deter them from using these weapons. The discussion on bio weapons is premature for now, but I suspect it won't be too long until we see an attempt by IS and other extremist groups to use them. I doubt they'll be restricted by the same logic states used about the concern of containing the impact of bioweapons to a specific geographical region.
In sum, the rules have already changed and we should anticipate improvements in their TTPs. The implications are we may to go back to the future, and place a greater emphasis on protective gear for our soldiers, and dust off the homeland response plans for chemical attacks. For the current state of the art (which won't last, it will progress) the effects will be more psychological than physical, but as we have seen from our reaction to the Boston Marathon Bombing psychological effects can have strategic effect in the media age where we have 24hour news coverage.
Insurgents & WMD? Intent & Capability
Bill Moore suggested a new thread on how terrorists/militias/insurgents use and intend to use WMD. Oddly SWC has not debated this (see 1st post for historical links).
He suspects we're at the start of a trend that will increase exponentially as tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) are further refined.
This post opens the thread, but two other posts will be moved from the 'out Of Mosul' thread, where Bill & I posted on this theme, so it will become the third post.
ISIS @ Kobane in July used CW
A short article from an Israeli insititute, which relies on Kurdish information, alleges ISIS has used CW. It starts with:
Quote:
Prior to the current campaign, the most serious (but unsuccessful) attempt to conquer Kobani came in July 2014, shortly following the dramatic IS advance into Iraq. It was during this assault on Kobani that evidence emerged which appeared to point to the use by the Islamic State on at least one occasion of some kind of chemical agent against the Kurdish fighters of the YPG (Peoples’ Protection Units).
The July offensive commenced on July 2nd. According to Kurdish activists, the use of the chemical agent took place on July 12th, in the village of Avdiko, in the eastern part of the Kobani enclave (now in IS hands.)
Link:http://www.gloria-center.org/2014/10...aphic-content/
I note the suggestion that the CW may have come from a sealed Iraqi state bunker complex. Which was the subject of a thread:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=20863
Note one UK SME, Dan Kaszeta has Tweeted:
Quote:
Photos I've seen so far not terribly conclusive
Iraqi soldiers killed by chlorine gas
I remember having read this article about an alleged attack with chlorine gas on Iraqi troops just west of Baghdad.
ISIS kills 300 Iraqi soldiers by chlorine gas attack in Saqlawiyah
Unfortunately I could not find any confirmation on the actual use of chemical weapons. But there were rumours that IS had used chlorine gas on multiple occasions in Syria as well though with not so many casualties. :confused:
I wonder if anyone can confirm this incident.
Cheers PB
The Nexus of Mutual Hatred
Of course greed played a role in the motivation, but so did hatred of the U.S. by the Russian Mafia groups. Selling nuclear materials to ISIL to attack the U.S. serves two purposes, one making money, and other providing the means to a group to attack a mutual enemy the U.S.. Law Enforcement did an outstanding job, but remember they have to get it right every time. The intent is there, and there are so those willing to match those up with intent with the means to execute a WMD attack. I hesitate to call radiological dispersion devise a WMD, but it will have an outsized psychological effect.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/n...006-story.html
Nuclear smugglers shopped radioactive material to Islamic State, other terrorists: AP report
Quote:
The previously unpublicized case is one of at least four attempts in five years in which criminal networks with suspected Russian ties sought to sell radioactive material to extremists through Moldova, an investigation by The Associated Press has found. One investigation uncovered an attempt to sell bomb-grade uranium to a real buyer from the Middle East, the first known case of its kind.
Quote:
“He said: 'I really want an Islamic buyer because they will bomb the Americans.'
- Constantin Malic, Moldovan investigator
Quote:
The repeated attempts to peddle radioactive materials signal that a thriving nuclear black market has emerged in an impoverished corner of Eastern Europe on the fringes of the former Soviet Union.