COIN Polling in Afghanistan
31 December Toronto Star - Taking the Pulse of Kandahar by Oakland Ross.
Quote:
Here's a novel idea: armies don't need to be great big killing machines.
They can also conduct public-opinion polls.
This, it seems, is the modern way. "It's not pure war-fighting any more," says Lt.-Cmdr. Wynn Polnicky, part of the 2,500-strong Canadian military contingent currently waging war in southern Afghanistan against a shadowy force of fundamentalist Islamic rebels known as the Taliban.
"It's pretty clear we have an insurgency here, but what really matters is what people think. So, just ask them. It's not an earth-shaking idea."...
Traditionally, armies have tended to train most of their attention – not to mention almost all of their gun sights – on the firearm-toting fighters located on the opposite side of the front line, otherwise known as the enemy.
In Polnicky's view, however, it is not just the enemy that you need to be concerned about.
It's everybody else...
31 December Prairie Pundit post - Counterinsurgency Polling by Council member Merv Benson.
Quote:
... In counterinsurgency warfare the people are considered the center of gravity. They are what the fight is ultimately over. However, polling may not give you that much information even if it is negative, because the enemy in Afghanistan and Iraq is not trying to win hearts and minds, it is trying to intimidate. Most polling has shown that al Qaeda has the support of around five percent of the population in Iraq, but this lack of support has certainly not "intimidated" al Qaeda.
That would be "Family Feud"--seems appropriate!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
goesh
I'm trying my best to remember the name of that game show in which the host would ask questions then say, " survey says!" Polling the villagers - wow! What if they all said, "get the hell out of here!" - would the Kanucks then pull out? So, some strangers from a powerful, foreign armed force come around asking questions. Hmmmm, what to say, what to say - what will they do if we tell them the wrong answer? Wouldn't that be running through your mind?
That would be "Family Feud"--seems appropriate!
Best
Tom
Polls and other distortions of reality
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Steve Blair
Polls are the most amazing things. They can say pretty much anything you want them to, no matter what questions are asked.
....
If nothing else this might give people an insight into issues that matter to the locals. If they act on that insight is, of course, a different critter.
Oh there's a whole host of issues with doing this type of survey work <wry grin>. I do too much of it as a consultant to not know how badly interpretational pressuppositions can skew analysis :( . What I would really like to get is not only a copy of the questions, but also the full methodology, since there are ways to focus in and fine tune survey results.
My gut guess is that they are not using the type of methodology that I wold recommend in this situation. I suspect that they have outsourced the surveying to someone like Angus Reid or one of the other big survey firms when it should be integrated into the PRT and using multiple data sources.
Marc
As an addendum to the Kandahar PRT...
Just came across this blog entry.
Quote:
Why Canadians don't know the trivia that's not trivial
Quickly now - no Googling: can you name three projects Canada's Kandahar Provincial Reconstruction Team (KPRT) has undertaken in the past year? The first wiseguy to spout off that "they dug a well" gets a slap in the head for his trouble.
If you couldn't think of one specific thing, you're not alone - I couldn't either, until I did a bit of digging. The truth is that the KPRT has almost a hundred projects either on the go or completed right now, put together by CF, Civilian Police (CivPol), DFAIT, or CIDA personnel with the team. Following are some highlights that I found particularly interesting.
Worth looking at for a number of reasons, but I think the integrated approach - military, economic, LE and political - is a good model that has applications elsewhere.
Marc