Rural Fence Sitters in Afghanistan
I throw this out as an open question – how do you win the support of the rural people of Afghanistan?
I spent OEF6 building as a company commander building roads in rural Afghanistan both in Oruzgan Province working from Tarin Khot south to Tanacheuy and in Paktia Province from Khost to the Pakistan border. In both places I had the opportunity to work with local town leaders. Three things were clear. First, just surviving is a pretty arduous task. This was unforgiving country and town leaders were more interested in day-to-day survival matters than anything else. Second, the central government had no influence. This was because no one had ever seen anyone from the central government. Depending on where they were the locals may see ANA troops once a month but beyond that nothing. Even when I was in locations where the coalition had built district offices the only thing there was a building and some furniture. There would be some ANA to protect it but they did not even have the fuel to run their generators. They could offer little to the population in the form of support. Third, we were outsiders. We were not, nor were we ever to be, their brothers. Our world and theirs was significantly different and we were never there long enough (i.e more than one year) to build a relationship.
The one thing I did notice in both places was a pride in being Afghani. That pride included their common history of expelling invaders.
At this point in the struggle it seems that the coalition needs to convince these fence-sitters to take a side and support the central government. Ultimately this is their fight for their country; we just have a national security interest in who wins.
Thoughts?
Sorry, no rationality please, we're American...
I totally agree with you but history and indications lead me to believe some hard charger will end up in command and try to expand the envelope. Hopefully not -- maybe, just maybe, we're getting smarter as we slowly fight a losing battle against maturity... :D
Look into the Imperial period?
Winning local support from a proud, independent people. I do wonder if the model used by the British along the NW Frontier, yes the other side of the Durand Line, offers some guidance - often the people and tribes are the same.
The locals were left to govern themselves as much as possible (not very progressive and confirmed by the Pakistanis when returning to FATA after 9/11. - no schools, no medical facilities etc).
There was a set of rules on what the locals could not do, notably to the supply roads and railways for the military garrisons along the border. The roads were guarded by local raised forces.
There was a well known enforcement tariff, which occassionally meant military action to enforce fines on tribes etc.
Locally recruited para-military forces, paid for - without any local taxes and with long term seconded officers / NCOs.
Nothing I have heard about the situation today indicates the national Afghan government has a proper role outside Kabul. So start local, bottom up.
From my comfortable armchair.
davidbfpo