A "Tet Offensive" in Iraq
Read an interesting blurb, http://ace.mu.nu/archives/247147.php basically suggesting a Tet is on the way, just a matter of time. Further, with too many premature calls by U.S. commentators (blogs, media, etc.) of victory in Iraq, this will bring about disappointment among Americans, and would be a coup for AQI, with renewed calls in U.S. for withdrawal from Iraq.
Comments?
Salaam y'all,
Shivan
Tet Offensive: A Prediction
I think this is a great question. As others on here know better than I, there are a lot of differences between Vietnam and Iraq. In the Tet Offensive, there were a lot of traditional engagements between American and NVA forces, something the Iraqi insurgents cannot produce. On the otherhand, the VC filled their insurgent role during the operation, something the insurgents might be able to produce. As we all know, the major effect of Tet was a psychological and political defeat. In order to equal this kind of defeat in Iraq, there would have to be several attacks similar to the one on the Golden Mosque of Samarra within a relatively short period of time. Also, there would need to be a significant number of casualties. I suppose there could be these kinds of attacks, but I don't think it is likely. It seems that the insurgency there has lost a lot of steam. I read an article today in which the assertion was made that a lot of the money paid to past insurgents is no longer available. Furthermore, the ideology behind their tactics, as witnessed in al Anbar, has also diminished. If I had to make a prediction, I would say it is unlikely that a Tet Offensive type of opeation is not very likely. I am just glad that my predictions, unlike those of the real policymakers and troops on the ground, don't matter much!!!!
Has there been a failed Tet?
Hypothetically, had the insurgents read about Tet, but not read the fine print that it was a tactical disaster for the insurgents, they might try to emulate it. Do you think that was the insurgent 'surge' in attacks on the Green Zone about 2-3 weeks ago? On the one hand, it was a surge, and it looked liked it was more drama than effect (not to denigrate the people hurt and killed). Like they were trying to generate media effects (like Tet).
On the other hand, that implies a higher degree of cooperation that the insurgents seem willing to go along with. The insurgency seems more viral, with only general directions to the various groups, than coordinated. It seems to me that each Arab man sees himself as an emir or maneuvering to become one, and cooperation is low in their priorities unless directly threatened or there is a clear path to advancement involved.
The most important piece is that Tet wasn't a turning point until some know-nothing talking-head on the news said 'quagmire'. It drives home the importance of getting our message out accurately, and early.