The 20 Percent Solution

20 July Washington Post commentary - The 20 Percent Solution by Charles Krauthammer.

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Amid the Senate's all-night pillow fight and other Iraq grandstanding, real things are happening on the ground in Iraq. They consist of more than just a surge of U.S. troop levels. Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker have engaged us in a far-reaching and fundamental political shift. Call it the 20 percent solution.

Ever since the December 2005 Iraqi elections, the United States has been waiting for the central government in Baghdad to pass grand national accords on oil, federalism and de-Baathification to unify and pacify the country. The Maliki government has proved too sectarian, too weak and perhaps too disposed to Iranian interests to rise to the task...

... Petraeus and Crocker have found a Plan B: pacify the country region by region, principally by getting Sunnis to join the fight against al-Qaeda...

As a disclaimer I have met Charles Krauthammer in the Fox Green room a couple of times rolling blissfully by in his wheelchair ... once he made small talk the same day someone I knew was vaporized by a 122mm mortar. I wasn't in the mood for small talk but he was ... he's got some grand strategies for winning -this is a beaut! ... did I actually read this correctly?:

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That's why so many Sunnis have accepted Petraeus's bargain -- they join our fight against al-Qaeda, and we give them weaponry and military support. With that, they can rid themselves of the al-Qaeda cancer now. And later, when the Americans inevitably leave, they'll be better positioned to defend themselves against the 80 percent Shiite-Kurd majority they are beginning to realize they may have unwisely taken on.

Did I just hear him advocate arming the Sunni insurgency (or their tribal and political masters or anyone who says they have laid down arms) in order to militarily offset the power of the Shiite-Kurd Central government??? ... the same government WE have been supporting and a new Iraqi Army we intend to send into Anbar province to replace us and force stability and loyalty to the same central government he is talking about using the 20% solution as a fair to counter-balance ... did I acually read that?

If I did read this correctly, I now know why Kurdish Division commanders intend to bolt as a unit with the entire TO&E at the first sign that they can become a nation ... This is why Shi'ite brigade commanders trust Iran more than us. This is why Muqtada al-Sadr is so popular when he spouts off what sounds like, to us, conspiracy theories of the American preference for Sunnis. This plays well in Najaf and Tehran.

Commentators like this who advocate throwing our support behind the tribes and players of the former regime and the Islamic/nationalist insurgency are fools and I don't suffer fools gladly, particularly those who have never been part of the actual war. General Petraeus is playing a much finer balancing act to protect the population at larges and slowly weaning the tribes off of supporting ALL the insurgents centimeter by centimeter. As I said earlier we may have a well rested and rearmed insurgency when AQI is gone (if they ever really go and kill off AQI - the Sunnis have been near brilliant at suckering us) ... but to actually advocate that position in public? I am sure this will be broadcast as "American treachery" to the other 80% of Iraq that hear about it,.

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Maliki & Co. are afraid we are arming Sunnis for the civil war to come. On the other hand, we might be creating a rough balance of forces that would act as a deterrent to all-out civil war and encourage a relatively peaceful accommodation.

The Shiites have been waiting for March 1991 backstab all over again and Voila ...a well known ally of the President is advocating armed rapprochement with the Sunni insurgent support base so the Shi'ite government has no clear advantage.

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In either case, that will be Iraq's problem after we leave.

Oh really!? This from one of the most vociferous advocates of the war? Well tell it to Tehran because they will be calling the shots and the Iraqis will galdly take any advice or support if we even entertain this idea for a few moments.

What do you mean, We, Paleface?

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In either case, that will be Iraq's problem after we leave.

Oh really!? This from one of the most vociferous advocates of the war? Well tell it to Tehran because they will be calling the shots and the Iraqis will galdly take any advice or support if we even entertain this idea for a few moments.

Custer to loyal scout, Tonto: "Yes, I said, we, Tonto. We are going over that hill..."