Originally Posted by
John T. Fishel
Matt--
In terms of your argument regarding theory: It is not theoretical that most insurgencies fail; that is a matter of fact. Theory involves the rationale for that fact. In this case, you hypothesize that the explanation for the fact that most insurgencies fail is that they are defeated in their early stages. I suspect that your hypothesis would add significantly to the numbers of failed insurgencies but my assertion comes from our sample of 43 cases which are mainly cases of relatively long wars. But a definitive answer requires more empirical research - not a bad project for any student interested in insurgency.;)
Just to add a bit, after the original article/study all our subsequent work has been qualitative rather than quantitative. we have applied the model to counterdrug operations, peace operations, and other contingency operations with quite a bit of success. But, I will stress again that we don't see it (the approach) as being a cookie cutter.
Cheers
JohnT