A controversial Approach to Poppy problem
It is discouraging to note the poppy problem continues to grow worse despite claims by some counter-narcotics organisations of the increases in seizures and eradication. The problem however is growing faster than these 'successes', is involving more and more of the Afghan population and economy, is increasing in its diversity and resilience and most current efforts are only causing greater instability for the regions and country.
I have made small attempts in otehr threads here at SWJ to introduce an alternative to the current failed counter-narcotics strategies in an attempt to deal with the issue holistically. Looking at the problem from a systems perspective can yield strategies that have greater positive effects and far fewer negative secondary and tertiary effects.
For example, too many strategies rely on poppy eradication and related replacement efforts which fail to look broadly and deal with the secondary problems created by the poppy industry as a whole. Supplying wheat: may not work for all farmers, may not be viable to grow and/or market; furthermore, many grow wheat for subsistence and not to market it, some feed the seed to their cattle rather than grow wheat, and generally the associated labour for wheat is up to 80% lower than poppy which means that a vast number of Afghans that benefit from the poppy trade are now displaced and looking for an income (maybe recruits for the insurgency?). Buying the crop: feeds the current system, raises the street price and incentivises more Afghans and the potential for continued corruption. Destroying the crop: feeds corruption, contributes to insecurity, foments resentment from majority of Afghans, has proven to be a failed strategy.
I propose considering setting up an agricultural marketing type board consisting of a licence fee based quoto to grow poppy by the acre (not produce opiates) which would be managed in partnership with the current powerbrokers, landowners and government (police and provincial). A set number and size of licenses would be sold annually, with the fees and number adjusted each year in order to i) reduce the current poppy cultivation by 25% in the first year compared to current levels, ii) reduce the number of licences each year over ten years to nil, iii) continue and expand eradication and alternative livelihood progrmammes, iv) produce government revenues and involvement, and finally v) implement some demand reduction measures in destination countries.
In this proposal; there would be 100% eradication enforced in all non-licenced areas, farmers would have ten years to transition to licit agricultural products (vineyards for grapes and raisins, pomegranates, nut groves, etc.), fees from sales would go into alternatives, precurser opiate production chemicals from external suppliers would be interdicted, education programmes would be funded and corruption would be directly monitored and controlled.
That is the essence of the strategy, which I hope to publish as a longer paper with supporting evidence and conclusions. It is entirely feasible to adopt such a proposal province by province as a test case as well, however a whole country effort is more appropriate given the recent and continuing history.
Regards,
David
Not a final solution, but interesting ...
One can no longer speak of purely "terrorist" or purely transnational criminal groups, as exemplified by the following:
DOJ News Release (July 26, 2011):
Quote:
Manhattan U.S. Attorney Announces Arrests in DEA Narco-Terrorism Undercover Operations
One DEA Operation Results in Arrests of Defendants for Agreeing to Acquire $9.5 Million Worth of Surface-to-Air Missiles and Other Weapons for Hizballah
Separate DEA Operation Culminates in Arrest of Heroin and Weapons Trafficker from Kandahar, Afghanistan for Taliban-Related Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy
Note the well-traveled defendants and where they were arrested:
Quote:
Preet Bharara, the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York, and Michele M. Leonhart, the Administrator of the United States Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), announced the unsealing of two indictments resulting from two DEA narco-terrorism undercover operations: first, an indictment against Siavosh Henareh, Bachar Wehbe, and Cetin Aksu for conspiring to provide various forms of support to Hizballah; second, an indictment against Taza Gul Alizai ("Gul") for narco-terrorism conspiracy, narco-terrorism, and heroin importation related to his supplying of 15 kilograms of heroin and six AK-47 assault rifles to a DEA confidential source whom Gul believed represented the Taliban. Henareh and aksu were arrested yesterday in Bucharest, Romania, where they were detained pending extradition to the United States. Wehbe and Gul were arrested yesterday in the Republic of the Maldives, and arrived in the Southern District of New York earlier today.
Of much greater general interest is the recent Executive Order--Blocking Property of Transnational Criminal Organizations (July 25, 2011):
Quote:
By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (50 U.S.C. 1701 et seq.) (IEEPA), the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1601 et seq.) (NEA), and section 301 of title 3, United States Code,
I, BARACK OBAMA, President of the United States of America, find that the activities of significant transnational criminal organizations, such as those listed in the Annex to this order, have reached such scope and gravity that they threaten the stability of international political and economic systems. Such organizations are becoming increasingly sophisticated and dangerous to the United States; they are increasingly entrenched in the operations of foreign governments and the international financial system, thereby weakening democratic institutions, degrading the rule of law, and undermining economic markets. These organizations facilitate and aggravate violent civil conflicts and increasingly facilitate the activities of other dangerous persons. I therefore determine that significant transnational criminal organizations constitute an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States, and hereby declare a national emergency to deal with that threat.
....
Entities
1. THE BROTHERS’ CIRCLE (f.k.a. FAMILY OF ELEVEN; f.k.a. THE TWENTY)
2. CAMORRA
3. YAKUZA (a.k.a. BORYOKUDAN; a.k.a. GOKUDO)
4. LOS ZETAS
Note that the legal authority cited is Title 50 and not Title 10.
Regards
Mike
Massive increase in Afghan opium production
Hat tip to Circling The Lion's Den, which has id'd a UN report:http://circlingthelionsden.blogspot....han-opium.html
A few choice sentences from Nick's review:
Quote:
A total of 131,000 hectares was under cultivation, compared to 125,000 ha last year. However, that obscures the fact that the amount of opium produced will rise by 61 per cent this year compared to last, to a total of 5,800 metric tonnes.
As I watch Helmand Province:
Quote:
There have been some counter-narcotic successes, with a reduction in opium cultivation in central Helmand province, mainly due to the successful introduction of counter narcotics programmes by the central government. But in the north and south of the province production increased.
The final sentence reminds us of the impact on Afghans, have a look!