AQ Central shrinking, ISIS growing
Two analysts review AQ's future, both co-operate so there is some overlap.
First, CWOT aka Clint Watts (SWC member), in Part Four of his review:http://www.fpri.org/geopoliticus/201...unterterrorism
Quote:
Rather than punishing ISIS and regaining authority over the global jihad, Zawahiri and al Qaeda may soon become the second largest jihadist organization in the world. Angered by Zawahiri’s betrayal and admiring of ISIS commitment to pursue an Islamic state, what were once thought to be al Qaeda Central affiliates are openly declaring allegiance to ISIS emir Baghdadi.
There is a lot there to take in, so a comment another day.
Second, J.M. Berger of Intelwire.com, has a chart (as below) and a short explanation of how this evolved:http://news.intelwire.com/2014/03/al...es-update.html
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-slrRnfQ9TV...-fractures.png
Global Terrorism Set to Reignite
http://www.realclearworld.com/articl..._reignite.html
Some interesting comments from an Indian and Indonesian CT practitioner. While not stating it directly, their arguments give support to the emergence and spread of Al-Qaedaism.
We see plenty of signs indicating a resurgence of terrorism in SE Asia, and of course India is justifiably concerned about a surge of terrorism in India within two years of our departure from Afghanistan.
Quote:
Talking to both Ali and Doval gives a kind of stereoscopic depth of view to the re-emerging terror threat. They share key concerns: what is happening in Syria, what will soon happen in Afghanistan, the growing popularity of al-Qa'ida ideology in North Africa and the Middle East and the deep strategic planning of jihadist networks.
Quote:
"Al-Qa'ida doesn't have to seek them out. Quite the reverse. Sometimes it rejects them.
"But this acceptance by all these groups of al-Qa'ida as the ideological hub is extremely important. Al-Qa'ida doesn't have a local agenda, it only has a local geography. Its agenda is global."
Perfect Storm: The Arab Spring and the Syrian Civil War
A short commentary by Bruce Hoffman on the SITE website 'Perfect Storm: The Arab Spring and the Syrian Civil War':http://news.siteintelgroup.com/blog/...rian-civil-war
It reminds us that it is not Jihadist attacks, terrorism or actions that are the primary threat, it is the message and it is spreading (a point that has appeared elsewhere on SWC this week).