The U.S. Pivots (Slightly) Toward Africa – By Michael Keating
Interesting article on US policy (or lack of it) in Africa.
Quote:
As Ambassador Carrington concluded at his UMass address: “Mali is a cautionary tale for any country seeking U.S. assistance.” Because the United States lacked real intelligence about what was going in Mali’s political circles, American actions helped to topple one of Africa’s oldest democracies. Unintended consequences, to be sure; but an undertaking deeply unworthy of – and damaging to – the kinds of outcomes the U.S. would like to see in Africa, and the principles it claims to stand for.
http://africanarguments.org/2012/12/...chael-keating/
AQIM Fractures: New Leaders & New Money in the Sahel
Clint Watts comments on the reported disunity amongst the Islamist rebels:
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Well, it looks like more money and fighters has led to more conflict than unity in AQIM. Analysis suggesting more of any one terror group input (Weapons, money, fighters, etc) will lead directly to a stronger collective whole (AQIM) naively ignores the one thing that is most difficult to quantify and analyze: Human nature.....
Across al Qaeda’s global footprint, decentralization has led to there being more incentive for affiliates to compete than cooperate. With Bin Laden’s death, donors spread their funds more diffusely and local affiliate illicit revenue schemes must increase. Ultimately, this change leads to al Qaeda affiliates with waning allegiance to al Qaeda Central.
Link:http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=840
Thinking about this I wonder how distant onlookers, even sympathisers, will react to such groups becoming more like robbers, than fighters. Distant feelings of legitimacy and possibly sympathy are nothing compared to the local reaction.
ECOWAS with UN OK and a French General
I'd seen that UN approval was given for the ECOWAS intervention force, presumably for diplomatic reasons and maybe funding? What I'd missed that a French General is assigned as commander:
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..the passage last week by the U.N. Security Council of a French-sponsored resolution authorizing military intervention in northern Mali by a 3,300-strong force of soldiers from the Economic Community of West African States. The soldiers are to be trained and commanded by French officers. A French general with experience in Africa and Bosnia, Francois Lecointre, has been named to command the mission.
As previously reported the EU will re-train the Malian military:
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About 400 European Union soldiers have been assigned, beginning next month, to train a 3,000-strong Malian army force that would be capable of redeployment to restore government authority in the stretches of northern Mali that have fallen under the control of AQIM forces.
Link:http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...ml?tid=wp_ipad
Late response to an earlier posting
Quote:
Originally Posted by Commando Spirit
A day later, Ansar Dine and the Azawad National Liberation Movement (MNLA), a Tuareg separatist group, said they were committed to finding a negotiated solution.
Ansar Dine as well? I missed that one. Frankly, I am a bit surprised to read that.
Tunnels, logistics and some insight
A rather breathless AP article in part, based on local sources, with AQIM building tunnels and moving SAMs from Libya. Shades of Tora Bora? See:http://abcnews.go.com/m/story?id=18098473
The best parts are the comments by Robert Fowler, a Canadian diplomat, who was kidnapped for four months in 2008:
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Fowler described being driven for days by jihadists who knew Mali's featureless terrain by heart, navigating valleys of identical dunes with nothing more than the direction of the sun as their map. He saw them drive up to a thorn tree in the middle of nowhere to find barrels of diesel fuel. Elsewhere, he saw them dig a pit in the sand and bury a bag of boots, marking the spot on a GPS for future use.
In his four-month-long captivity, Fowler never saw his captors refill at a gas station, or shop in a market. Yet they never ran out of gas. And although their diet was meager, they never ran out of food, a testament to the extensive supply network which they set up and are now refining and expanding.
Going to Mali / Sahel? Read this book
Robert Fowler a Canadian diplomat seconded to the UN in Niger was kidnapped for four months in 2008, by AQIM and has written a book on his experiences 'A Season in Hell'.
It has been well reviewed on Amazon:http://www.amazon.com/Season-Hell-Ro...+robert+fowler
One review is a guide:
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Robert Fowler has written a unique account of what it is to be a captive of Al Queda. Unique, because Fowler is the highest-level representative of western governments ever to be taken by Al Queda. Also, because his background as a diplomat, senior government official and UN representative was precisely keyed to the menace of islamist terrorism; he knows his subject.
The book explains in painful detail the treatment he was subjected to for four months in the Sahara desert, the motivation of his radicalized captors and the perfidious actions - as well as the heroics - of the various actors involved. Fowler `gets' the big picture, and explains it in terms that provide a wake-up call to both the threatened governments of the Sahel region and the western governments that must support them.
Link to Amazon UK:http://www.amazon.co.uk/Season-Hell-...6964229&sr=1-1
For some background on SWC there is a thread on Niger, which covers his kidnapping:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=9303.
Fowler urges Canada to intervene
Robert Fowler, once a Canadian diplomat, has written an article:http://www.theglobeandmail.com/comme...rticle7015466/
He ends with advice on what the mission's objectives must be:
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This must be about damaging and degrading the capabilities and numbers of al-Qaeda in northern Mali that it won’t soon threaten the peace and stability of our friends across this vulnerable region. And it must also be about helping Mali’s armed forces to reoccupy and then defend their country once the jihadis have been diminished.
It won’t be about turning Mali into Saskatchewan or Nebraska. And it won’t be about exporting our social safety net or funding a government or anything else that isn’t directly related to damaging al-Qaeda.
Not seen this before, but it makes sense - earlier in the article:
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Over the past half-century, Canada and other developed countries have invested more than $60-billion in assistance to the countries of the Sahel. Does it not make sense to protect such a huge investment in the lives and welfare of something like half a billion Africans?