US Oil & Gas Supply: the realities
PB,
Thanks for those links. I had seen the UC-Davis study but not the CFR one.
Meanwhile, there have been a few developments during the past 12 days.
Two weeks ago, the International Energy Agency released its annual World Energy Outlook.
Last week, the New York Times published "There will be fuel," a rosy prognostication by Clifford Krauss.
Energy Bulletin has just published an open letter to the NYT by Canadian geoscientist David Hughes, explaining why Krauss' article is "inaccurate, misleading and unhelpful:"
http://www.energybulletin.net/storie...new-york-times
National Commission Working Paper #6 (Macondo)
A draft of Staff Working Paper #6 by the National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling was released a few days ago. The document is titled, Stopping the Spill: The Five-Month Effort To Kill the Macondo Well (39 pgs).
A review of this document has just been posted at EB:
http://www.energybulletin.net/storie...-macondo-spill
Julian Cribb re global food supply (interview)
"The Coming Famine" by Australian analyst Julian Cribb was recently released (248 pgs).
In this audio interview (with visual accessories) he examines the convergence of factors (water, declining foodland, CC, population growth, urbanization, etc) but he repeatedly mentions the depletion of non-renewables: oil and fertilizer (Part 1, 15 mins).
http://peakoil.com/consumption/peak-...coming-famine/
Meanwhile, both USDA and Agriculture Canada have not only conducted no study on peak oil, they still have not even conducted an analysis of the likely impacts to the agri-food sector of the much broader topic of "the end of cheap fossil fuels."
Planning for Liquid Fuel Emergencies (LFEs)
A pair of articles was posted today at Energy Bulletin:
1. an annotated bibliography of the LFE research:
http://www.energybulletin.net/storie...d-bibliography
2. a supportive response to the article which was submitted by Kathy Leotta and her colleagues last month:
http://www.energybulletin.net/storie...ly-disruptions
Guardian: Confidential cable re future Saudi production
Today the Guardian published the transcript of a US embassy cable which summarized an interview with Dr. Sadad al Husseini in late 2007:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...il-saudiarabia
Saudi Arabia is the world's "swing producer," the only country which is believed to possess the ability to increase production quickly and significantly.
Dr. al Husseini questions whether Saudi Arabia could sustain production levels of 12 mbpd much beyond 2020.
In this respect, the projection of Dr. al Husseini is consistent with at that of Chatham House analyst Paul Stevens, who expects Saudi export capacity to decline after 2015 and to end around 2040:
http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publi...view/-/id/645/
As an indication of the expertise & credibility of Dr. al Husseini, this interview is offered:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cd7QGbNKxoQ
Bottom line: when production from Ghawar stalls, Saudi Arabia will stall, and then global oil production will almost certainly be in permanent distress.
Over half of our trade deficit
Quote:
At today's oil prices of roughly $90 per barrel, slashing imports that much would save the U.S. $175 billion a year. Last year, when oil averaged $78 per barrel, the U.S. sent $260 billion overseas for crude, accounting for nearly half the country's $500 billion trade deficit.
From one of the articles that Adam posted, this is illuminating.
Herzliya security conference
Steve,
Thanks for your posting: you are certainly correct in mentioning scale. As that recent RAND report on alt-fuels for military points out, to be of wide-spread use a new technology needs to be capable of putting forth volumes & availability (ie. infrastructure) which will permit widespread adoption of it.... often not so easy.
Meanwhile, the Herzliya conference on national security was held two weeks ago in Israel.
Here is the agenda:
http://www.herzliyaconference.org/_U...AgendaE(1).pdf
Please note the Tuesday morning session (11:30) entitled "At Peak Oil: Strategic Implications..."
Brig Gen Binder covers a lot of ground and many points are understated (sometimes his English is a bit jumbled, though I think his intent is clear):
http://www.youtube.com/user/Herzliya...40/bYATgE_KsXs
Yossie Hollander also makes a number of good points.
David Hobbs from CERA states the obvious.
Brenda Shaffer sees little to worry about, thanks to natural gas.
Jim Woolsey seems all over the map: in this interview he seems to downplay PO in the first few seconds (there could be some context missing here) and then seems to discount the IEA warning about needing 4-6 Saudi Arabias within 20 years, yet he expects surging consumption in China:
http://wn.com/herzliyaconference?upl...erby=published
Woolsey's optimism re alt-fuels does not quite fit with the recent RAND study on alternative fuels for military application.
His last few minutes are spent on small talk with the interviewer, so you may want to stop around the 10th minute.
These links connect to conference videos of other familiar names re energy security: Liam Fox, Gal Luft, Patrick Clawson, etc.