Hezbollah has now lost more men in Syria (1400) than it did fighting Israel for three decades (1361).
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/view...ing-wars-.html …
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Hezbollah has now lost more men in Syria (1400) than it did fighting Israel for three decades (1361).
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/view...ing-wars-.html …
CrowBat...it is amazing just how many "talking heads" sound great but honestly say little to nothing when compared to actual ME SMEs....who fully understand Syria and the war within wars.........Quote:
Originally Posted by CrowBat
http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2016...ref=d-topstory
Inside Obama’s Syria Choices (A Guide for Dissenting Diplomats)
By Derek Chollet
June 20, 2016
The Obama/Rhodes WH just keep on ignoring those that truly understand Syria and Syrians and just spin and spin and spin...........Quote:
Here are six ways we in the administration could’ve approached Syria differently – and why we didn’t.
Last week’s revelation that over 50 State Department diplomats have formally dissented from the Obama administration’s approach toward Syria—calling for greater use of U.S. military power to put pressure on President Bashar al-Assad—is yet another reminder of how frustrating and demoralizing the policy has been, especially for those of us who played a role in shaping and implementing it.
But that’s not the same as asserting it is all Obama’s fault. Looking back on the course of the Syria crisis, it is tempting to see this only as a story of lost opportunities, serial missteps, and inept decision-making. The outcomes have been truly horrific—as many as 300,000 killed, millions of refugees, the rise of the Islamic State, or ISIS, and a disintegration of regional order that the world will be grappling with for at least a generation. This might seem to be a clear failure of American policy. But when one weighs the possibilities for greater U.S. action alongside competing goals, and the demands of managing trade-offs and risks, it is more accurately a cautionary tale of the limits to American power, or anyone else’s.
Given the threat ISIS poses and how horrific the situation in Syria has become, one must constantly ask what the U.S. could have done differently. Aside from a full-scale intervention like in Iraq in 2003, were there alternative courses in Syria or Iraq? The short answer is yes. One must acknowledge, however, that none of these alternatives would have been easy, may not have worked, and risked making things even worse.
Six possibilities stand out.
Continued..........
Raqqa: No reports in the western media about the failed #Assad regime offensive in Western #Raqqa, but huge coverage 2 weeks ago.
Russia blasts senior UN officials for criticizing Syria's government
http://read.bi/28Ls84L
FootageQuote:
UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - Russia blasted senior United Nations officials on Tuesday for their criticism of the behavior of Syria's security forces during the country's five-year civil war and failure to acknowledge that those troops are fighting terrorist groups.
Speaking at a special meeting of the U.N. General Assembly, U.N. humanitarian chief Stephen O'Brien and U.N. assistant secretary-general for human rights Ivan Simonovic criticized all warring parties, including the government, for rampant violations of international humanitarian and human rights law.
Their assessments of the situation in Syria came after U.N. peace mediator Staffan de Mistura cited recent progress in unifying Syria's fractious opposition and in bringing aid to besieged areas, though the process was fragile. He said a new full round of peace talks was unlikely before July.
Deputy Russian U.N. Ambassador Vladimir Safrankov took issue with the criticism of the Syrian government.
"Today's discussion ... is being held in such a way as if there are no terrorist threats in Syria," he told the 193-nation Assembly. "Why aren't you saying that these officers, generals and soldiers are facing terrorist organizations - the Islamic State, Nusra Front, al Qaeda?"
He said a real ceasefire was needed and that Russia and the United States were doing what they could to push for one.
Russia, like Iran, is a staunch ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and is using its military to provide air cover for Syrian government forces.
O'Brien presented a number of statistics about the damage the war has done to the Syrian population: life expectancy has dropped by 20 years; half the population is forcibly displaced; 13.5 million people are in urgent need of aid; and 80 percent of Syrians now live in poverty.
"Warring parties have displayed a brazen and brutal disregard for international humanitarian and human rights law," he said.
O'Brien said the government was the main force behind the siege of some 590,000 civilians in Syria and that the horrors of the war make people flee abroad, hundreds of whom end up drowning in the Mediterranean at the hands of human traffickers.
Simonovic cited "millions of human rights violations" in Syria. He said the conflict began with violations against peaceful protesters in 2011 who were calling for freedom of expression and assembly.
"This should have led to reforms and peaceful political development instead of the violent crackdown that unleashed the unspeakable violations we see today," he said. "Terrorists gained ground in this lawless environment."
1 child killed, 5 civ wounded in another #Assad/#Putin air attack on #Aleppo city.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aVd2g2PUKmc …
Also today the #Assad/#Putin coalition conducted air strikes on #Anadan near #Aleppo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nueUk1acBzY …
Footage
Rebels take some points in limited counteroffensive in #EastGhouta.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnJAMqQUh7Y …
The Russian T-90 tank shown here by Nur al-Din Zinki will be delivered to Nusra after a sharia court ruling.
Hassan Hassan @hxhassan
A video of my testimony on ISIS earlier today before the US Senate Homeland Security committee
http://www.hsgac.senate.gov/template...3-7D81A2EE52B9 …
starts at minute 24
http://www.businessinsider.de/state-...16-6?r=US&IR=T
The State Department's Syria revolt could have one important effect in the Middle East
Natasha Bertrand
REUTERS/Mike Theiler
Quote:
A dissent cable signed by 51 mid- to high-level State Department officials calling for US airstrikes against Syrian President Bashar Assad is unlikely to spur a military incursion into Syria in President Barack Obama's last months in office.
As The Washington Post's Greg Jaffe pointed out, "few things frustrate President Obama more than what he calls the 'Washington playbook' — a view that US military firepower is the solution to most of the toughest foreign policy problems."
Obama's deputy national security adviser, Ben Rhodes, made that point clear in a recent interview with the New York Times Magazine. He referred to Washington's foreign-policy establishment "the blob" and described the lengths to which the administration has gone to circumvent the beltway's agenda.
But some experts say the cable, which the White House says Obama has not read, will at least show Syrians and US allies in the Middle East that many in the administration are deeply unhappy with Obama's Syria policy — and that they will advocate for a new approach once he leaves office.
"I think it's useful in terms of telling Syrians, their neighbors, the regime and its supporters that there are indeed American officials who care deeply about the humanitarian abomination that's taken place and want to do something about it," Fred Hof, a former special adviser for transition in Syria at the State Department, told Business Insider in an email.
"That said, I doubt it will have any effect at all on President Obama and his White House entourage," he added.
Most analysts agree that the cable will have no effect on Obama's current policy, which is focused on defeating the Islamic State in Syria via a US-backed coalition of Kurdish and Arab fighters known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
The CIA has operated a separate train-and-equip program that supports anti-Assad rebel groups largely associated with the Free Syrian Army, but those factions have at times clashed with the Pentagon-trained SDF fighters. Their divergent military objectives and ethnicities have bred mistrust and fighting that is ultimately counterproductive to the cause of the revolution.
Still, "what these 51 signatories have done is spoken truth to power," Richard Haass, the former director of policy planning for the State Department and president of the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote in the Financial Times.
He continued: "And even if what they have to say is rejected now, it might be welcomed by the next occupant of the White House — especially if it were to be Hillary Clinton, who, as secretary of state, showed considerable willingness to use military force in pursuit of US foreign policy aims."
Clinton, the former secretary of state and the presumptive 2016 Democratic presidential nominee, has said that she would support the implementation of a no-fly zone inside Syria.
“I personally would be advocating now for a no-fly zone and humanitarian corridors to try to stop the carnage on the ground and from the air, to try to provide some way to take stock of what’s happening, to try to stem the flow of refugees,” Clinton said last October.
The cable also reportedly echoed echo Secretary of State John Kerry's position on how the US' Syria policy should look, as well as his frustration with Obama's unwillingness to act more forcefully against Assad.
The cable does not specifically mention a no-fly zone. But it calls for "a more assertive US role to protect and preserve opposition-held communities, by defending them from Assad’s air force and artillery." It also calls for "targeted military strikes in response to egregious regime violations of the Cessation of Hostilities."
That cessation, brokered by the US and Russia at the end of February, has been violated repeatedly by both the government and the rebels — Assad loyalists with airstrikes, and rebels with shelling — and is crumbling as peace talks falter in Geneva.
"With the repeated diplomatic setbacks of the past five years, together with the Russian and Iranian governments’ cynical and destabilizing deployment of significant military power to bolster the Assad regime, we believe that the foundations are not currently in place for an enduring ceasefire and consequential negotiations," the cable read.
Regardless of whether those foundations are ultimately established with US military intervention, however, the dissenters who signed it evidently thought participating in this kind of revolt was worth the very real risk it could pose to their careers.
"Death by suffocation is unlikely to be the fate of the Syria memo, both because of the press attention it garnered following its leak and because the large number of signatories is so noteworthy," former diplomat Joseph Cassidy wrote recently in Foreign Policy.
Dissenting, moreover, "is a difficult and emotional decision, and fear of retaliation is widespread," Cassidy said. And "while there are formal 'whistleblower'-type protections built into the Dissent Channel regulations, the State Department personnel system is so subjective, and an unblemished reputation is so essential to promotion and good assignments, that the potential for stealthy retaliation is significant."
Ultimately, the cable's signatories may feel it is worth having their name on something that makes explicit their frustration with the US' decision to refrain from intervening against Assad, whose brutality has fueled a civil war that has killed more than 400,000 people in just over five years and created the largest refugee crisis since World War II.
"Fifty-one State Department officials who have loyally helped to implement a dysfunctional White House policy have finally said, 'Enough,'" Hof, now a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, wrote in Foreign Policy on Monday.
He added: "Even if Obama is content to bequeath to his successor a humanitarian abomination and geopolitical catastrophe, these officials have placed before the world the proposition that the United States can and ultimately will do its duty."
Russia'n airstrike with Phosphorus on #Aleppo's northern suburb Huraytan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ThcXBCiUPEk …
Confirmed rebels have taken Tal Battal, Mazra’at Shahin & Kasajik from #ISIS in north rural #Aleppo. Sha’abania also reportedly taken
2 dozens dead in #Raqqa after #Russia'n airstrikes
-probably mainly residents
Again: Reports of infightings tonight btw #Assad-forces /Quds Brigade & Shiite foreign militias in northern #Aleppo's Sheikh Najjar
Interesting development......
It seems @ivanSidorenko1 account is deleted. It was one of the most reliable pro-Gov source
Another proAssad commenter stated he deactivated it and will do something more useful...IHMO he was defending something he could no longer do without it really appearing to be propaganda....as the ground reality changes kept proving he was lying...
This is how #Putin says "good morning" to the free Syrian people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QO21rQKMJV0 …
#Hayyan shortly ago.
Just another night of unthinkable #Russian terror vs. the Syrian population.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ThcXBCiUPEk …
What the heck happened to the Russian heavy CAS supported Iranian led charge to Raqqa.....????
Appears after the rather large IS counterattack led by over 10 VBIEDs each targeting a regime checkpoint holding up to 100 regime military which were then usually wiped out and it now appears a large number of the "Desert Hawks" are also encircled with no reinforcements in sight from either the Russians or Assad...
People were scratching their heads watching the extremely vulnerable #Tabqa road 'Blitz'. They were right.
Because it seemed to work in Palmyra and they really thought YPG/SDF and US were going for Raqqa?
The question is not why Suqur al Sahara would make such a grave mistake out of overconfidence but the Russians.
SDF stopped their push to Raqqa 2 weeks ago, long enough to reconsider offensive plans
IF half of the proAssad comments are anywhere close to accurate THEN Assad and the Russians literally took a major underlined major beating by IS AND notice the SDF/US SOF/CENTCOM offensive has also gone nowhere.....
ISIS released footage, showing destroyed pro-regime vehicles at the Thawra Oil field near #Tabqa.
Cannot confirm this comment as either Rhodes spin or actually having been stated by the Obama WH........probably a little of both as they pushed back on the DoS Dissent Letter claiming their policies were a total failure.
Obama said he is "very proud" of his Syrian policy.
BUT am assuming it was actually said as it ties into their "spun" WaPo article that SWJ posted claiming a highly successful Syrian/IS strategy was hard at work......
As someone who has been tracking Syria now for almost two years I am not sure exactly what he "is proud of" other than "not doing stupid ####"...and a cage of monkeys pounding keyboards can do as well.
This though is the Syrian ground reality and I hope he is not "proud of that".....
This is how #Putin says "good morning" to the free Syrian people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QO21rQKMJV0 …
#Hayyan shortly ago.
Just another night of unthinkable #Russian terror vs. the Syrian population.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ThcXBCiUPEk …
4 year-old Haya Alloush victim of #Assad regime air attack targeted Kafranbel village #Idleb less than hour ago.
Dispatches: Incendiary Weapons Pose Civilian Threat in Syria | Human Rights Watch
https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/06/21/...n-threat-syria …
Part of the Obama/Rhodes WH is that they have totally allowed their personal biases to get in the way of a clear thinking and clear and concise decisions built around a clearly defined set of strategies...they basically "winged it for almost eight years" and no one even challenged that.
AGAIN IF the statement is correct then I cannot imagine either Obama/Rhodes is proud of supporting and contributing to genocide and war crimes and want that as part of their so called "legacy".....
CrowBat....this confirms your previous comments about the level of war materials and fuel on the Assad side....appears the Russian Syrian Express has seriously picked up the pace on their turnarounds and are going out heavily loaded....which confirms a serious resupply problem.....
Major shift in Russian Syrian Express movements....
Quick Turnaround: Heavily-laden #ВМФ BSF #ЧФ Yamal 156 transits southbound Bosphorus en route to #Tartus #Syria
Nothing new here in French business activities in a war zone....
Le Monde claims that French giant Lafarge’s plant was located in Jalabiya in northern Syria, controlled by ISIL militants.
The report notes that The French company made a deal with ISIL, so they allowed them to operate on their territory.
Le Monde claims that French giant Lafarge’s plant was located in Jalabiya in northern Syria, controlled by ISIL militants.
According to Le Monde, a French construction company Lafarge paid taxes to ISIL in 2013-2014 to continue operations in northern Syria.
NOTE: The French tire company Michelin had massive rubber tree planation's in SVN and in Cambodia and ran them throughout the entire VN war and yes even after SVN fell....they paid the local VC in each area of their plantations one French Franc per tree as a "war tax" and then demanded damages from the US military for trees hit/destroyed when the US Army had to clear the plantations of mainline bunkered in VC units....which used the plantations as R&R locations as they were near local villages and towns.
AND on occasions even flew NVA senior officers back and forth with their own short takeoff/land aircraft....
SO actually nothing new here from the French...just French businesses doing "business as usual"......
APPEARS that angry proAssad commenters have been accurate with their reporting.....Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
Regime fanboys say Suqur al Sahra paramilitary attached to #SAA abandoned actual SAA troops on the road #toRaqqa.
Appears the "Desert Hawks and Syrian Marines left the 555 Regiment trapped and surrounded....simply fled the battlefield....AND they are supposedly the so called "elite".......
Massive loss is being confirmed by Russian reporters.....
Eliot Higgins @EliotHiggins
Interesting post from a Russian reporter about Syrian Army collapse during their Raqqa campaign
https://m.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwa...t&compact=true …
@EliotHiggins in that post Russian "Private Military Company" - "Desert Hawks" is mentioned.
Which is corroborated by the Russian journo Roman Saponkov's account
https://twitter.com/ArtWendeley/stat...71399959674880 …
Source: http://sape.livejournal.com/312737.html
If I were Putin I would be seriously looking for the "exit door" right about now as he and Assad are not going to "retake" much more of Syrian territory.....actually might in fact be "losing even more territory" than held before the Russians came flying into Syria seven odd months ago.....
France is always playing for their own benefit........Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
France delays full adoption of Russia sanctions
https://euobserver.com/tickers/133921
Important to notice & explaining the never ending stream of ammunition like tank shells and Grad missiles to Nusra. https://twitter.com/MahirZeynalov/st...91797049122817 …
APPEARS the Turks are calling out both the US and Russia at the same time and actually if you think about it....Erdogan is correct in his statement.....
Erdogan says he cannot understand why Western nations call Nusra a terrorist group as it fights against ISIS, "just like the PYD."
One man's "terrorist" is another man's "freedom fighter"......comes back to haunt both Russia and US..........40 odd years later......
Just as the Obama/Rhodes WH ignores genocide and war crimes in Syria so do they ignore this in Iraq and core question is again...why would the Arab Sunni's trust anything the US says and or does......
Loveday Morris @LovedayM · Jun 20
In 4 1/2 years covering Syria and Iraq I've never seen conditions this bad. No tents. No water. No words. #Fallujah
Another great example of "not doing stupid ####" QUOTE/UNQUOTE....
And this Obama/Rhodes WH actually expects Arab Sunni nation states to listen to anything they say much less go back to Geneva....??
SyAA artillery positions in the vicinity of Raqqa province with some mortars, 2S1, BM-21, BM-27 Uragan
https://twitter.com/bm21_grad/status/745430042113511425
Wow....all of 30 minutes and that spent on saying what he has been doing which is actually to date not much of anything outside of "failure after failure"...he was "just going through the motions" as he knows he is out of a job in NOV anyway.....
Kerry Meets With State Department Officials Critical of U.S. Syria Policy
Secretary of state engaged in back-and-forth with diplomats who are pushing for change
http://www.wsj.com/articles/kerry-me...icy-1466548047
AND
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/22/us...=top-news&_r=0
BUT this appears to confirm just how "highly successful" the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH Syrian policies have been that Obama is "proud of".....
Hraytan Standard daily procedure now for many #Aleppo towns & villages to be hit w/ incendiary munitions by #Russia
https://youtu.be/XIeLGPIGxAg
So if "success to be proud of" is defined by death and destruction this WH is on a roll........
ProAssad/Russian trolls hard at work......
Jaish al-Islam fighting Assad's loyalists. Labeled as "#PMU fighting #ISIS in #Iraq" by @Hamosh84. @LlamameIshmael
IS battle tactics are relatively straight forward yet Assad, YPG/SDF/PKK and the entire Obama WH and CENTCOM appear to not "get it".....
It has taken FSA and JaN awhile but they fully counter them now.....
IS fights - small mobile units, swarming assaults, and quick withdrawals, avoiding casualties coupled with extensive use of the IS "cruise missile"....SBVIED......in large and accurate numbers against key positions....
When Hezbollah entered Syria, it gave Assad a boost that was soon reversed.
When Iraqi Shiite sectarian militias entered Syria, they gave Assad a boost that was soon reversed.
When Iran's Qassem Suleimani and his dogs poured into Syria, they gave Assad a boost, but that too was soon reversed.
Now even with Assad, Hizbollah, Iraq, Iran, Hazari Afghans & Russia.. I'm smelling a looming reverse.
BUT does Putin "smell it"???????
Seriously doubt it....
Kyle Orton is standing out as somebody having really clear insight into the 'great picture', and then being able to word that in fantastic fashion. My hat is off for his work.Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
*************
*************
More of 'funny' news about the catastrophic end of regime's 'On Tabqa' Offensive.
Namely, you know the situation is really bad when even such regime-fans like Leith Fadel aren't trying to downplay the catastrophe that struck loyalists, but start talking about 'disasters' and calling for court-martials:
- Desert Hawks and Syrian Marines left the 555th Regiment at Sufiyah and withdrew all the way to Zakiyah; 23 soldiers are confirmed dead; dozens MIA, 49 wounded
- I am literally sick to my stomach after hearing what happened in west Raqqa. Some of these commanders should be court marshaled.
- Disastrous turn of events force the Syrian Army to withdraw from west Raqqa:
Who knows: perhaps some day Eliah might going to come to the idea to call Suqour as-Sahra and Dir as-Sahel for what they are. Sectarian militias, composed of loyalist Ba'ath officers and gangs of Shabiha. Then it wouldn't be surprising these 'elite branches of Syrian Armed Forces' are running away and leaving the SyAA behind, and on its own.Quote:
The Syrian Armed Forces were filled with optimism this past weekend after they seized the Thawrah Oil Fields near the strategic Tabaqa Military Airport in west Raqqa.
However, this jubilant feeling would not last long, thanks in large part to the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham’s (ISIS) major counter-offensive along the Sukhanah-Tabaqa Road.
Not only did ISIS recapture the Thawrah Oil Fields, but they also fought their way to the Sufiyah Oil Fields that overlook the Rusafeh Crossroad.
While, this initially appeared to be a small setback for the Syrian Armed Forces; it would turn disastrous on Monday after the Desert Hawks and Syrian Marines abruptly withdrew from the village of Albu Allaj and Rusafeh Crossroad. Unbeknownst to the Syrian Arab Army’s 555th Regiment at the Rusafeh Crossroad, they were about to lose their second and third lines of defense.
ISIS ultimately overran the Syrian Arab Army’s positions at Rusafeh, resulting in a disorganized retreat that left behind weapons and several soldiers. According to a military source, 23 soldiers have been confirmed “killed-in-action” (KIA); 49 soldiers were wounded; and dozens of others are currently “missing-in-action” (MIA).
The soldiers that considered MIA are believed to be either dead, captured, or trapped behind enemy lines. On Tuesday, the Syrian Armed Forces remained idle at the Zakiyah Crossroad in west Raqqa. Currently, all of the Syrian Armed Forces involved in this offensive have been ordered to remain on standby – no plans to continue this assault have been communicated to Al-Masdar News.
...
**********
Not to be outdone, some Russian reporter is citing similar details (roughly): catastrophe in Raqqa (and east of Palmyra too). Daesh 'attacked Suqour as-Sahra around 19.00hrs causing it to flee', many 'SAA' soldiers dead', 'Raqqa Task Force completely destroyed' and forced out of the Raqqa Governorate (i.e. its forward lines are about 2-3km inside Aleppo Governorate now). Daesh attacked the Syria Tel with 'dozens of car bombs', causing 'hundreds of casualties', and some 'SAA' (probably that 555th SF Regiment) are trapped there now inside a small pocket.
Mind: subsequently - and apparently after realizing what a panic he's causing - he changed the tune of his messages to 'organized withdrawal'. Ho-hum...
Considering Russian SF troops were around too, one is left to wonder what happened with them...
*************
On the top of this, the Daesh claims the capture of two tanks and a 23mm cannon on the Ithriya-Raqqah road.
My assumption is that this is only the start of actual problems. Namely, regime simply has not enough troops to do what it is trying to do in so many places, while there is meanwhile a clear limit of what Putler is ready to do for Assad, and the IRGC able.
In this case, the regime went for the Daesh all on its own. The Daesh figured out that the loyalists were advancing on a narrow front along one road, and then attacked simultaneously at several points into their northern or southern flank. In this way, it cut them off from reinforcements, then prompted survivors to flee in all possible directions, and then choped up remaining pockets of resistance.
To make things better, this happened after all the possible pro-regime tweeps were reporting 'dozens of Russian air strikes' and 'air support' for this operation. Eventually, it turned out the VKS is doing its usual business of massacring civilians instead of providing CAS - this time in Raqqa. There are already reports citing 'dozens of casualties'.
Shame on all of them.