P.W. Singer: No COIN planes necessary
There has been some discussion on SWC about the Air Force's move to field low-cost COIN/CAS aircraft for irregular warfare. Folks seem to be generally bullish about the idea, both here and elsewhere, so I thought it interesting to see P.W. Singer take a shot at the program:
Quote:
Just like the movie, though, this plan may seem appealing because of the guts and glory of the pilots who would fly these fabulous old planes back into battle (indeed, one of the entrants is even a version of the P-51 Mustang). But it doesn't stand up to much scrutiny. It is somewhat questionable to add 100 new planes (if one can describe 50-year-old designs as "new") at the very same time that the Air Force is seeking to accelerate the retirement of about 250 F-15s, F-16s and A-10s. Unlike these proven multi-role aircraft, light propeller planes could only be used at the low end of war, not against China or even Iran.
Moreover, in its haste to show that it is not focused on the next war, the Air Force may be trying to fight the last war. These planes won't be deployable for use in Iraq or Afghanistan until 2013 at best. The plan thus rests on two huge assumptions: 1) that we'll still be fighting counterinsurgencies there or elsewhere for which we'll need 100 more planes, and 2) while we are going back in time militarily, our enemies won't be going forward. Even within insurgencies, various non-state actors like Hezbollah already field anti-aircraft artillery and surface-to-air missiles; now we would just be providing them with easier targets.
For operations that need planes to fly low and slow in support of troops on the ground, actually new technologies, like the MQ-9 Reaper unmanned system, have already proved to be far more effective. The old planes rely on the pilot's "Mark II eyeballs"; the drone carries Gorgon Stare, a technology that monitors 12 high-powered cameras at once. Reaper also carries almost double the weapons and can stay on the scene four times as long. Drones are admittedly less fun to fly, but that's not how we are supposed to make serious weapons decisions.
The ultimate kicker is that the very partners the Air Force claims it is buying the planes to train and fight with don't actually want them. The head of the Iraqi air force reportedly wants F-16s instead, while the head of the Afghan National Army Air Corps wants Predators. Perhaps they haven't seen the movie?
I am inclined to disagree with Singer on a number of points. For one, I think it is pretty patronizing to imply that the Air Force is trying to rekindle their scarf-wearing glory days rather than attempting to realistically tackle a legitimate criticism of their force structure. If anything, even if one disagrees with the program, they should be commended for displaying some 'out of the box' thinking that appeared to be woefully lacking of late (e.g., the efforts SecDef Gates had to go through to increase Predator sortie rates).
I am also skeptical of the idea that Predators are the answer. Drones are expensive--they require an extremely sophisticated C2 network and other high-end infrastructure investments--so if you're looking for a low-cost solution they probably wouldn't be the best choice (also why they would be a terrible idea for the Afghan Air Force, amazing Singer is even taking that argument seriously). And there is something to be said for having two pilots in the loop, on station, peering down from a bubble canopy at the fight (not to mention their FLIR pods).
I am more sympathetic to the arguments about survivability, but those cut against Preds and Reapers too. Also the Columbians seem to do well with their Tucanos against a fairly sophisticated and well-armed irregular opponent.
All in all, the op-ed seems like a cheap and ill-informed shot against the Air Force (with some legitimate arguments). Anyone else think Singer may be going a little 'drone-happy' ever since publishing Wired for War?
Thanks for the link, Jesse9252
I'm often asked why I'm unreasonably and implacably opposed to 'Think' Tanks and academics who are 'Strategists' or military experts. Theoreticians with considerable book knowledge and little experience are particularly bothersome... :mad:
Then I read ill-informed, rather ignorant and unduly patronizing articles like that from Singer and I recall why that's the case... :wry:
Aside from that pseudo-psychobabble about scarves which demeans the writer, not the aviators, the points made by you and others are all valid. I'll also point out that any turboprops bought won't last long enough due to normal wear and tear to be around if we have a China problem. As for Iran, he apparently is unaware of the moonscape that is Iranian territory... :eek:
No question UAVs have their uses but there are many things they cannot do and he misses the point of in-theater availability. He also should be aware that the F-16 and other fast movers can indeed do CAS -- but Troops and the JTACs on the ground in Afghanistan will opt for the A-10, the AH-64 and a Kiowa in that order given the call. I suspect there's a reason for that. :cool:
Dippy article that contributes little and demonstrates a lot of arrogance, only slight knowledge and not much else.