Al-Qaeda’s Playbook: Persistence toward the Caliphate
A short review by Professor Bruce Hoffman:http://news.siteintelgroup.com/blog/...-the-caliphate
Starts with:
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Once again, the conventional wisdom in Washington about al-Qaeda (AQ) and the broader jihadi terrorist threat has been proven wrong. The wishful thinking passing for analysis since the beginning of the year that the split within the movement resulting in the expulsion of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) from the AQ fold would simultaneously weaken both Core AQ and ISIS—now pretentiously re-named the Islamic State (IS)—has been dramatically disproven by the latter's lightning thrust into Iraq and seizure of the northern and western parts of the war-torn country.
Al Qaeda opens branch in the 'Indian Subcontinent
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archiv...ranc-print.php
Quote:
As Sahab, al Qaeda's official media outlet, released a lengthy video promoting the creation of al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent today. The video, which was published on various Internet video sites, including YouTube, features Ayman al Zawahiri as well as Asim Umar, the new emir of al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and Usama Mahmoud, the group's spokesman. The video was translated by the SITE Intelligence group.
"A new branch of al-Qaeda was established and is Qaedat al-Jihad in the Indian Subcontinent, seeking to raise the flag of jihad, return the Islamic rule, and empowering the Shariah of Allah across the Indian subcontinent," Zawahiri says in the opening of the video, according to the translation by SITE.
Business should be good for this franchise since it is focused on of the most densely populated areas in the world with a wide spectrum of social and political issues, and questionable security forces.
Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh will need to cooperate at unprecedented levels to cut out this cancer before it metastasizes.
Why India is important and unfriendly to AQ
Bill,
In response and citing only one section:
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I know there are many who think AQ can't establish a presence in India, but I think that is wishful thinking. India has more people living in abject poverty than all of Africa, and much of its large Muslim population lives in poverty and has a history of being discriminated against. Islamic terrorist events happen in India periodically already, so it is probable AQ will enjoy some success, how much depends on a lot of factors.
It is interesting that AQ has to date been unable to have a presence in India, even though the jihadist cause has some adherents and can launch effective attacks (I exclude Mumbai as being an external operation).
From a global perspective it is important that the jihadist cause fails in India. Elsewhere there are posts, if not threads, debating whether AQ plus gains most where there are poor Muslims discriminated against.
ISIS overtakes al Qaeda: What’s next?
http://www.fpri.org/geopoliticus/201...eda-whats-next
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Those who assessed that bin Laden’s death would be of no consequence for al-Qaeda have been proven wrong. Bin Laden, along with a select few of his top lieutenants and protégés who’ve been eliminated by drones, provided the last bits of glue that held a declining al-Qaeda network together. As discussed in the 2012 post “What if there is no al-Qaeda?”, al-Qaeda for many years has provided little incentive in money or personnel for its affiliates and little inspiration for its global fan base. Things have gotten so bad that rumors suggest Ayman al-Zawahiri may dissolve al-Qaeda entirely, that’s right, al-Qaeda might QUIT! I’ll address these rumors in a separate post next week. Until then, here is what I see as the good and bad for al-Qaeda and ISIS this year.
A few tables and graphs at the link showing the growth of ISIS influence and the decline of AQ's influence.
Compares good and bad news for both. While we sought to weaken the cohesion of these various groups, it is apparent that these divided loyalties have only contributed to an increase of terrorist activity.
Jihadi Fractures: two charts
Video of Islamic State capabilities impresses military experts
Video of Islamic State capabilities impresses military experts
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2015/04/2...abilities.html
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But beyond the outcome of the refinery battle, military analysts who’ve viewed the video find it alarming because it shows that the Islamic State retains a surprisingly high level of military skill despite months of daily airstrikes by U.S. aircraft and their coalition allies.
“The overall takeaway from this and several other videos like it, and this opinion is borne out by the facts on the ground, is that Daash remains better trained, more motivated, better led and supported by a logistical infrastructure that the Iraqi government is literally incapable of delivering to their own troops,” said one former British special forces soldier who consults with the Iraqi Kurdish government on military affairs. He spoke only on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of his role in Iraq. Daash is an Arabic acronym for the Islamic State.
Much more in the report, well worth the read. It is an honest assessment from folks on the ground who are not spinning a narrative. It raises important questions on why ISIS is producing more competent foot soldiers than Iraq. I suspect the answers will make us uncomfortable, which normally results in an organizational state of denial.