Right, but it's too often ignored that the overthrow of Yanukovych triggered this crisis in its current state. For several years Yanukovych was looking for a way out of Ukraine's economic problems either through the EU or Moscow. And neither delivered. He would not have survived the 'reforms' the new government is implementing, which is why he abandoned the EU Association Agreement. And while it's agreeable that Yanukovych was corrupt, we only have the word of his militant successors describing the extent of it. This situation could have been avoided with the February agreement.Quote:
That the Ukrainian economy is in turmoil after all those events is all too natural.
How many "[well executed]" "key reforms" (read: austerity measures) claimed to be "smart" before the fact were actually well executed? The problem with the pro-austerity crowd is that when their policies are demonstrated to be abject failures, they retort that it wasn't sufficiently stringent or pure in its application. There is no evidence that Ukraine's experience with austerity will be any different than that of the Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, the US, UK, or even Russia. What is different in Ukraine is it's unstable political situation entering into a period of austerity.Quote:
Never waste a bitter crisis, kicking off key reforms and slashing subventions like on the enemys gas is smart if they execute it well with direct transfers to avoid too big of an demand shock.
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Lots of things to add but it will be key to not have a heavy depression before the long-needed necessary reforms and the aid kick off growth. The Ukrainian situation is of course totally different from the circumstances in practically all European countries who sufferd and are suffering a depression.
This is from Forbes:
This isn't about democracy. Or corruption. Yatsenyuk is unelected. He also has no interest in a future political career and is totally committed to the IMF's program. That's very useful for Washington. But being a banker and economist usually doesn't make a good politician. Would Americans find it acceptable if the Tea Party besieged the Congress and White House, installed Tea Cruz, and then went full sped ahead in slashing Medicare and Social Security before the next presidential election? Why not wait to implement any policies until after the election?Quote:
They like him because he’s pro Western,” says Vladimir Signorelli, president of boutique investment research firm Bretton Woods Research LLC in New Jersey. “Yatsenyuk is the the kind of technocrat you want if you want austerity, with the veneer of professionalism,” Signorelli said. “He’s the type of guy who can hobnob with the European elite. A Mario Monti type: unelected and willing to do the IMFs bidding,” he said.
The "perfect time" for whom? The people of Ukraine are no longer in control of their country. An unelected Western-backed technocrat with elite allies leads the administration in Kiev while Russia occupies Crimea and has amassed 30,000 soldiers on the border. In any language, this is a disaster for Ukraine, one precipitated by a coup in lieu of negotiations, and it will not be made easier by a policy of austerity. Yatsenyuk has 2 months to deliver a stablized economy to his successor in the May elections - I doubt he'll pull it off.Quote:
Perhaps it is the perfect time to tackle the big issues, with an enemy at the borders, strong financial support coming in and the iterim government taking most of the blame. There is no doubt that the IMF, EU and USA have to deliver, the strategy is mostly sound and it depends now on the hard task of executing it.
What do elections look like in a demographically divided, partially occupied, economically bankrupt, radicalized country?