Update on Houthi SAMs vs. UAE F-16(s) - No Dice
"Few hours ago, Houthi rebels tried to shoot down a UAE Air Force's F-16E Block 60 over Sanaa, Yemen by means of R-27T air to air missile launched from ground platform but they failed simply because the F-16 pilot launched flares."
Source: https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/st...61073078734854
Houthi Missiles: The Iran Connection; Scuds Are Not Dead Yet
The article asks:
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But are the Iranians really behind these, or are they modified missiles from North Korean in origin?
I think this is a key passage:
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In this article I take a closer look at the Burkan 2-H and how its increased performance was achieved. I do this using computer simulations of ballistic missile trajectories, with missile parameters based on properties of the Scud from open sources and an analysis of photographs and a launch video. The simulations confirm the similarities with the Iranian missile: a Scud-variant with the size and initial acceleration of the Burkan 2-H can only fly from Northwest Yemen to Riyadh if it carries as much propellant as the Qiam-1. Other versions of the Scud do not fit the data.
(Ends with) All in all, even without a detailed forensic investigation of the wreckage, it seems unlikely these missiles originate from anywhere other than Iran.
The author is Ralph Savelsberg is an associate professor at the Netherlands Defense Academy in Den Helder, specializing in missile defense.
Link:https://breakingdefense.com/2018/05/...-not-dead-yet/
2018 Red Sea Coast Offensive and the humanitarian disaster (two sources)
A useful map and chronology via AEI.
Link:http://https://www.criticalthreats.o...oast-offensive
The Soufan Group has a 47 pg. report 'The Forgotten War: The Ongoing Disaster in Yemen'.
Link:http://thesoufancenter.org/wp-conten...fan-Center.pdf
The Battle for Hodeidah: Two Views on What’s at Stake
Two experts provide some answers; with Gregory Johnsen and Fatima Abo Alasrar, from the Arabia Foundation.
Link:http://www.arabiafoundation.org/arab...hats-at-stake/
Al-Qaeda in Yemen says group will strike hard when time is right
A summary of a recent AQAP statement via BBC Monitoring (no link is provided to the original source):
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Al-Qaeda in Yemen (AQAP) has released a lengthy interview with its leading figure Khalid Batarfi, commenting on various aspects of the conflict in Yemen and the jihadist group's current position and future plans. The written interview conducted by AQAP's media arm al-Malahim was published on 20 June via AQAP's media outlet on the messaging app Telegram. Batarfi has been the face of AQAP since most of the group's top figures, including its former leader, died in US drone strikes in 2015.
Link:https://monitoring.bbc.co.uk/product/c1dpdb8k
Presumably there are clues within for the expert and reader.
2 Attachment(s)
Yemen: Houthis Hit Saudi Oil Tanker
Stratfor Situation Report: https://worldview.stratfor.com/situa...mpaign=article
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Houthi forces in Yemen who claimed to be targeting a Saudi warship struck a Saudi oil tanker in the RedSea, causing slight damage.
Why It Matters: Because attacks on oil tankers often alarm the international community, the incident could give the Saudi-led coalition a new justification for military action in Yemen.
Attachment 5575 Attachment 5576
For Background:
Stratfor Assessment: Missiles Remain a Potent Houthi Weapon (https://worldview.stratfor.com/artic...mpaign=article)
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- Despite continuous pressure from Saudi-led air operations, Houthi and Saleh loyalists in Yemen continue to pose a threat using ballistic missiles.
- It appears that local engineers have been able to modify ballistic missiles to increase their capabilities, and continue to have access to stockpiles to further their activities.
- There are no indications that rebels are near the indigenous production of missile systems, however. At this point Houthi and Saleh missile capabilities remain entirely dependent on existing stockpiles and foreign supply.
Assessing how the jihadis are doing
A short paper (19 pgs) by Elisabeth Kendall, a SME on the Yemen and who has visited parts recently. The Summary explains:
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Regional conflict and internal chaos have allowed militant jihadi groups to rise and flourish in Yemen. This paper analyzes two f the most prominent such groups, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Islamic State in Yemen (ISY), by scrutinizing the factors that led to their respective ascents, and examining the challenges and pressures that have caused their respective declines. By comparing and contrasting their operations, respective styles of leadership, and varying levels of community integration, this paper charts the path of jihadi militancy in Yemen and assesses its future in Yemeni politics and society.
Link:https://www.mei.edu/sites/default/fi..._Kendall_7.pdf
Yemen: US allies don’t defeat al-Qaida but pay it to go away
Hardly a surprise, this AP report covers several places in the Yemen.
Link:https://apnews.com/f38788a561d74ca78c77cb43612d50da