We should all try to be nice, really...
But this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Fuchs
has little bearing on the matter under discussion. Higher GDP does not necessarily translate into higher disposable income for the average Egyptian or higher capacity to buy food. It also doesn't necessarily translate into higher government revenues and thus higher capacity to subsidize wheat imports.
What we do see beyond doubt is that while Egypt's wheat imports fluctuate, the trend is steadily up, and while the world wheat prices fluctuate, the trend is also steadily up. That means the slice of Egypt's government revenue devoted to subsidized wheat imports has steadily increased (of course you realize that total trade deficit and government budget deficit are very different things). That means either pulling money from other parts of the budget or increasing government revenue or going deeper into debt, all of which pose difficulties of their own. Regardless of GDP and population, it's fairly clear that the cost of subsidized wheat imports to the Egyptian government had reached a level that made it impossible to avoid passing the increase on to consumers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Fuchs
A thirty-year one-man dictatorship was overdue. We need no facebook, wheat imports or other fashionable (Malthus is apparently never out of fashion!) explanations for Mubarak's demise.
Undoubtedly true, but these events do have triggers, and economic events can be triggers.
Egypt's inflation rates have been very high, well outstripping average personal income: almost 12% in 2010, over 18% in 2009. That's 30% in 2 years, and that tends to piss people off. Unemployment remains high, and overall population growth is less an issue than a large demographic bulge of young people entering the job market at a time when jobs are scarce.
Throw a steep sudden increase in staple food prices in on top of that and you turn incipient trouble into actual trouble.
In any event my previous comment was less on the role of food prices in sparking the uprising than on the potential impact of food prices on transition frustration. The people will want the government to make prices drop. Of course government's capacity to do this is limited, but that's not widely understood. This needs to be considered by economic policymakers and the multilateral bodies that set conditions for the loans and other assistance that a transition government will need. Subsidy structures will need to be dismantled, but trying to eliminate them all at once is likely to have a devastating political impact on what will already be a shaky government.
Approval isn't really the point, nor is what he believed...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Dayuhan
Some see it differently, some do not. In both cases memories may be colored by self-interest. I find it perfectly plausible that Saddam told people he had US approval, but the idea that someone of his experience could orchestrate a meeting in which a diplomat could say nothing of significance and then assign significance to anything she said is outside credibility.
It may be outside the credibility of you and I, even of most in the west. It is not outside the credibility of many in the ME.
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If Saddam believed the US would tolerate an invasion, it would not have been a consequence of anything April Glaspie said during that meeting.
Nor is Glaspie the point other than the fact that an Arabist who doesn't understand Arab customs is somewhat of a waste and that's the factor which caused me to intrude on your conversation... :rolleyes:
Quote:
...Claiming that he actually was given permission is, as previously stated, a load of bollocks.
While that may be true to you and to most in the west, it is not to most in the ME. However, you can of course ignore that and them. Unfortunately, I'm pretty sure most western governments should not do so else they'll likely make the same sorts mistakes in the area. And that is not a load of bollocks... ;)
Nothing the US did led Saddam to attack Kuwait, however, a lot of things the US did not do out of ignorance and arrogance aided and abetted the launching of that attack.
The Case That Egypt Diminishes AQ
http://blogs.reuters.com/bernddebusm...w-to-al-qaeda/
If you like backhanded swipes at Ma Clinton, it's there.
Conclusion:
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So, it is reassuring to know that America’s top spy, James Clapper, sees the link between the Muslim Brotherhood gaining political space and the adverse effect that would have on al Qaeda. “With respect to what’s going on in Egypt,” he told a House Intelligence Committee hearing, “there is potentially a great opportunity here to come up with a counter-narrative to al Qaeda.
Yes, I know that Clapper's head is being called for by the usual suspects.
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As to phrasing the Iranian argument in terms of their "nuclear threat", geez, isn't this The Second Time As Farce? What, no Niger purchases?
Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose
Has anyone else noticed that the Egyptian armed forces seem to have been following along with much of the advice given by Frank Kitson in Chap. 5 "The Non-Violent Phase" of his Low Intensity Operations, Subversion, Insurgency, and Peacekeeping (reprint from Hailer Publishing; and original in pdf) ?
See also this piece by Eric Margolis, Egypt's Faux Revolution: Bait and Switch on the Nile, which doesn't cite Kitson; but which suggests that the counter-insurgency strategy has been a "bait and switch" (which is what Kitson's Chap. 5 boils down to).
The "new" government seems to have gained something of a grace period, from Google Inc. executive Wael Ghonim:
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“If you get paid 70 dollars, this is not the time to ask for 100 dollars,” Ghonim said in an interview with Bloomberg Television yesterday. “If you really care about this country, it is not about you anymore. This is about restoring you know, that stability. This is about sending signals to everyone that Egypt is becoming stable and we are working on that.”
Ghonim, 30, who was released on Feb. 8 after being held by the government in secret detention for more than a week, said he met military leaders over the weekend and he believes they are “really sincere” about bringing about the change demanded by the Egyptian people.
“They realize the value of business and creating jobs,” the activist said. “We had a half an hour discussion about the challenges of how to get people back to work and how to create jobs. They are aware of the problems.”
And, although unrest still exists, the focus has shifted to the economy generally and to specific sectors:
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Egypt's Transitional Government Struggles to Retain StabilityBy Leland Vittert, Published February 14, 2011, FoxNews.com
CAIRO, Egypt – As Egypt struggles to return to normal just three days after former president Hosni Mubarak resigned, hundreds of government workers went on strike Monday over wages and corruption.
The Egyptian transition government, led by the army, tried to contain a wave of protesters who defied orders not to strike. Bus drivers and ambulance workers walked off the job and a group of police protesters marched through the streets.
The instability comes as the Egyptian people are demanding to know what the next government will look like and how it will begin an economic recovery. .....
Regards
Mike