random reflections from Gaza
The overwhelming impression (on a short and rather limited visit) is a profound sense of dysfunctional stasis.
The economy is in tatters. Only a handful of goods (about 3 dozen) are allowed in by Israel, under strictly limited conditions. Almost everything else—car parts, shoes, cigarettes, livestock, chocolate bars, stationary, bathroom fittings, you name it, for 1.5 million people—comes in through the tunnels. The tunnels, coupled with UN emergency relief, prevents serious malnutrition, effectively providing a sort of safety net for what is in effect a massive case of collective punishment.
As for Hamas, it is certainly deterred from attacking Israel, but is firmly entrenched in power. It does face lively internal debates between Islamist softliners (who believe that Gazans should be largely free to choose more religious or secular lifestyles as a matter of personal choice) and hardliners (who believe that, having won power, the movement should now use that power to assertively transform society). It certainly isn't Iran or Saudi Arabia (yet).
Hamas militants chafe at Israeli deterrent threats, but the movement also feels it has a strong hand in negotiations for the release of prisoners/Shalit.
There are some dangers of the movement being corrupted by the attractions of wealth and power, but to date I've seen little evidence that this has happened in a major way, and certainly not on the scale that it once afflicted Fateh here.
There are also small groups of al-Qaida wannabes, and the danger that disaffected Hamas elements, unhappy with the movement's lack of Islamist radicalism, will join hardline jihadist splinters. On the other hand, Hamas clearly views this as a threat, and responds to the danger with quite forceful suppression of such groups. For much the same reason, we also have a little contingent of Hamas guards outside where I'm staying.
Finally, having come here for years, I am struck by the strikingly inverse correlation between the sophistication of the Israeli side of the Erez crossing point and the state of the "peace process." In the mid-1990s, not long after the establishment of the Palestinian Authority and when political optimism was high, there was almost no crossing at all. (Indeed, my confused taxi driver once turned into an IDF military post by mistake, surprising several sleepy sentries who compensated by pointing rifles at us and shouting in alarm). As the peace process encountered difficulties, a trailer-like portacabin was installed... then, as things grew worse, a few potted plants and signposts. Then it became a slightly larger (but still temporary-looking) structure, at a time when it was becoming harder and harder to enter and exit. Now, it is something akin to a glassy airport terminal.. except that it stands almost empty, since almost no one can use it.
This time, while I was waiting for my preclearance to be cleared (the Israeli end can also be a testament to universality of bureaucracy), I noticed that the handle of the border police officer's exit stamp itself was adorned with a Winnie-the-Pooh sticker. Far from being out of place, this somehow seemed as appropriate as any other recent analysis I knew of the peace process. To quote E. E. Milne:
"I don't see much sense in that," said Rabbit.
"No," said Pooh humbly, "there isn't. But there was going to be when I began it. It's just that something happened to it along the way."
entertaining games vs Islamist indoctrination
And it would appear that, again this year, the UN's "summer camps of debauchery" are proving much more popular than Hamas' own summer camps (to the latter's annoyance):
Hamas, UNRWA compete over entertaining Gaza children
Xinhua
12:13, June 16, 2010
Quote:
Mohamed Atallah, a teacher and one of the mentors in a major summer camp run by the United Nations Relief and Work Agency (UNRWA) on Gaza beachside insisted that mentors are not teaching school children any politics, but only entertaining them.
On Sunday, UNRWA inaugurated its own summer camps in the Gaza Strip to entertain refugees' schoolchildren. Streets of Gaza City saw UNRWA vehicles and hundreds of UNRWA children holding summer camps flame.
UNRWA summer camps were inaugurated a day before Gaza-ruling Islamic Hamas movement started its own camps. Hamas said in a banner that its camps "are religious and cultural and not summer camps of debauchery," in reference to UNRWA camps.
"Here, it's not allowed to think or talk about politics, we differ from other summer camps run by other organizations," Atallah said, adding "we are not linked to any political group, but we try our best to help the children to get out of the horrible situation they had passed over the past several years."
Attallah was speaking to Xinhua as dozens of UN blue flags, placed on top of a huge square blue tent, were fluttering, and hundreds of Gaza refugees' schoolchildren were enjoying a good time on the white-sand beach.
...
Last year the kids at the UNRWA Gaza summer camps set the world record for the most kites flown simultaneously. This year they're trying for the world record for the most basketballs bounced at once. Clever stuff by some very dedicated UN staff, for some kids who could certainly do with the chance to enjoy themselves.
The politics, tactics and strategy of Hamas
A KoW podcast by Nina Musgrave, a Ph.D. student:http://warstudies.podomatic.com/entr...02_56_47-08_00
Her thesis is:
Quote:
An analysis of the politics, tactics and strategy of Hamas since January 2006, when it became a democratically elected political party. It aims to analyse the political trajectory and internal dynamics of Hamas in light of its electoral success, and explore the extent to which Hamas’s new role as an elected entity has expanded its strategic options or constrained its movement.
Link:http://www.kcl.ac.uk/sspp/department.../musgrave.aspx
Gaza invasion again: some thoughts
As the tension rises between Hamas in Gaza and Israel, with rockets fired into Israel and IDF missile strikes on 'militants' this review popped up via Twitter. There's also the murders in the West Bank and reprisals alongside the street rioting:
Quote:
Given the current crisis, it is worth thinking through what a new Gaza war would look like based on evidence drawn from the 2008 war. In what follows then I conduct a type of thought experiment. I offer a summary of the Gaza War/Op. Cast Lead. I then provide some preliminary thoughts on the contours/outcome of a new IDF invasion into Gaza.
Link:http://zurilinetsky.wordpress.com/20...-to-repeat-it/
Gaza invasion again: some thoughts Part 2
A concise 2012 blog article by Professor John Schindler 'Gaza and the Utility of Force'. He starts with:
Quote:
The recent winding down of the latest round of fighting over Gaza, the week of stand-off strikes which the Israelis have termed
Operation Pillar of Defense, ought to raise questions for all Western militaries about what exactly force is for these days.
(
It ends with) If Israel wants to find a happier fate it needs to think hard, and fast, about solutions to the Palestinian problem which do not center on the IDF.
Link:http://20committee.com/2012/11/23/ga...lity-of-force/