This Week at War: Could North Korea be the next Afghanistan?
This Week at War: Could North Korea be the next Afghanistan?
Entry Excerpt:
East Asia on the brink of small war.
Here is the latest edition of my column at Foreign Policy:
Topics include:
1) A different kind of small war in Korea?
2) Two intelligence reports mean more Afghan headaches for Obama
A different kind of small war in Korea?
This week, South Korea's government took steps to prepare the country for a military confrontation with North Korea. Artillery batteries practiced their gunnery and the country had its first serious civil defense drill in decades. Within the next few days, the South promised another artillery exercise from Yeonpyeong Island, the island the North shelled for an hour on Nov. 23. Should the South carry through with this exercise, Pyongyang made its own promise, a riposte "deadlier than what was made on Nov. 23." The mood in the South has hardened -- another round of six-party talks is out, military preparation and air raid drills are in.
After two unanswered provocations by the North -- the attack on Yeonpyeong and the sinking of the warship Cheonan -- the South's political leaders have concluded that it now pays to be tough and have promised retaliatory airstrikes for future Northern attacks. This change in attitude has consequences for Obama administration officials, who would surely prefer not to be drawn into an armed skirmish. U.S. officials likely agree in principle with a tougher policy toward the North. Much less agreeable to them is letting the South Korean government determine by itself how to retaliate after the next provocation. The United States will want to demonstrate that it is a reliable ally, while also maintaining control over its own fate. How the U.S. government manages this dilemma during a fast-moving crisis remains to be seen.
On Dec. 13, the South Korean army sent its artillery forces into the field for a workout, conducting gunnery exercises at 27 sites. Much more important was a nation-wide civil defense drill on Dec. 15, the first such serious drill in decades. 300,000 police and Civil Defense Corps members mobilized for the 20-minute exercise, herding pedestrians and schoolchildren into bombs shelters and subway stations while South Korean fighter jets buzzed overhead. Eleven million South Koreans participated in the exercise. In addition, the government plans to spend $45 million next year on new bomb shelters. Given Seoul's vulnerability to North Korean artillery fire, a South Korean threat of retaliation previously lacked credibility. Seoul's renewed commitment to civil defense has bolstered the credibility of its new retaliatory policy.
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‘Small war’ in Korea is postponed
‘Small war’ in Korea is postponed
Entry Excerpt:
Today, South Korean marines proceeded with an artillery training exercise on Yeonpyeong Island. Instead of delivering “brutal consequences beyond imagination” if the exercise went ahead, the North Korean government instead concluded that it was “not worth reacting” to the 94-minute drill.
South Korea called the North’s bluff and the North folded its hand, at least for now. The South boosted its leverage in several ways. First, it evacuated civilians on the island and in other forward locations. Second, it waited for clear weather and put F-15 fighter-bombers in the air, presumably in preparation for counter-battery strikes against North Korean artillery positions. Finally, about 20 U.S. soldiers participated in the exercise as observes, or more accurately as “trip-wires” for a U.S. retaliatory response against the North. The North’s leaders likely concluded that in this case they did not possess escalation dominance. The North has exposed itself as a bluffer and will have to run much greater risks in the future to reestablish its reputation for ferocity.
This weekend’s drama was a breakthrough for the South Korean government.
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nK Threatens War Over Christmas Lights
http://www.aolnews.com/2010/12/22/no...istmas-lights/
Quote:
North Korea's Grinch-like military reportedly is threatening to shell a floodlit metal tower -- decked with 100,000 light bulbs and topped with an illuminated cross -- that the South has erected on its side of the heavily militarized border, according to the South's Yonhap News Agency. The Christmas tree-shaped beacon was switched on Tuesday night at a ceremony that saw a Santa-hatted choir -- surrounded by gun-toting marines -- sing "Joy to the World" and other carols.
North Korea's uranium programme heightens concern
could be related to this...
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/MA22Dg01.html
"North Korea set on third nuclear test"
It might be related, but on the other hand I concur with the authors in terms of this being a `when not if' situation. I also expect them to do some things to try to look strong at China's expense. It's very hard to predict what they'll do however because their government is pathologically irrational, and it's not restricted to one area of government, or only a few of their leaders. The crazy runs deep in that country.
To give one example (of which perhaps there are no end...), my first thought was that they might wait some period of time until after Hu's visit to the US had concluded and settled down some before they lit new fires. Then I remembered that they most recently broke the armistice in the middle of China's hosting of the Asian Games. When that happened I was pretty surprised at the level of disdain for China's interests that they demonstrated with that aggression.
couldn't agree more, but...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
anonamatic
I wouldn't rule a collapse out at this point at all. I'm not sure the whole dynastic transition is going very smoothly. That especially after all the hard case military adventure on their part did not result in the sorts of external activities they could apply the usual twists to lie & attempt to claim victory from. Worse, they crapped on China using the same sort of face losing tactics employed by Russia during the Olympic games during the Asian games. They broke the armistice, everyone there knows they did, it probably carries more weight there and in China than it seems to as well. Since SK hardened up afterwards, it didn't work very well for them in that sense either.
They may try to provoke more serious violence to quell domestic discontent too. The problem with any look at NK is that it's a Disneyland of Crazy. It's impossible, and unreasonable to expect any rational behavior from them, even when everyone in the country is starving.
this last part in bold... All actors are rational and predictable so long as you are able to understand their frames of reference regarding reasonable and acceptable... now in this case getting that nut cracked is really really hard . I just think we too often ascribe crazy or irrational to behavior/decisions we don't understand... as if they are un-understandable:wry: as opposed to lacking the right decision framework to understand/predict...
I am officially off my soapbox
Kim Jong Il reported dead
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/s...ies/52058036/1
Quote:
Kim's death was announced Monday by the state television from the North Korean capital, Pyongyang.
Kim is believed to have suffered a stroke in 2008 but he had appeared relatively vigorous in photos and video from recent trips to China and Russia and in numerous trips around the country carefully documented by state media. The communist country's "Dear Leader" — reputed to have had a taste for cigars, cognac and gourmet cuisine — was believed to have had diabetes and heart disease...
Bets on how long the son lasts, if he is in fact the face of leadership who is paraded out tomorrow?