The Houthi War Machine: From Guerrilla War to State Capture
This is a 'long read' via CTC, by Michael Knights who has visited the Houthi areas and is an interesting read on how they fight, not the fighting itself.
The Abstract:
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Abstract: The Houthi rebels have been at war with the Yemeni government almost constantly since 2004. In the first six years, the Houthis fought an increasingly effective guerrilla war in their mountainous home provinces, but after 2010, they metamorphosed into the most powerful military entity in the country, capturing the three largest cities in Yemen. The Houthis quickly fielded advanced weapons they had never before controlled, including many of Iranian origin. The story of how they moved from small-arms ambushes to medium-range ballistic missiles in half a decade provides a case study of how an ambitious militant group can capture and use a state’s arsenals and benefit from Iran’s support.
Link:https://ctc.usma.edu/houthi-war-mach...state-capture/
U.S. approach to Yemen is challenged as country splinters and government vanishes
An article in Newsweek and for once Eastern Yemen, the province known as Hadramawt, with the the port city of Mukulla is the focus.
Link:https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...79_story.html?
Recipe for a disaster: Yemen's three flexible wars
Via Lawfare Gregory D. Johnsen, a SME; the Editor's foreword:
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The war in Yemen has gone from bad to worse, leaving tens of thousands dead and hundreds of thousands of civilians at risk from disease and malnutrition. The war's complexity rivals its brutality, with a dizzying array of actors with discreet and shifting agendas. Gregory Johnsen of the Arabia Foundation describes the three wars Yemen is facing: the struggle against terrorism, the civil war, and the regional struggle encompassing Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran. Each has its own dynamics, and together they are shattering Yemen.
He ends with:
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There is, simply put, no longer a single Yemen. There are multiple Yemens and no single individual or group capable of re-uniting them into a coherent whole. Yemen has too many groups with too many guns to ever be a unified state again. The civil war, which has taken a back seat to the regional conflict over the past three years, will eventually resume at full force. And when it does, the fighting it produces will be bloody and protracted.
Link:https://www.lawfareblog.com/yemens-three-wars
"Off ramps" for AQAP fighters?
Via WoTR Gregory D. Johnsen has a short commentary on AQAP, it ends with:
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Contrary to the picture painted by the numbers, AQAP is the weakest it has ever been. Decimated by drone strikes and challenged by rivals, its international terrorist side is a shadow of its former self. Only its domestic insurgency side — bolstered by Yemen’s messy war — is growing. If this side can be reduced and contained, AQAP can be defeated. But if it is allowed to remain and continue to grow, the group may be able to resurrect the international side of its organization and become a global terrorist threat once more.
Link:https://warontherocks.com/2018/10/th...ian-peninsula/
U.S. support for this war represents a strategic and moral failure.
An article from Lawfare by a SME, although the focus is Yemen there is a wider application. Daniel Byman as Editor adds:
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...it has lessons for similar efforts when allies wage "limited" wars. Far from being an efficient, low-cost use of resources, Rand argues that these wars are not likely to achieve the results Washington wants, yet will implicate the United States in whatever goes wrong.
Link:https://www.lawfareblog.com/extricat...red-operations
Saudi Arabia’s Blood Pact With a Genocidal Strongman
Fascinating commentary on the Yemeni conflict and the role of the Sudan - mercenaries for the coalition - which is fraught with problems. The sub-title is a reminder of the past:
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The Saudis and UAE bribed Sudan's president to send Janjaweed fighters to be cannon fodder in Yemen. It's not working out.
Link:https://www.theamericanconservative....dan-yemen-uae/
Now just why a 'conservative' website would carry this I know not.
Yemen on the brink: how the UAE is profiting from the chaos of civil war
Recommended by a "lurker" as an excellent reporter; Ghaith Abdul-Ahad. It is a 'long read' and is based on what is happening in Aden. He is not complimentary about the UAE's role and their local allies - who appear to be more akin to bandits.
Link:https://www.theguardian.com/news/201...-of-civil-war?
The Failing Islamic State Within The Failed State of Yemen
An article (10 pgs) from the free, online journal Perspectives on Terrorism, by Elisabeth Kendall, a SME from Oxford University, who has been on the ground in the Yemen.
Link:https://www.universiteitleiden.nl/bi...-1/kendall.pdf
Understanding the Houthi Faction in Yemen
Via Lawfare and the Editor's Note explains:
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Yemen’s war, the world’s deadliest active conflict, has no end in sight. Many of its chief protagonists—including the Houthis, whose ties to Iran and hostility to U.S. allies put them at the center of the conflict—are not well understood. Sama’a al-Hamdani, the director of the Yemen Cultural Institute for Heritage and the Arts, does a deep dive on the Houthis. She details their goals and divisions, as well as how they might be induced to join Yemen’s nascent peace process.
Link:https://www.lawfareblog.com/understa...-faction-yemen
Leaving or reducing? The UAE's role.
Nervous of the crisis in the Gulf or the beginning of the end for the UAE role in the Yemeni Civil War? Now six days ago Reuters reported:
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The United Arab Emirates, a key member of the Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen, is scaling back its military presence there as worsening U.S.-Iran tensions threaten security closer to home, four western diplomatic sources said.
Link:https://www.reuters.com/article/us-y...-idUSKCN1TT14B
Followed up since, notably this in WINEP commentary. Here is a "taster":
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In short, the UAE argues that its drawdown is not just because of war fatigue, but also because its mission is largely complete in the south, and the conflict with the Houthis is now in the hands of UN negotiators rather than coalition military forces. Outside observers are often less generous in their view of the UAE’s decisions and efforts, however.
Link:https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/...e-saudi-arabia
Incidentally another military partner, Sudan, may have to review its reported fourteen thousand strong commitment, given the issues back home as the military hold onto power.
