War Is Boring: A New Civil War Could Break out in Libya
https://warisboring.com/a-new-civil-...cf0#.io8ubnwxy
Fresh fighting would pit the Libyan National Army against the Government of National Accord
by WOLFGANG PUSZTAI & ARNAUD DELALANDE
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Beginning in December 2016, the Saraya Defend Benghazi — also known as Benghazi Defense Brigade — an Islamist militia group that formed in June 2016 to oppose Gen. Khalifa Haftar’s Tobruk-based Libyan National Army, was involved in the attack on facilities in Libya’s Oil Crescent.
The LNA decisively repulsed the attacks. But the wider conflict is only deepening — and could spark a new civil war in Libya pitting the two major claimants to the country’s leadership. Haftar and his allies in Tobruk on one side. On the other, the Government of National Accord in Tripoli.
Resource constraints on both sides could head off further fighting — assuming the local allies of both Haftar and the GNA behave themselves.
The December fighting was fierce...
Libya: damned if we do and damned if we don’t
A SME has a report on the situation, which is summarized in the sub-title:
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Given the complex attitudes towards foreign interventions in Libya, we need a clear strategy that stands up to local, regional, and international scrutiny.
Or the closing paragraphs:
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This is exacerbated by the secrecy and ambiguity over the intentions of intervening countries. Ambiguity and lack of transparency create hearsay and fuel accusations, drawing interveners into the local dynamics of the conflict, making it impossible to be seen as an apolitical or non-partisan player. This cannot help but undermine diplomatic action. In the case of the GNA, the international intervention only fuelled accusations that it was little more than a puppet government, created by external powers and serving a foreign agenda. Such accusations weakened it further and chipped away at its legitimacy.
If nothing else, my research underscores the need for greater transparency, so that international actions and intentions can stand up to the scrutiny of the many competing local groups that will need to be brought onside if Libya is to see peace.
LinK: https://www.opendemocracy.net/north-...d-if-we-don-t?
Libyan Elections in 2018: A Potentially Ruinous Endeavour
A short paper from ICSR and their explanation:
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International stakeholders seem determined to push for Libyan elections at the end of 2018, a stance echoed by verbal commitment of national politicians. However, the outlook of elections in Libya this year remains uncertain. Seven years have passed since the fall of Muammar al-Qaddafi, who ruled Libya for 42 years. Elections could provide the positive changes this troubled country needs; at the same time, they also bear the potential to exacerbate the volatile security situation and political divisions in the country. Rightly so, Libyans demand that the transition phase needs to end, and current profiteers should have fewer advantages from the current divided system.
Link:https://icsr.info/2018/08/09/libyan-...ous-endeavour/
Ghosts of the Past: The Muslim Brotherhood in post‑Qaddafi Libya
An ICSR report and the full title is slightly different: 'Ghosts of the Past: The Muslim Brotherhood and its Stuggle for Legitimacy in post-Qaddafi Libya'.
In Summary:
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This report by ICSR Research Fellow Inga Kristina Trauthig tackles the most important global movement of political Islam, the Muslim Brotherhood, and looks at it from a local perspective. It traces and explains the history of the Libyan Muslim Brotherhood (LMB), before examining how the movement has tried to establish itself as a legitimate political actor with regards to its Islamic credentials in the Libyan political sphere after 2011.
Among other things, this report finds that:
- The LMB today is still haunted by the ghosts of its past, such as the decade-long demonisation of the Qaddafi regime, its exiled organisational structure and, on a related note, its impotence at failing to develop a strong social base.
- Overall, the LMB has exhibited a more hawkish policy approach and, while striving to grow in importance, has cooperated with some of the more radical Islamist groups.
- Finally, the LMB’s central attempt to represent itself as the true bearer of Islam (Islam’s vanguard) mattered little in a country where many of the political organisations operating in the country have paid lip service to Islam, resulting in no political force the LMB could effectively position itself against.
Link to full report:https://icsr.info/2019/01/30/ghosts-...qaddafi-libya/
Conflict erupts for control of Libya's largest oil field
A rare report on events in Libya, now over who controls the oilfields and of course the consequences. Alas the map is dated July 2018, presumaly the areas of control have not changed since then.
Link:https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...gest-oil-field
A Minister, a General, & the Militias: Libya’s Shifting Balance of Power
A rare first-hand report from Libya and details the civil war underway. Some interesting points on the militia.
Link:https://www.nybooks.com/daily/2019/0...ance-of-power/