Can Egypt's military meet people's demands?
A BBC News summary, which covers the issues the new, sorry adjusted regime:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12471990
I was struck by these passages:
Quote:
This trust, however wary, may be unrealistic. The Egyptian military was the backbone of the regime of Hosni Mubarak, it has its own economic interests and may not be the unified and disciplined institution that it seems from the outside.
Citing Max Rodenbeck, the Economist's chief Middle East writer and a long-term Cairo resident:
Quote:
One of the many worries is that the military is so isolated from society, that it has been for so long a world unto itself. This was very useful when it had to step in to take control of the situation in a crisis. But does it have the management and communications skills and network to manage this situation?
The day before, of, and after the revolution.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Dayuhan
If despotism alone were enough to generate revolution there would be a lot fewer despots in the world.
Dayuhan, there are indeed a number of factors influencing the origin, outcome, and consequences of a revolution. For a good analysis on these factors, written "in tempore non suspecto", I can recommend David B. Ottaway's "Egypt at a tipping point."
http://www.google.be/url?sa=t&source...sAuh3xr0pOPQag
State Owned Enterprises and privatization methods...
State Owned Enterprises
Quote:
A government-owned corporation, state-owned enterprise, state enterprise, government business enterprise, or parastatal is a legal entity created by a government to undertake commercial activities on behalf of an owner government. Their legal status varies from being a part of government into stock companies with a state as a regular stockholder. There is no standard definition of a government-owned corporation (GOC) or state-owned enterprise (SOE), although the two terms can be used interchangeably. The defining characteristics are that they have a distinct legal form and they are established to operate in commercial affairs. While they may also have public policy objectives, GOCs should be differentiated from other forms of government agencies or state entities established to pursue purely non-financial objectives that have no need or goal of satisfying the shareholders with return on their investment through price increase or dividends.[citation needed]
US Examples:
Egypt Generals Running Child Care Means Profit Motive, By Cam Simpson and Mariam Fam - Feb 15, 2011 3:00 PM MT, Bloomberg News
Quote:
As much as one-third of Egypt’s economy is under military control, said Joshua Stacher, an Egyptian-military expert and assistant professor at Kent State University in Ohio whose work has been published in five academic journals. Revenues from military companies are a state secret, along with the armed- forces budget, he said.
Quote:
It isn’t uncommon for governments and militaries to own or run their own defense-related industries and arms makers. In Singapore and Israel, for example, nationalized production of fighting hardware has been seen as a way to protect national security by avoiding dependence on foreign producers.
What sets apart the Egyptian military, the Arab world’s largest, is that its companies also offer an array of products or services in the domestic consumer economy -- and without civilian oversight.
Quote:
Military companies play a significant role in consumer food production, said Springborg, the Naval Postgraduate School professor.
Because the Egyptian military wanted to be self-sufficient in meeting the dietary needs of personnel, it runs “chicken farms, dairy farms, horticultural operations. And it of course has its own bakeries,” he said.
The military’s “business interests are very large,” said Bassma Kodmani, executive director of the Paris-based Arab Reform Initiative and a senior adviser at the French National Research Council. Those businesses, though, help build the nation and help keep capital within its borders.
“The army is not seen as corrupt,” she told a group of reporters in Paris last week. “It might seem strange to people in the west, but in Egypt it’s not considered shocking that the army builds highways or new housing projects.”
Treuhandanstalt
Quote:
The Treuhandanstalt (German: Trust agency) was the agency that privatized the East German enterprises, Volkseigener Betrieb (VEBs), owned as public property. Created by the Volkskammer on June 17, 1990, it oversaw the restructuring and selling of about 8,500 firms with initially over 4 million employees. At that time it was the world's largest industrial enterprise, controlling everything from steel works to the Babelsberg Studios.
Paul Brinkley's War, Pacifying Iraq with the Weapons of Capitalism, by Ullrich Fichtner, 04/22/2009, Speigel Online International
Quote:
Paul Brinkley is the head of a special American task force that aims to bring lasting peace to Iraq using the tools of capitalism. He represents a new approach to waging war, where the economic experts come in with the ground troops.
US Troubled Asset Relief Program
Quote:
The Troubled Asset Relief Program, commonly referred to as TARP, is a program of the United States government to purchase assets and equity from financial institutions to strengthen its financial sector which was signed into law by U.S. President George W. Bush on October 3, 2008. It was a component of the government's measures in 2008 to address the subprime mortgage crisis.
Originally expected to cost the U.S. taxpayers as much as $300 billion,[1] by 16 December, 2010 the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated the total cost would be $25 billion,[2] although Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner argued that the final cost would be still lower. [3] This is significantly less than the taxpayers' cost of the savings and loan crisis of the late 1980s. The cost of that crisis amounted to 3.2% of GDP during the Reagan/Bush era, while the GDP percentage of the current crisis' cost is estimated at less than 1%.[4] While it was once feared the government would be holding companies like GM, AIG and Citigroup for several years, those companies are preparing to buy back the Treasury's stake and emerge from TARP within a year.[5] Of the $245 billion invested in U.S. banks, over $169 billion has been paid back, including $13.7 billion in dividends, interest and other income, along with $4 billion in warrant proceeds as of April 2010. AIG is considered "on track" to pay back $51 billion from divestitures of two units and another $32 billion in securities.[4] In March 2010, GM repaid more than $2 billion to the U.S. and Canadian governments and on April 21 GM announced the entire loan portion of the U.S. and Canadian governments' investments had been paid back in full, with interest, for a total of $8.1 billion.[6] This was, however, subject to contention because it was noted that the automaker had only paid back its outstanding debt, while the much larger portion of the governments' investment would continue to be tied up in the company's stock.[7]
Citigroup strikes deal to repay TARP, By David Ellis, CNNMoney.com staff writer, Last Updated: December 14, 2009: 10:15 AM ET
Quote:
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Citigroup said Monday it has struck a deal with the government to return $20 billion in bailout money to taxpayers.
The New York City-based lender said it would raise the money through a combination of stock and debt, the bulk of which would come from a $17 billion common stock offering.
Egyptians choose order over further political upheaval
Oddly there has been little coverage of the 'new' Egypt and the recent referendum had barely a mention - I expect all the reporters are in Libya - so this IISS Strategic Comment is welcome.
Link:http://www.iiss.org/publications/str...ical-upheaval/
Penultimate paragraph:
Quote:
Egypt continues to suffer from aftershocks from the revolution, including episodic violence and economic disruptions. By supporting the army's plans, Egyptians have made clear their preference for order and a strong state. The army is not by nature inclined towards radical change. However, as it continues to oversee the transition, it will need to demonstrate creativity as it seeks to protect its institutional position while not standing in the way of change.
I do wonder how such a nation can do without an effective and legitimate police. There has been mention of traffic police being back on the streets.
From The Monkey Cage: Urban Social Networks, Mobilization, and State Strategies
From The Monkey Cage (www.themonkeycage.org)
http://www.themonkeycage.org/2011/03...down.html#more
BLUF:
Quote:
The argument I made is that urban social networks can be powerful underpinnings for mobilization, and that the onset of insurgency hinges in crucial ways on how states react to this urban mobilization. State strategies and policies, driven by the interests of regimes and security forces, are more important in shaping what happens to urban uprisings than the raw stock of government capacity and material power. The fate of rebellions, given surging social mobilization, rests on fundamentally political decisions about whether to unleash extreme violence on urban protesters and insurgents.
Regards
OC
Has Egypt's revolution become a military coup?
Quote:
CAIRO, Egypt — Just days after the departure of former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak on Feb. 11, the nation’s new, self-appointed military leaders pledged, within six months, a swift transition to civilian rule.
Crowds of the same protesters that demanded Mubarak’s ouster cheered as their army said it would steer the nation toward a “free, democratic system.” Seven months later, however, many Egyptians are finding that little has changed.
As the so-called Supreme Council of the Armed Forces increasingly cements, and in some cases flaunts, its firm grip on power, the revolution that inspired a region is beginning to look more like an old-fashioned military coup.
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/n...-military-coup
And if so, who is behind these shennanigans?
Quote:
CAIRO: A fresh attack overnight on a pipeline delivering gas from Egypt to Israel left one person injured, witnesses and Egyptian security sources said Tuesday.
At least three gunmen in a van opened fire on a gas installation before an explosion hit the pipeline near the town of al-Arish in the north of the Sinai peninsula, witnesses said.
It was the sixth such attack on the pipeline, which carries gas through the Sinai and on to Jordan and Israel, since Egypt's former president Hosni Mubarak was toppled in February.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...155743/1/.html
Thread for reference : http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...715#post115715