Multiple Russian airstrikes targeted rebel positions in Deir Jamal, Zyara & Menagh airbase in Aleppo, Syria.
YPG, Assad & ISIS must be happy
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Multiple Russian airstrikes targeted rebel positions in Deir Jamal, Zyara & Menagh airbase in Aleppo, Syria.
YPG, Assad & ISIS must be happy
In just 2 months of bombings, Russia killed 2 times more civilians than US bombings on Syria did in 14 months.
What the neck......still not much more on this in the way of the WHY????
What's happening in the #Bosphorus, I can count 80 ships halted at both entrances and no cargo boats or tanker transiting through it ??
Dozens of ships seems to be turning in circles on the black sea side, ships that were supposed to pass through the #Bosphorus.
Turkey is basically is the only western country that is calling Putin out with his lies and disinformation.......OR have you heard anything from Obama, Hollande and or Merkel......
Turkey's PM says they have alt sources to Russian gas, names Iran & Azerbaijan. Tells Russia to be "more logical". http://www.rosbalt.ru/main/2015/12/02/1467053.html …
Turkish Hurriyet Daily: Russia using crisis to further strengthen military presence in Syria
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/is-...&NewsCatID=429 … pic.twitter.com/v1zqgpFBJv
Now it could be a temporary closure of some sort but it is rather weird to me. 80 ships anchored and about 20 turning in circles. #Bosphorus
Seems like as soon as they pass the Navigation aid marker they are told to go anchor on the side. All shifting their direction. #Bosphorus
NOTE: evidently the Turks are showing the Russians they control the strait---since 30/11 they have built up delays and or delayed ships then suddenly allowed a single say Russian tanker to pass and hold back the rest.........then a single cargo freighter and then suddenly all is fine
Mind games are being played with the Russians......
I consider myself an 'air warfare analyst', and as such do not have a particularly high opinion of SAMs in general - at least not before they prove as 'effective beyond doubt, in combat'.
Namely, my experience from studying various high-tech air wars in the Middle East is: there are giant differences between 'routine, peace-time ops' and 'combat ops'. And also: the more famed some SAM is, the less effective it turns out in ops.
Let me just observe here: Soviet (at earlier times) and nowadays Russian SAMs have been famed beyond anything acceptable. They were often declared for true 'wonder weapons' even by various Western observers (not only by Russians). A closer study of systems in question - particularly such like SA-6 of the 1973 fame - have revealed only a mass of weak spots.
In comparison, next to nothing is known about SAMs deployed by various types of USN's warships: the little that is known about these is that they proved murderous already during the Vietnam War. Similarly, and generally, very little is known about effectiveness of MIM-23B I-HAWK SAMs in Iranian and Israeli service... Similarly, the SA-3 is often entirely ignored, although in ops it actually proved more effective than SA-6...
Anyway... the S-400 is probably comparable to the US-made PAC-2 (aka MIM-104C) in its overall capability. Even so, and whether Russian or Western, SAMs have extensive limitations. Foremost, they are inflexible: even mobile systems like S-400 are lacking manoeuvreability of combat aircraft. This means that while, sure, they can deny the use of airspace within a limited area, they are also easily 'outmanoeuvred' (usually 'outflanked').
No matter the advertising about 'over-the-horizon-capability' by their manufacturers, they suffer from ground clutter - especially when positioned low at the sea coast, and even more so if having a 'wall' of 2,000-metres high mountains right in front of their face, and then on two sides (like this is the case with that Russian S-400 site in Istamo now). In long-range ops, they are vulnerable from all sorts of negative influence by atmospheric conditions (especially if the sky is humid) etc.
Finally, their ops are much more susceptible to mistakes than those of combat aircraft: if necessary (always depending on ROEs, of course), their operators can't get up into the air and do the VID. They can easily misinterpret IFF-transmissions (see what happened to the crew of USS Vinncennes in 1988) etc.
I would say: if the operators of that Russian S-400 site now deployed at Istamo haven't got some damn good and extremely realistic training (and I doubt they did), under current circumstances the system is more likely to prove a liability than any kind of safety. In worst case, it is very likely to cause a major tragedy, big international incident, and add shame to Russian behaviour: keep in mind that Adana remains a tourist centre, even without Russians, just for example, and that up to 50 airliners are landing there during the summer season...
Bottom line: it's a grandiose (but dumb too) PR-coup to declare in the public this S-400 would now 'guarantee safety' of Russian aircraft underway over northern Syria. But, it's actually a mistake to expect that it could provide anything like at least near-decent coverage of the airspace over northern Syria. Either the VKS aircraft can protect themselves (and their crews can learn to navigate), or they cannot: SAMs are not going to help them.
Russian sealift.........Syrian Express.....
First mentioning of livestock being shipped to Syria for the Russian military..
Cambodia flag livestock carrier Rabunion20 transits Bosphorus en route from Romanian port Sulina to Tartus
Under #Russia'n airstrikes & #YPG/#SDF ground attack #FSA were not able to hold Kafrah town against #IslamicState
Russia bombed #FSA with 100+ airstrikes in N- #Aleppo the past weeks- but not a single bomb hit the #IslamicState
IslamicState thanks for #Russia'n & kurdish #YPG air & ground-support against #FSA in northern #Aleppo- IS try to take 2 villages at #Azaz
InfoGraphic+Map: Factions involved in North Aleppo's Opposition / SDF Conflict | #Syria.
HD: http://goo.gl/ny3BUC
Rebels killed the commander of #Iraq'i Shiite "Liwa al-Imam al-Hussein" brigade in southern rural #Aleppo
http://jihadintel.meforum.org/group/...mam-al-hussein …
Reports of major FSA operation N Aleppo w/ TRAF CAS vs ISIL & Assad. Putin made a move to Azaz & al-Salama trying to stop it
in co. w/ YPG
Levant Front downed ISIL recon drone north Aleppo.
http://youtu.be/94803UtmEpA
Jaish al-Fath says killed over 50 IRGC militants around al-Qarasi village south #Aleppo during past week clashes.
1 December 2015
The number of regime tanks destroyed by the FSA in Nov 2015
pic.twitter.com/5Rj8FFnVqK
Reference Russian combat loses.....
In November bodies of 14 dead #Russia(n) soldiers arrived in #Crimea (#UKRAINE) from #Syria
pic.twitter.com/xmT69cLs4c
DOES this sense to anyone at SWJ.....?
BREAKINGNEWS
#ISIS ADVANCES UNDER #RUSSIANAIRSTRIKES COVER VS. THE #FSA NORTH OF #ALEPPO.
6 km till #Azaz !!!
Unbelievable!
#Russia now in DIRECT frontline support for #ISIS, bombing the rebel front as #ISIS advances on #Azaz.
ISIS fighters trying to advance more and reach the border crossing with #Turkey, as #Russia attacking #Azaz city and Rebels positions.
As expected - Opposition forces lost Kafrah village to #ISIS due to heavy #Russia|n airstrikes, giving #ISIS the ability to gain territory.
But we must be honest: Not only #Russia doesn't hit #ISIS N of #Aleppo.
Also #Turkey, the #EU & the #US don't.
Common plan to defeat rebels?
Without #Turkey intervening, #ISIS will conquer the entire border and cut the supply line to civilians in #Aleppo within weeks.
Going to plan then: pound moderate rebels until irrelevant, left with only IS. West will then join Assad+RU. Assad happy man!
Russia'n airstrikes also on #FSA in Kafer Kalbeen
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36...90530&z=14&m=b …
statement "Azaz media" team:
https://www.facebook.com/NorthMediaI...07391922895188 …
No doubt: #Russia'n airstrikes on #FSA help #IslamicState to take over northern rural #Aleppo- thats cut off all supplies to the city
IslamicState on the verge to lose Deir Hafer city in E-#Aleppo
to #Assad-forces- but able to advance on #Azaz city in N-#Aleppo
Russia still bombing #FSA hold towns & villages in northern #Aleppo- but conduct not a single strike on #IslamicState in this area
Putin accuses Turkey of receiving IS oil, Turkey says prove it and who proves it?......Russian info warrior outlet media Russia Today the main info warfare outlet of the Russian government.
Russia's TV claim #IslamicState carry oil via regime area in the west & kurdish controlled area in east to Turkey
Russia's MoD summoned foriegn jounos to explain how Turkey is buying oil from Isil
NOTICE the MoD accusations are really "claims" not a single solid piece of evidence, photo, voice intercepts and or satellite tracking and or photos taken inside Turkey were presented......
THEN this closing statement from the Russian MoD:
At the end of today's briefing, dept defence minister Antonov anticipated "claims that everything you've seen today is a falsification."
Seems that the Russian MoD is social media open source analysis wise "gun shy"....based on their previously poor performances concerning the shot down of MH17 and the geo tagging of their Syrian bombing videos which they claimed were targeting IS but social media has proven 65 to be totally wrong and they were in fact hitting FSA.
Roland Oliphant @RolandOliphant
I suspect he may have been thinking of @bellingcat, @EliotHiggins and friends...
in Paris
Roland Oliphant @RolandOliphant
He may also have been thinking of Erdogan, who just called it "slander"
WAS basically just a dog and pony show without the dogs and ponies used to provide CYA for Putin's public remarks in Paris.....
FSA destroy regime army technical south #Aleppo. TOW hit
https://youtu.be/MEes5OhA1uo
Footage
New rebel DIY weapon in #Homs province.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yk9hww_ain4 …
Turkey's reverse sanctions on Russia and it will hurt Gazproms bottom line as Turkey is the second largest customer behind Germany...
BREAKING: Turkey may cut Russian imports of liquefied petroleum gas by 25 percent next year due to political spat
Turkey signed a LNG contract today with Qatar.........
Seems to be that #RuAF struck an important water treatment facility. http://www.unicef.org/media/media_86402.html …
pic.twitter.com/q8lfPf9jzV
From the realm of the "what the heck"......???
UK has lost its mind. Chair of foreign affair committee called for arming Assad today. My response https://twitter.com/Millermena/statu...55740983615488 …
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinio...ra/551466.html
Moscow Must Avoid Shadow War With Ankara
By Mark Galeotti
Dec. 02 2015 00:00
Quote:
Moscow is sanctioning Turkish goods and holidays, something that will have a distinct impact on an economy which earns $6.5 billion a year from Russian tourists, but is this enough to assuage President Vladimir Putin's evident fury at the shooting down of one of his bombers? And if it is not, what else can he do short of direct — and hopefully unthinkable — military action against a NATO member with an army not that much smaller that Russia's? The temptation may be, to strike from the shadows.
Turkey and Russia have, after all, a long and bloody history not just of outright war, but of border, indirect, covert and political struggles. From proxy wars in the Caucasus khanates and Ukraine in the 17th century, through to political tussles over Poland in the 18th, and cultural-religious ones in the Balkans which lasted through into the 20th, these are two countries with a long tradition of underhand conflict.
Today, Moscow's capacities to blend political, intelligence, information and even criminal assets into multi-vectored campaigns is greater than ever. For a president eager to extract a pound of flesh, this may seem a tempting option.
For a start, Turkey — ever volatile — is going through a particularly violent and turbulent time. This year has seem presumed Islamic State bomb attacks, others against Kurdish rallies, and a spate of other killings including last week's which saw a prominent Kurdish human rights lawyer killed. Against this backdrop, Russian agents and hirelings might be able to launch attacks of their own (and how many more would it take to ensure other tourists, for example, stay away, further hitting the economy?) without it obviously being a Muscovite maneuver.
Indeed, part of the value of such incidents might also be to provoke further violence between Turkish factions themselves. Stirring up trouble between Kurds, ultra-leftist terrorists like the DHKC/P, criminals, and a government also prone to sanctioned and unsanctioned violence and then sitting back to enjoy the show might suit the Kremlin well.
The presence of an organized and active Kurdish movement is also a potential asset. With the Kurds having in effect established a state for themselves in Iraq, and being one of the more effective militias in Syria (much to Ankara's chagrin), renewed pressures for their independence or autonomy within Turkey is inevitable. In this case, the Russians — who have supported the Kurds in the past when it was expedient — could be useful friends to them. This could just mean political support in international fora, but could also involve funding or even arming the more radical groups.
Given that Turkish President Recep Erdogan is engaged in an ambitious effort to re-establish Turkey as a regional power, one could also see Russia responding by more aggressively countering this. From Azerbaijan to Turkish-controlled Northern Cyprus (whose president is increasingly at odds with Ankara), through to Israel (an important trading partner, despite the obvious personal antagonism between Erdogan and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu), there is a wealth of areas in which to introduce problems, from a judicious smear or leak here, to an outright assassination or staged provocation there.
And yet Putin should think thrice before striking once. The chances of his strategy becoming clear in the end are great and this would anger Ankara and worry the West. Besides, Turkey is no soft target, Erdogan doubly so. The irony is that Turkey is in many ways similar to Russia, from its revisionist plans and the aggressiveness of its intelligence agencies, to the character of its ambitious autocrat-presidents. It may lack the excitement of a war in the shadows, but ultimately Putin would be best served sticking to the humdrum world of the boycott and the diplomatic rebuke.
Reports Levant Front retaken Jazer village and trying to advance to Kafrah captured today by #ISIL north #Aleppo.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36...48809&z=15&m=b …
ISIS is trying to storm #Syria|n town of #Marea. Heavy clashes with #FSA in the northern part.
#Aleppo
pic.twitter.com/eyVQB03lod
With Russian airstrikes Daesh take chance to gain more territories in Northern Aleppo
http://syria.liveuamap.com
pic.twitter.com/v7mSKIjrqQ
MORE Russian info warfare.........
TASS
@tassagency_en NATO-Russia Council resumption can help overcome differences — lawmaker
http://tass.ru/en/politics/841017 …
Putin has burnt so many bridges lately...........
Russian AF air strikes again on Turkish aid convoy trucks.....
Photo #SCD extinguishing the fire on trucks due #Russia airstrikes, dozens martyrs & wounded
#Aleppo #Syria
Dec 2
pic.twitter.com/0v5iC6ObnY
Russian air strike used thermobaric weapons......
Russia warplanes bombed AID trucks on the road between #Ihris & #Kafr_Nasih w/vacuum missiles, causalities reported..
Urgent
#Russia warplanes carried out airstrikes targeting #Ihras neighborhood
#Aleppo #Syria Dec 2
pic.twitter.com/EiVEc3eqZB
Several RuAF strikes on Anadan village 30k m from #ISIL north Aleppo
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36...46757&z=13&m=b …
https://youtu.be/qU_VjqKjdRA pic.twitter.com/Omc7FccE8h
Urgent
A massacre in #Harayitan village, after #Russia airstrikes, dozens martyrs, mostly children and several wounded
#aleppo #Syria Dec 2
News
#Putin's #Su34 bombed rebels at the #ISIS front E of #Azaz for the whole day.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU_VjqKjdRA …
pic.twitter.com/dovrqWmP5Z