The Battle for Pakistan By Bruce Riedel
He opens with:
Quote:
The struggle for control of Pakistan - soon to be the fifth most populous country in the world with the fifth largest nuclear arsenal - intensifies every day. The outcome is far from certain. The key player, Pakistan's army, seems dangerously ambivalent about which side should prevail: the jihadist Frankenstein it created or the democratically elected civilian government it despises.
Given his position as an adviser to the US government this is quite stark IMHO:
Quote:
The jihadist penetrations of the army raise persistent questions about the security of Pakistan's nukes. According to a WikiLeaked State Department cable, from September 2009, France's national security adviser Jean-David Levitte told the American Embassy in Paris that France believes it is not secure. Levitte is one of the most astute diplomats in the world today, and he is almost certainly right.
Link:http://www.realclearworld.com/articl...day-newsletter
Why this French diplomat would offer such a judgement eludes me. Yes, the French have an interest in Pakistan, IMHO behind two others. The French have some links to the Pakistani military, albeit mainly to the navy (submarines) and the air force (various Mirage types).
Pakistan and a new Taliban-run Afghanistan?
Carl,
Yes, I am sure the French are concerned at the loss of a Pakistani nuclear weapon or just the vital component parts. My surprise was the weight given to the French diplomat's views.
As for your theme:
Quote:
..If Taliban & Co. take Afghanistan, or even a substantial portion of it, wouldn't this be as bad for Pakistan as for anybody, if not worse?..
I would expect that the Pakistani Army / ISI have looked at that possibility and considered their options. There would be some irony if the Taliban re-asserted control over Southern Afghanistan, then offered sanctuary to the PTT and the Pakistani Army had to guard the Durand Line on a different scale.
From my "armchair" I do not see the PTT needs that much of a sanctuary, there are still large swathes of NWFP / FATA beyond effective state control, more importantly the PTT and allies have facilities in urban areas. Not to overlook parts of South Punjab, which are reported to host fundamentalist extremists.
Do the PTT want to challenge the Pakistani state in the lowlands or just evict them from the FATA? I don't know.
The other extremists pose the biggest danger to the Pakistani state, for example if the LeT leadership cannot maintain discipline. Only rarely are these factions dealt with bluntly by the Pakistani state. Quite a contrast to the PTT who have been, notably in the Swat Valley - not part of the FATA.
Can anyone control Pakistan's ISI spies?
Quote:
Pakistan's dreaded spy agency, the ISI, is back in the spotlight, accused of murdering journalist Saleem Shahzad. The agency's engagement with the media has become progressively more virulent as the "war on terror" has progressed. BBC Urdu editor Aamer Ahmed Khan asks whether anyone can bring the ISI under control.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13638478
US strike 'kills' key Pakistan militant Ilyas Kashmiri
The BBC are reporting his confirmed death:
Quote:
..a major psychological blow to al-Qaeda and the Taliban, and will also make it more difficult for wanted militant leaders to find safe places to go......He is widely believed to have masterminded an audacious attack on the Mehran naval airbase in Karachi last month...many would be led to believe the Pakistani intelligence operatives had a role in leading the Americans to Kashmiri..
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13653324
In tonight's BBC News the reporter stated Pakistan is claiming it's information led to the US drone strike.
His BBC obituary:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13655883
This indicates a link to the Mumbai attack following the Chicago trial testimony.
Seems that several national interests were served by this attack.
Pakistan spins PRC and is rejected!
A FP piece that puts the Sino-Pakistani relationship in a different context, notably over the port of Gwadar:
Quote:
State visits between friendly countries seldom produce surprises or unscripted moments, but the recent trip to China by top Pakistani officials managed to do just that.
Upon returning to Islamabad, the defense minister, Ahmed Mukhtar, made two eyebrow-raising announcements: first, that Beijing had agreed to take over operation of Gwadar port in Baluchistan, and, second, that he had invited the Chinese to build a naval base there. China's leaders, seemingly caught unaware by these statements, promptly denied them.
Which ends with:
Quote:
Pakistan remains a very important ally, but China has too much at stake to be dragged unwittingly into Islamabad's soap opera with Washington.
Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...pearl?page=0,0
"Militants Tipped Off Before Raids"
That is how the Denver Post headlined this story picked up from the Washington Post this morning.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...y.html?hpid=z1
The Washington Post headlined the same story "New Challenge for U.S.-Pakistan Ties."
The exact same story, about how the US gave Pakistan exact info and location of 2 bomb making factories in North and South Waziristan that turned out to have been recently evacuated when the Pak Army showed up, and yet radically different headlines. I guess the headline editor at the Washington Post is in with the political/military elite. The reporters not so much. The Denver Post editors, not at all.
The Denver Post headline accurately reflects the content of the story, catches your eye and invites you to read it. The Washington Post headline has nothing to do with the content of the story and is of such a nature as to cause people to skip it as just another in the long line of U.S.-Pakistan relationship stories. Fascinating.
The other thing is most of the story had to come from US officials who want to highlight the perfidy of the Pak Army-ISI. But the WaPo editors want to hide it. There must be a big fight going on inside the beltway right now about this.
With friends like these....
Breaking News Alert
The New York Times
Tuesday, June 14, 2011 -- 10:32 PM EDT
-----
Quote:
Pakistan Arrests C.I.A. Informants Who Aided Bin Laden Raid
Pakistan’s top military spy agency has arrested some of the Pakistani informants who fed information to the Central Intelligence Agency in the months leading up to the raid that led to the death of Osama bin Laden, according to American officials.
Pakistan’s detention of five C.I.A. informants, including a Pakistani Army major who officials said copied the license plates of cars visiting Bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, in the weeks before the raid, is the latest evidence of the fractured relationship between the United States and Pakistan. It comes at a time when the Obama administration is seeking Pakistan’s support in brokering an endgame in the war in neighboring Afghanistan.
The fate of the C.I.A. informants arrested in Pakistan is unclear, but American officials said that the C.I.A. director, Leon E. Panetta, raised the issue when he travelled to Islamabad last week to meet with Pakistani military and intelligence officers.
Read More:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/15/wo...cy.html?emc=na
With friends like these....
Bill,
Thanks for posting that. It just shows that patience will be rewarded.
On the 4th May 2011 I noted a small detail in The Guardian's report on the OBL raid:
Quote:
Note the nearest neighbour's house was occupied by a Pakistani Army major.
The fuller quote from the article:
Quote:
But there was no sign of life from a nearby property, about 50 metres from Bin Laden's back wall, with a high perimeter wall and two watchtowers. Neighbours said it had been built three years ago by a man whose family has long owned property in the area. The nameplate read: Major Amir Aziz. Locals said he was a serving Pakistan army officer. Despite repeated rings on the doorbell, he refused to answer.
The latest article has:
Quote:
..including a Pakistani Army major who officials said copied the license plates of cars visiting Bin Laden’s compound..
If all true then it makes the point human sources have a vital role even when hi-tech techniques are available.
With friends like these....(amendment from Pakistan)
Not unexpectedly an official denial a Pakistani Army major was detained:
Quote:
The Pakistani army denied Wednesday that one of its majors was among a group of Pakistanis who Western officials say were arrested for feeding the CIA information before the American raid that killed Osama bin Laden.
Link:http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/cia_pakis...lzdGFuZGVuaQ--