Arab Spring becoming Arab Summer?
http://news.yahoo.com/protesters-rej...213902113.html
Quote:
Egypt's military ruler promised Tuesday to speed up a presidential election to the first half of 2012 and said the armed forces were prepared to hold a referendum on immediately shifting power to civilians — concessions swiftly rejected by tens of thousands of protesters in Tahrir Square, who chanted, "Leave! Leave!"
The latest standoff plunged the country deeper into crisis less than a week before parliamentary elections, the first since the ouster nine months ago of longtime authoritarian leader Hosni Mubarak.
This was of course inevitable, as various factions jockey for power in the post-Mubarak era. I certainly hope nobody is contemplating intervention, but it will be worth watching how the situation plays out. Transitions out of dictatorship are complicated and very challenging, and we've a fair number to observe these days.
Where is the pressure on the SCAF is coming from?
One of the best comments I've seen on the developing situation in Egypt as we return here in the UK to 'live' media coverage of Tahrir Square and sometimes tiny film clips from others cities than Cairo - oh yes from Australian Lowy Institute too:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/...or-reflux.aspx
Nor has this aspect, with my emphasis been covered:
Quote:
Last Friday the Brotherhood and other Islamist groups took to the streets, ostensibly to protest the SCAF's moves to impose a set of supra-constitutional principles that would limit civilian control of the military and enshrine the latter's ability to intervene in politics. But they quickly lost control of the protest to the second and more vehement source of opposition to the SCAF: namely, the amorphous revolutionary youth who were at the forefront of the 25 January uprising and whose patience with the SCAF's transitional rule has been running out quickly ever since.
I noted in the coverage the return of large numbers of riot police and sometimes the front-line part played by the military police - with the same old tactics.
Egypt's army is hijacking the revolution
A London-based RUSI analyst adds:
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This week, Egypt exploded for one simple reason: its army crossed the line. The Egyptian military, buoyed by its apparent role as saviour of the revolution, judged that it could manipulate the country’s democratic transition to keep its privileges intact. It was wrong...
How about this:
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In short, SCAF, led by the increasingly mistrusted Field Marshal Tantawi, wants to create a political model resembling the Turkey of the 1980s or Pakistan of today – an eviscerated democracy with no control over its national security policy, weighed down by a bloated and self-serving military-industrial apparatus.
On the US stance:
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Meanwhile, the United States has responded with a staggeringly facile policy. It calls or "restraint on all sides", as if blame for the crisis can be shared around equally.
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...evolution.html
Six-and-a-half minutes of jerky video
From The Guardian and with a strong dose of drama in the language used and assessment of it's value:
Quote:
But although future historians looking back at this period will have ample primary source material available – from a mountain of ballot papers to the hundreds of hours of footage covering rallies in Tahrir Square – their most important asset may prove to be six-and-a-half minutes of jerky video, shot by Bahgat from the heart of the violence.
The film, which consists of a series of clips made over several days at the height of the unrest, directly contradicts many of the claims made by the ministry of interior regarding the type of weaponry deployed by its troops and its insistence that only "reasonable force" has been used to confront protesters.
Better than anything produced by more conventional media outlets, the footage captures the dramatic reality of Cairo's recent clashes. It is also one of the most intense recordings of guerrilla warfare ever produced and has rapidly become a viral sensation, clocking up over 100,000 hits on YouTube.
Link to article:http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011...square-clashes
The YouTube link:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9JmBTotCWQ
There is an assessment of the revolution that will linger IMHO with the 'guardians':
Quote:
Meanwhile, a police gunman who was caught on camera apparently targeting a protester's eye – prompting cheerful congratulations from his colleagues – has turned himself in after revolutionaries pasted "Wanted" pictures of him across the capital.
The writer above quoted has provided a real gem...
Quote:
It is also one of the most intense recordings of guerrilla warfare ever produced and has rapidly become a viral sensation, clocking up over 100,000 hits on YouTube.
He and I have wildly different ideas of what might constitute "intense."
Obviously poorly trained and shotgun armed police could never mount much more than reasonable force or a semblance thereof. That lad really needs to get out more... :wry:
Trying to make sense of the elections
An IISS Strategic Comment, that includes:
Quote:
The Muslim Brotherhood’s political arm, the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), won over 36% of the vote.......
The real surprise, however, came from the hardline Salafist Nour party, which won 24% of the vote. Long absent from formal politics but focused on preaching their puritanical interpretation of Islam, the Salafis at first seemed fragmented. But this weakness was overcome by considerable resources, good organisation and relentless identity-based campaigning. Pious but so far politically inactive Egyptians came out in support of the Salafis. Many conservative Egyptians traditionally attracted to the Brotherhood probably shifted their votes to the Salafis despite significant political and doctrinal differences between the two groups...
The main liberal coalition, known as the Egyptian Bloc, came third with only 13% in the first round. Together with smaller groups, secular parties gained a meagre fifth of the vote.
Link:http://www.iiss.org/publications/str...-to-democracy/
Army misrule is turning Egypt into Pakistan
As SWC readers will know we have watched and commented upon the twists and turns of Pakistani decision-making for a long time; not once has Pakistan been likened to Egypt.
Shashank Joshi, from RUSI, has done this op-ed piece, which opens with:
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The revolution has been cancelled. Everyone go home. It was all a big misunderstanding.
That is the message of Egypt’s military junta who, having hijacked their country’s political future, are turning it into a new Pakistan: a self-destructive and stagnating military dictatorship, limping along in sporadic democratic spurts. It is a squalid and tragic outcome for a country that should have been leading a political renaissance of the Arab world.
He ends with:
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There is a warning here for outsiders, too. The United States bears some responsibility for feeding the military monster in Pakistan, over the years in which it preferred to funnel cash and weapons to the army in return for short-term co-operation.
Today, Washington should make a different choice in Egypt. It should tell the generals that the billions of dollars of American aid they receive every year, and the cutting-edge tanks and jets, will be conditional on a swift, meaningful and irreversible handover to elected civilians. That won’t fix everything, but it might buy time for a political process to take hold. The junta will respond by threatening to tear up the peace treaty with Israel, but this bluff has grown old. It should be ignored.
Ultimately, it is for Egyptians to decide whether they take to the streets once more, and risk further and perhaps futile bloodshed, or accommodate to military tutelage
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-Pakistan.html
The hopes of an 'Arab Spring' leading to a better future for the people living there have dulled, in other places are being extinguished and largely for reasons of state have the West has looked away.
For a more detailed examination of the scene in Egypt try:http://www.opendemocracy.net/andrea-...ion-to-nowhere
I noted the point that the generals are the "old guard", anxious to retain their power and wealth. So much so they could actually unite the opposition around democracy, human rights and ejecting the generals - or more fitting "back to barracks".
Sounds like a poor investment to me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Dayuhan
[T]hey'll take the line that we need them to contain Islamic extremism.
Excellent job they’ve done on that score thus far. :rolleyes: