A little more on the Ukraine
from the Independent.
Quote:
By Askold Krushelnycky in Sevastopol, Ukraine
Thursday, 28 August 2008
Ukraine's Crimean peninsula, home to the Russian Black Sea Fleet, could be the next flashpoint in the new Cold War. And any violent disturbance in Crimea could provide the political seismic shock to split Ukraine itself along its existing fault lines of ethnicity, language and religion.
The Crimean peninsula is the only part of Ukraine where ethnic Russians are in a majority. Many of them are deeply resentful about being part of Ukraine and openly call for annexation by Russia. Moscow has fostered pro-annexation groups for years. ....
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...ia-910769.html
Reduced to simplest terms,
a treaty is a contract. As such, it is afflicted with all of the clarities and vagaries of contract law and contract practicalities - including (1) changes in the totality of circumstances (beyond the control of one or more parties to the contract); and (2) realization by one or more of the parties to the effect that - "why on earth did I agree to this ?"
One could also cite basic contract principles such as "meeting of the minds" (which do not always meet initially, and later can diverge even if they did initially meet); and "quid pro quo" (mutual consideration), which may or may not be "paid" - and which in hindsight may seem inadequate to one or more of the parties.
For a small nation dealing with a more powerful neighbor, a treaty (contract) is a slim reed on which to hang ten - since it is too easy to get hung. True, the small nation may seek a bigger brother - and that may be successful, if the big brother is in a position to provide realistic assistance or deterrence.
If it is able, the small nation (even if allied) would seem best advised to develop a self-contained defense capability - not to defeat the powerful neughbor, but to make an invasion non-cost-effective for that bear-like creature - and not to engage in bear-baiting.
Sometimes, a bit silly ...
other times, not so silly:
Quote:
Putin:19 US poultry producers will be barred from exporting to Russia, says move not political
Staff
AP News
Aug 28, 2008 15:10 EST
Vladimir Putin says 19 U.S. poultry producers will be barred from exporting their products to Russia. ...
http://wiredispatch.com/news/?id=319204
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Russia and China have been working out oil-gas agreements for several years, not from mutual affection but from mutual self-interest. See generally, archives at
http://www.assaluyeh.com/page.php?archive-en
and, as examples,
Quote:
Pragmatism, not love, draws Russia and China closer
Author : M.H.Hadavi-News From turkishdailynews.com.tr :: Date:: 2006-03-27
http://www.assaluyeh.com/news.php?sh...ive&id=3796-en
Quote:
Russia Plays China Energy Card
Author : M.H.Hadavi-News From countercurrents.org :: Date:: 2006-03-26
Russia has made a new move to assert itself as a global energy broker and make other countries play by its rules. On a visit to China this week, President Vladimir Putin pledged to build two natural gas pipelines to China, as well as jointly develop Russian offshore gas fields. The two proposed gas pipelines would deliver 60 billion to 80 billion cubic metres of Russian gas to China a year, Mr. Putin said in Beijing. He also confirmed Russia's promise to build a diversion to China from a proposed oil pipeline from eastern Siberia to the Pacific coast. ....
http://www.assaluyeh.com/news.php?sh...ive&id=3780-en
Of more current interest, I found this a bit interesting:
Quote:
Iran Becomes China"s 2nd Biggest Crude Supplier
Author : nazia kabri(re:shana) :: Date:: 2008-08-29
TEHRAN (PIN) – Iran became China"s second biggest crude oil supplier in July, exporting 2.4 million tons, the latest data from the Chinese General Administration of Customs showed. According to Kuwaiti news agency reported, Saudi Arabia was China"s top oil supplier in July, with shipments from the kingdom reached 2.6 million tons, followed by Iran with 2.4 million tons. Angola ranked third with 1.8 million tons. ...
http://www.assaluyeh.com/news.php?sh...ive&id=7565-en
As K's last reference illustrates, national self-interests drive policies - but lack of co-operation in one area does not equate to lack of co-operation in other areas.
An odd Finnish news item, ....
to probably put on an index card (as a maybe) - and to consider the opinions stated with caution.
Quote:
A Step At A Time
Reflections on the world post-9/11, by a British writer, translator and musician who engaged for many years in the debates of the Cold War, and who tends to see the world's present troubles as a continuation of the old common struggle with tyranny and oppression. The blog can also be accessed here
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Finnish Islamists back Russia
The possibility that Islamist movements in Europe and probably also further afield to some extent work in harmony with the Putin/Medvdev schemes in the field of military and foreign policy is evidenced by an interesting statement by the Finnish Islamic Party (Suomenislamilainenpuolue), which aims to represent the interests of Finland's small Muslim minority. The statement condemns the "aggressive acts of the Georgian leadership" and gives the party's full support to Russia. It also makes a savage attack on the president and government of Estonia, and demands that President Saakashvili be put on trial for war crimes. Although Finland's Muslims are mostly Tatars, and have little time for fundamentalist ideology, the document is a curious and revealing indicator of the sort of sources where the Kremlin may really be deriving support in today's world. The fact that the Hamas organization was the first to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia may not be a coincidence.
That some voices in Finland may be helping to foment a movement which they call a "Russian Intifada" among Estonia's Russian-speaking minority is shown by this blog, which is dedicated to the subject.
There has long been a noted connection between the Kremlin and Islamist groupings, and it is no secret that, as Alexander Litvinenko pointed out before he was brutally murdered in London, Al-Qaeda’s Ayman al-Zawahiri trained at a Federal Security Service (the former Russian KGB) base in Dagestan in 1998.
http://halldor2.blogspot.com/2008/08...ck-russia.html
Besides not liking Estonia, the SIP statement also hits NATO (see below).
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The Suomen Islamilainen Puolue webpage (in Finn, but with some English pages) is at
http://suomenislamilainenpuolue.fi/tiedotteet.html
Besides text summarized above, SIP statement (Helsingissä 14.8.2008) also hit on NATO:
Quote:
Suomen Islamilainen Puolue vaatii Suomen Tasavaltaa pidättäytymään Naton jäsenyydestä ja yhteistyöstä Naton eri operaatioista luoden näin ollen jännitteistä vapaan alueen ehdottoman puolueettomuuspolitiikan mukaisesti, sekä hyvien suhteiden ylläpitäminen Venäjän kanssa.
Boils down to a demand by SIP on the Finnish government to pull back from NATO membership consideration and from participation in NATO operations - and to return to accommodation policies and fellowship with Russia (in effect, "Finlandization" - I hate that term). Good luck on that one to SIP (which probably could meet in the average sauna room).
Lest I get hit by Crabtree's Bludgeon, not everything has to be explained by conspiracy - conscious parallelism (mutual self interests) are often a better explanation.
PS - Ron. Thank you for the kind words.