Harder to assess the results of Egyptian security
Ganulv,
That was a good catch:
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Excellent job they’ve done on that score thus far.
Lawrence Wright author of 'The Looming Tower' is always worth reading.
I fully accept that the Egyptian internal security methods have been brutal, so acting as a catalyst for the conversion from Islamist to Jihadist. This must be balanced by the complicated discussion and eventual negotiation between the state - via the internal security agencies - and the GIA, which led to them renouncing the Jihad.
It was quite bizarre to listen to a former GIA activist explain he'd been released on strict conditions before 'The Arab Spring', one condition being not to play an active role in politics. So when the protests began he could not be involved and had to wait till a new agreement was reached (a researcher plans a book on this intriguing aspect).
Secondly, Ayman al-Zawahiri when he left Egypt was only able to take maybe two dozen supporters from the tens of thousands of militants. The rest stayed at home, many of them in the full knowledge that Egyptian internal security would be watching one day.
As an aside now - the impact of imprisonment, whether following a trial, is an important issue that often is neglected for years and then officialdom has to catch up - an issue IIRC we have touched upon elsewhere.
Quillam Insight: The Nature of Power in Eygpt
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Egypt’s President Mohamed Morsi moves to grant himself broad powers over the judiciary, sparking mass rallies across Egypt....Egypt’s Islamist president, Mohamed Morsi, propelled to power by the Muslim Brotherhood in June has survived 150 days as the most powerful man in Egypt and now seems to be breaking his promise to be a president for all Egyptians.....In fact, with this opportunistic move to claim vast executive powers he has pitted himself against the people of his country and is, more accurately, the Guardian of the Evolution.
Link:http://www.quilliamfoundation.org/pr...ower-in-egypt/
Morsi plays a zero-sum game
A good article by a London-based Syrian journalist and this passage is all you need to know, if economical with your time:
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Amidst these claims and counter-claims, in Egypt what appears to matter is not so much changing the rules of power than the affiliations of those who have it—and who therefore enjoys its spoils. It is a zero-sum game where enemies must be crushed and power sought and accumulated for its own sake.
Link:http://syriaintransition.com/2012/11...g-renaissance/
From my very limited perspective it is interesting that the MB in Tunisia is acting in a different manner; their leaders spent decades abroad, notably in the UK and those in Egypt were at home, under the dictatorship and often in jail. Becoming a democrat in power appears to be harder in Egypt.
Yes I acknowledge there is an argument that the MB is not a true believer in democracy.
Only the security sector is a winner
Omar Ashour weighs in with a commentary:
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The new Constitutional Declaration, the Revolution Protection Law, and the new presidential decrees have several aims:
To remove the public prosecutor, a Mubarak-era holdover who failed to convict dozens of that regime’s officials who had been charged with corruption and/or abuse of power;
To protect the remaining elected and indirectly elected institutions (all of which have an Islamist majority) from dissolution by Constitutional Court judges (mostly Mubarak-era holdovers);
To bring about retrials of Mubarak’s security generals;
To compensate and provide pensions for the victims of repression during and after the revolution.
While most Egyptians may support Morsi’s aims, a dramatic expansion of presidential power in order to attain them was, for many, a step too far.
He concludes:
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he security sector may, it seems, emerge from this crisis as the only winner. It will enforce the rule of law, but only for a price. That price will be reflected in the constitution, as well as in the unwritten rules of Egypt’s new politics. This constitutes a much more serious and lasting threat to Egypt’s democratization than do Morsi’s temporary decrees.
Link:http://www.project-syndicate.org/com...rYkGVARAKXr.99
Sons of Beaches: How Alexandria's Ideological Battles Shape Egypt
The last two paragraphs from an article on Alexandria, Egypt's second city, which is well worth reading for its depth and insight:
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One of several concerns for me over the past two years has been the appropriation of religion and thrusting it onto a dangerous identity based politics trajectory in the city of Alexandria. I cannot help but make a personal contrast. As a child, my uncle, a Muslim Imam at a local mosque, would often take me with him on routine runs, in the Alexandrian suburb of Camb Shezar (Camp Caesar), to assist an old widowed Christian lady, and in contrast with the conventional discourse adopted by “TV celebrity sheikhs,” I had never heard him use the word infidel, demonize others, or even raise his voice. To me, what he humbly did and does until this day is a revolutionary act in the face of an encroaching reactionary Islamist conservatism that continues to inflame the toxic mixture of religion and politics. Not only is this trend severely harming the social fabric of the coastal city, but also it is sending disturbing signals throughout the country.
It is often said the one who controls Tahrir, controls Cairo, and controls Egypt. Yet it can also be said the one who wins the ongoing “Battle of Alexandria” is handed the baton, like a Maestro, to wave and direct the tempo, rhythm, nuances, and dynamics of Egypt’s political orchestra that plays to an 83-million strong theatre—all yearning for a happier ending.
Link:http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index...logical-battle
Egypt: a country going downhill?