I am not an operator (I am an Engineer). My interests have to do with how to make military gains stick politically. ISIS is doing that in spades, at least at the moment. Force ratio numbers vary, and the FM 3-24 did not have a number I saw. Using the most conservative numbers of 3 per 1000 (which really only covers police presence), you would need about 1200 to cover the city of Mosul (assuming a 600K population). ISIS seems to be doing it with less. So I am assuming they are getting local help and that they are not receiving much trouble from the population. From my perspective, this means that they have a relative advantage in regards to legitimacy* – ISIS and its local elements are seen as MORE legitimate than the Maliki government, even if they are not potentially the MOST legitimate form of government. That fight will probably come later.
As for the term “baathist”, it is important not because they represent a specific group. You are correct that most people in the military or civil service would have had to have been a Baathist. However, Baathists are generally considered secular, ISIS is a group which claims a fundamentalist religious ideology. They two should not mix (and may not in the long run). That is why I find the term important.
Now compare to the Kurds:
If ISIS could take territory in Iraqi Kurdistan they would have a fight on their hands.Quote:
The peshmerga are no newcomers to fighting Sunni militants. Prior to the US-led 2003 invasion of Iraq, Kurdish fighters helped American Special Forces evict the fanatical Ansar al-Islam group from a stronghold near the Iranian border. And in 2004, the peshmerga fought alongside US troops when Iraqi police and National Guard units in Mosul failed to contain a Sunni insurgency.
Are they likely to try a repeat of 2004 and assist Iraqi security forces to take back Mosul? “We are fighting a defensive war; not an offensive one,” says a peshmerga commander, who declined to be named for this article. And ordinary fighters don’t seem overwhelmed at the idea of going on the offensive outside Iraqi Kurdistan.
They see the ISIS uprising as part of a general Sunni revolt. Sunni tribes to the south of Kirkuk rebuffed a peshmerga offer of anti-ISIS assistance and were warned to confine themselves to the northern half of Kirkuk province, says Askari.
But he holds out the possibility of a Kurdish offensive outside their territory. “If anyone comes and helps us to confront al Qaeda and ISIS we are ready, and that includes Iran, America, Israel, anyone.”
*Legitimacy defined as a recognition within the population of a group’s right to rule.