ISIS and the Use and Abuse of Early Islamic History
A month ago Professor Hugh Kennedy (SOAS, London) and an acknowledged SME on Islamic history gave a lecture @ Birmingham University - it was excellent. From the organisers summary:
Quote:
Hugh’s lecture interrogated the rise of ISIS, breaking down the often-quoted notion that Western intervention in the Middle East was the sole cause of the rise and popularity of IS. Instead, he linked this as one contributing factor with the failure of Middle Eastern nationalism and socialism. IS seeks to break both of these down; national borders won’t matter in the Caliphate, and neither will the will of the people – only the will of Allah.
Link:https://cesmabirmingham.wordpress.co...lamic-history/
Now there is a YouTube video (51 mins):https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZoYAPFPYqgw
ISIS: a rhetorical pillar for the “theology” of jihadism.
An excellent article on the arguments used by ISIS to justify their jihad against:
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...the primary target of Isil and similar groups is not the West. It is other Muslims. Above all, Shia Muslims.
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...fantasist.html
The full title and sub-title are:
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Anyone who thinks Westerners are flocking to Isil because of the Iraq war is a fantasist; Isil and its jihadist ideology uniquely exploit underlying conflicts and offer the conspiracy theory solution: none of this is your fault.
On radicalization:
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Radicalisation is complex phenomenon. There are as many reasons for radicalisation as there are radicalised young Muslims. Each one of them has their own story with a complex mix of reasons, more or less rational, for why they have come to have the radical world view. Nonetheless, we can also observe some strong patterns amongst those radicalised emerging from the increasing body of interdisciplinary research on radicalisation. For example, most come from unsafe, unstable social environments and have histories of petty crime, as well as drink and drugs problems. It is also notable that this tendency is especially acute amongst white Western converts. They may feel that their lives lack direction, but also feel disempowered and disenfranchised. They feel that they are not in control of their own destinies.
What an organisation like Isil offers them is instant reception. And moreover, a purpose. A direction in life.
Author's slim, UK bio:http://www.rai.ox.ac.uk/fellows/ibrahim
ISIS: two essential reads
First a "one stop" explanation from the BBC 'Islamic State group: The full story' and then a Salon article, which includes a Q&A with Will McCants; with a sub-title:
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Simple-minded analysis of religion, history and our challenge in the Middle East leads to the wrong policy choices
The BBC:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35695648
Salon:http://www.salon.com/2016/03/19/the_islamic_state_would_not_be_with_us_today_if_th e_united_states
_hadnt_invaded_iraq_islam_religion_and_the_intervi ew_donald_trump_and
_ted_cruz_must_read_now/
Thread created for maximum visibility; there is a main thread already on watching ISIS.
Malcolm Nance on defeating ISIS
Two options to learn Malcolm Nance's viewpoint, a short written article and a 48 minute podcast. He is an expert and author of akey book on Iraq; see an old, closed 2015 thread:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=22337
A slim bio:
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...former Arabic speaking naval intelligence counter-terrorism and intelligence officer Malcolm Nance. After spending 35 years participating in field and combat intelligence activity including both covert and clandestine anti & counter-terrorism support to national intelligence agencies...
The article which was written after Brussels:http://www.politico.eu/article/five-...evastate-isil/
Podcast via the Intl Spy Museum:http://s3.amazonaws.com/spy-museum/f...3_18_nance.mp3
Why ISIS wants a 'clash of civilizations'
An article via CBC from a Belgian SME on terrorism and ISIS. A key passage:
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"What they really want … is the clash of civilizations," he says. Revenge for what ISIS claims the West has done to Iraq and Syria. And the more ground ISIS loses there, the more the group lusts for bloodshed in Europe.
Then a "lesson learnt":
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He points to the Brussels suicide bombers Ibrahim and Khalid El Bakraoui as prime examples. "They weren't known as radicals. They were known as hardened criminals. The police were using two lists. The list of people you should be looking for because they are known for radical Islam, and the other list, people known for violent crimes. But they didn't cross-reference them. Nobody actually had any idea that they had to look on the other list."
He says the allure of criminals for ISIS is significant. They have useful connections to weapons, money laundering, fake IDs, safe houses. And, crucially, they aren't as hard to convince to engage in violence.
Link:http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/brussel...dism-1.3529884
Nada Bakos: How Zarqawi Went From “Thug” To ISIS Founder
Nada Bakos, an ex-CIA analyst and highly regarded by a some here, was interviewed in May 2016, which I missed and caught today via Twitter; yes after Mr Trump's claim ISIS was created by "not the usual suspects":http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/nada-bakos-how-zarqawi-went-from-thug-to-isis-founder/?
Fascinating.
A New American Leader Rises in ISIS
A New American Leader Rises in ISIS
Entry Excerpt:
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Read the full post and make any comments at the SWJ Blog.
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.
Meet ISIS leader Zulfi Hoxha...
..the son of an Albanian-American pizza-shop owner from New Jersey.
https://www.theatlantic.com/internat...-hoxha/550508/
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First there’s the defunct Twitter profile, which at one point engaged in a conversation with a State Department counter-propaganda account about the Islamic State. Then there’s the fact that he used the social-networking site Paltalk, a communications platform reportedly popular among Western jihadis. But none of it compares to the ISIS propaganda video that, according to multiple law-enforcement officials, shows Hoxha beheading captured Kurdish soldiers. If they are right about his identity, Hoxha is the first American Islamic State member known to be beheading individuals in such a video.
Albanian ... Pizza shop... New Jersey. Sounds familiar.
Anyone remember the 'Fort Dix Six'? See
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/09/us/09plot.html
or
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Fort_Dix_attack_plot
2007 vintage thread (now locked) on these guys.
http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...light=fort+dix
Advice for the Leaders and Soldiers of the Islamic State
I am aware that ISIS publishes on-line and the pointer for this came from Professor Paul Rogers (who I cite often). His review opens with:
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The ISIS media office recently circulated the PDF of an e-book written at least eight years ago by one of the movement's leading paramilitary specialists (Abū Hamzah al-Muhājir, aka Abu Ayyub al-Masri). Advice for the Leaders and Soldiers of the Islamic State is a guide on how to wage an insurgency. The decision to circulate it openly now, when ISIS has lost control of almost all its geographical caliphate yet survives and even thrives elsewhere, is an intriguing development. It may well prove useful not just to its intended readership, but to others wanting to know how ISIS intends to pursue its strategic aims.
(Later) published in eleven languages: Bosnian, English, French, German, Indonesian, Kurdish, Pashto, Russian, Turkish, Uyghur and Urdu. This alone points to some of the regions that the ISIS leadership sees as having growth potential.
He concludes:
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As ISIS moves towards becoming a decentred, transnational insurgency, spreading its knowledge as widely as possible makes grim sense. Advice for the Leaders and Soldiers of the Islamic State, new edition, is a potent reminder that ISIS sees its recent setback as but an episode in a very long war.
Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-rogers/isis-in-eleven-shades-of-black?
The article in English is within an issue of Dabiq and was found on a non-Jihadist website:https://clarionproject.org/docs/isis...waziristan.pdf
ISIS Is Ready For a Resurgence
https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/201...seone_today_nl
Quote:
For nearly a year, Islamic State-watchers had wondered whether Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of the group, was alive. Then on Wednesday, he resurfaced for the first time in 11 months, releasing a recorded speech to mark the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha. In the 55-minute speech—his longest of those that have been made public—he referenced recent events, indicating that it was recorded over the past few weeks.
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Aside from its preachy opening, Baghdadi’s speech charted a course for ISIS to regroup. In one key passage, he called for lone-actor attacks in Western countries, including bombings, car-rammings, and gun and knife attacks. Previously, such calls only came from ISIS’s former spokesman; coming from the self-styled caliph himself, they’re likely to carry more weight. Baghdadi even quantified his expectations: One attack in the West equals a thousand in the Middle East—a ratio that recalls the Irish Republican Army’s campaign of terror in Britain decades ago, which stipulated that one bomb in Britain was worth 100 in Northern Ireland. ISIS, like the violent Irish nationalists before it, knows that such attacks will garner more publicity and spark greater reaction than the slaughter of 200 Druze civilians in southern Syria or a car bombing in the heart of Baghdad.
Quote:
His speech made it clear that ISIS remembers the lessons of the past two decades very well. Whether his enemies also do is the difference between victory and defeat.
A lot more in the article, to include how they are conducting targeted killings in Iraq to weaken Sunni resistance to ISIS reemergence. No idea how accurate the reporting is, but the author of the article wrote the go to book on ISIS, ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror, so I assuming he knows what he is talking about.
The Cost of Crying Victory: Policy Implications of the IS’s Territorial Collapse
An Anglo-Dutch report 'The Cost of Crying Victory: Policy Implications of the Islamic State’s Territorial Collapse' by ICSR and the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism – The Hague (ICCT).
The Summary opens with:
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In light of the territorial demise of the Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria, this report analyses the continued risks posed by IS. Given that IS is playing a long game, the report calls upon policymakers to keep up the counter-terrorism pressure, to sidestep policy fatigue at all costs to avoid undoing years of progress, and to continue fostering the emergence of resilient and inclusive societies.
Link:https://icct.nl/publication/the-cost...rial-collapse/
I have not read it, but Charlie Winter & Shiraz Maher (ICSR) are experts on IS.