China’s leaders and citizens are losing patience with North Korea
A UK academic comment:
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The relationship between public opinion and foreign policy is a complex one for any country to manage. That’s especially true in China; while its authoritarian political institutions might seem relatively insulated from popular sentiment compared to their counterparts in many democracies, no sensible leader in any state can completely ignore what their citizens think. All this said, many people in China still believe their country should support Pyongyang. They aren’t necessarily big fans of Kim Jong-un or his signature hairstyle; they’re more worried that should his government collapse, a violent chapter in history might repeat itself.
With a reminder how domestic policy could restrain China:
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..very few Chinese parents, many of whom have only one child thanks to the country’s family planning policy, would ever take the idea of military conflict lightly.
Link:https://theconversation.com/chinas-leaders-and-citizens-are-losing-patience-with-north-korea-75262?
OOOOOOH FUUUUUUUC.....: clarity
WaPo has an article assessing the missiles plus shown yesterday and notes the tubes content is unknown. It relies on Jeffrey Lewis aka @ArmsControlWonk and cites his colleague, Melissa Hanham who authored the "Oooh" tweet.
She noted:
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Solid fuel is very significant because they can launch these missiles much faster and with a smaller entourage than with #liquid-fueled missiles, making them much harder for the United States, South Korea and Japan to spot from satellites.
Link:https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ff-one-by-one/
Analyzing North Korea's Missile Parade: Prescription For Fear, Dose Of Reality
From Tyler Rogoway at TheWarzone: http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone...ose-of-reality
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An unprecedented number eyes were focused on Pyongyang yesterday for this year's Day of The Sun military parade. Largely this was because the rhetoric between the US and North Korea has never been so hot, and there has been real posturing to go along with it. Intelligence agencies and journalists alike watch the display closely to see what new military capabilities the Kim regime will put on display, and as a result you probably woke up to headlines like "North Korea shows off sinister new ICBM" and the like.
It seems like many are quick to forget that this event happens on parade grounds, not a military technology testing and proving ground. Parades usually have floats, and big ominous looking missile canisters, and even missiles themselves, can be just that—elaborate displays—and nothing more.
We know what missile capabilities the North Koreans have actually tested, and what remains on their wish list.
The War Zone was among the first to warn of Kim's changing missile development strategy, and we have followed every major launch very closely since.
There is no question North Korea has gained incredible momentum towards a true intercontinental ballistic missile and submarine-launched ballistic missile capability over the last year, but that doesn't mean rolling a big transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) with a massive missile canister on top proves that there is anything inside.
It is best to think of this event as a place at which Pyongyang can make their end-game aspirations a brief but synthetic reality—a blank canvas for which to paint their most deadly hopes and dreams.
So no, just because it rolls through Kim Il Sung Square does not make it real—at least not real yet. But that also doesn't mean that it is all fake—far from it. Once again, many of these systems are actually in testing, and outgrowths of their original designs are both logical and expected...
