Assessing Revolution and Insurgent Strategy Project
Although I have posted this before on SWJ I will repost it for those who are interested in studying revolutions and insurgent strategies. This is a very useful resource for those who take the time to get to know it.
Assessing Revolution and Insurgent Strategy Project
http://www.soc.mil/ARIS/ARIS.html
Casebook on Insurgency and Revolutionary Warfare: 23 Summary Accounts
http://www.soc.mil/ARIS/CasebookV1S.pdf
Casebook on Insurgency and Revolutionary Warfare, Volume II 1962 - 2009.
http://www.soc.mil/ARIS/Casebook%20V...004-27-12S.pdf
Human Factors Considerations of Underground in Insurgencies, 2d Edition, 2013, http://www.soc.mil/ARIS/HumanFactorsS.pdf
Undergrounds in Insurgent, Revolutionary and Resistance Warfare, 2d Edition, 2013, http://www.soc.mil/ARIS/UndergroundsS.pdf
The effect of election fever
It struck me that this section could apply to the democratic political process, with different words:
Quote:
Political Struggle:
Dan Van - Action among your people - total mobilization of propaganda, motivational & organizational measures to manipulate internal masses and fighting units
Binh Van - Action among enemy military - subversion, proselytizing, propaganda to encourage desertion, defection and lowered morale among enemy troops.
Dich Van - Action among enemy's people - total propaganda effort to sow discontent, defeatism, dissent, and disloyalty among enemy's population.
A quick re-write: Mobilise your people and potential voters; keep interference to a minimum (domestic and external) and discourage your opponent's people and their voters.
A film on the ANA: Tell Spring Not to Come This Year
I missed this film showing and talk @ The Frontline Club (London) and was reminded today:http://www.frontlineclub.com/tell-sp...national-army/
Quote:
directors Michael McEvoy and Saeed Taji Farouky follow an Afghan National Army (ANA) battalion for a year as they confront the transition of power in Helmand Province — one of the most unstable areas of the country.....The whole point was that for the past 14 years we’ve heard almost nothing from, not only the Afghans, but particularly the Afghan army. That’s why, he explained, there’s no voiceover in the film, which is told completely by Afghan soldiers. “It would be unjust for us to now speak on their behalf..said Taji Farouky.
A telling explanation:
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Why they fight
Even though a soldier in the film complains at one point that he hasn’t been paid for nine months, and another says he hasn’t been on leave in four or five months, the battalion appears to remain committed to their mission.
“Unemployment is obviously pretty big in Afghanistan. Many of the soldiers are from the north and they would join up in big groups of lads from their villages just to find work,” McAvoy said, adding that the ANA is one of the most stable employers in the entire country.
Although that’s a big part of why many join up, “there is a genuine sense of national pride: ‘We are Afghan, the Taliban are enemies of Afghanistan. We genuinely want to be here to defend our country,’” he said. “I think it’s simpler when you’re fighting in your own country and you feel like you’re defending your own home than if you go on some foreign campaign.”
It’s a testament that they stick on, he continued. “They’re not paid very well, they don’t go on leave for ages, the food sucks — big time. The U.S. stopped paying for their food budget and the ministry of finance turned to the ministry of defence and said ‘well, we haven’t got any money.’ So basically they just cut the food budget in half. By the end it was a piece of bread for breakfast, a plate of plain rice for lunch, and then for dinner some sort of watery soup with essence of meat.
There is a very short film clip and I have not been able to find a full version (those on YouTube are deleted or behind a "wall").
Strictly speaking the film is from 2014, so should be in another thread, ah well Moderator's discretion rules.:wry:
District by District the Taliban advance
In Helmand Province Now Zad has fallen and from The Long War Journal a report which starts with:
Quote:
The Taliban overran the district center and several military and police installations in Now Zad in the southern Afghan province of Helmand yesterday. The fall of Now Zad is the latest in a series of setbacks for the Afghan security forces and government, which are struggling to maintain control of areas liberated from the Taliban just a few years ago.
Link:http://www.longwarjournal.org/archiv...d-province.php
A wider story from the BBC:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-33557320
Sorry, Folks: Things Are Not Actually Going So Great
From the Lawfare blog:
Quote:
Editor’s Note: A few weeks ago, we ran a provocative piece by Stephen Watts and Sean Mann (RAND analysts)
in which they argued that in both its politics and in its development, Afghanistan is doing better than is commonly believed. Gary Owen, a civilian development worker who has spent the last several years working on the ground in Afghanistan, begs to differ. He paints a far gloomier picture of Afghanistan, arguing that the country and U.S. policy have a long way to go.
The first aricle:https://www.lawfareblog.com/afghanistan-after-drawdown
The second article:https://www.lawfareblog.com/sorry-fo...at-afghanistan
A couple of "tasters":
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Actually, it’s pretty clear how those forces will perform. In a word? Badly. Since the Afghans assumed control of the country’s security in 2014, more civilians have been killed, more soldiers have died, more Afghan troops have deserted than ever before, and security forces are still torturing one-third of their detainees.
Since most engagements occur among the population when one is countering an insurgency, this change in the rules of engagement means more innocent civilians are going to die as the result of actions by Afghan security forces. That’s borne out by the
latest report on civilian casualties from UNAMA, which found that throughout the first half of 2015, Afghan forces caused more civilian casualties than the Taliban did. And when they’re not busy leveling villages, Afghan forces are dying in record numbers.
It all bodes very badly for Helmand
Hat tip to WoTR for recirculating a commentary by Ben Anderson, once with the BBC & other outlets, now with VICE, for his June 2015 report on a visit to Helmand Province; the video (5 mins):http://www.vice.com/read/watch-host-...fghanistan-869
The Q&A interview:http://warontherocks.com/2015/09/a-d...n-afghanistan/
I cannot readily find his film report, but this is his written report, which covers the ANSF, ALP and the Taliban:http://www.vice.com/read/notes-from-...s-province-102
Over extended and time to pull back?
From WoTR:warontherocks.com/2015/09/how-to-lose-a-civil-war-lessons-for-afghanistan-and-syria/?
I had missed this detail, hence my emphasis:
Quote:
While Afghanistan’s situation is not yet as dire as that of Syria, Kabul’s decisions need to be shaped by a clearer recognition of what can be accomplished on the battlefield. The long-vacant position of defense minister needs to be filled with a permanent appointment.
Perhaps having a minister in Kabul means little given Afghan politics power lies elsewhere?
What does the fall of Kunduz mean?
Hat tip to WoTR for this commentary by a RAND analyst, who has been "on the ground" and gives an excellent overview of the context:http://warontherocks.com/2015/10/the...-afghanistan/?
He ends with:
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What is readily apparent is that losing Kunduz city, even temporarily, has exposed a number of shortcomings within the Afghan government and security forces. In the aftermath of this, Afghan officials and their coalition partners need to ask some hard questions about where their efforts have gone wrong and what can credibly be done to recover from the most significant blow yet to the post-Taliban Afghan state.
Helmand: shrinking GIRoA presence
A lurid headline in today's Daily Telegraph 'Taliban seize British stronghold in Helmand as security unravels', as:
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A Western official said Lashkar Gah.. was now “under serious military pressure”....As many as 400 fighters are advancing on Chah-e Anjir only around 10 miles from Lashkar Gah.
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...-unravels.html
The headline ignores the fact the UK left Helmand Province a year ago, so it is no longer a British stronghold.