Stay calm as speculators roam
We have discussed the role of ISI before on other threads, partly due to their reported role inside Pakistan, the frustration of outsiders at the politics of the region and sheer dismay that a partner state, maybe an ally does not always "jump" to US demands, requests or whatever.
I remain unconvinced today that the deluge of mainly US press reporting based on IMHO unprecedented "leaks" by the US government that SWC can judge what really happened over OBL, let alone wider issues. I am simply astonished that the US press and I assume others have accepted "leaks" on the initial review of the 'treasure trove' from OBL's home. Even more so after the first, official press briefings were so quickly retracted on important details.
Did OBL keep his data all in English? Might it have been encrypted?
We need to remain calm.
Now how the Pakistani state reacts after such a body blow is less likely to be so public, although amidst SWC members there are many who can make valid judgements today.
What I would ask those who post here and others who read - is this body blow an opportunity for civil institutions to exert greater control over state bodies? Yes, ISI and the military. I fear not, for many obvious well known reasons.
Responding to thoughts and irony
Quote:
Originally Posted by
carl
David:
What do you think of this thought. The Pak Army/ISI runs Pakistan for the most part. They will until they lose a war and are completely discredited. If they win in Afghanistan, drive us out and re-install the Taliban, their power will be that much more firmly entrenched. Then the next war they will have an opportunity to lose will be one with India. When they lose that one, they will be discredited and civilians might be able to run Pakistan. The trouble is, Pakistan might not survive the lost war.
So the irony could be, we are fighting in Afghanistan to defeat the Pak Army/ISI in order to save Pakistan.
Carl,
Given the history of military on military conflict, four wars since 1947 and countless skirmishing, last at Kargil, I am puzzled why the Pakistani Army has not fully been brought under civilian control. Perhaps after these defeats, notably the loss of East Pakistan, it was not the time for change. The bigger questions are not around the timing or need - as perceived by outsiders - rather the will and capability to act. Finally would the orders be obeyed?
I would not say the Pakistani Army runs Pakistan; the army controls national security decision-making and Pakistan has many problems that the army stays away from, e.g. water management. When the economy was growing some were optimistic that traditional power-bases would wane, notably the rural landowning elite (who control the main political parties).
What I do note is the reported frustration of professionals who strive to change and serve the people amidst a deteriorating internal crime and order environment. Many of whom are capable of leaving.
In fact upon reflection I wonder if the military do not already have little positive credit and Pakistanis are a proud people, so what has just occurred will detract from their credibility as a national institution.
Secondly, if the Taliban were re-installed in Afghanistan - as you indicated, I am not convinced Pakistanis would be that concerned. I found they looked down on Afghans and the activities since of the Pakistani extremists (PTT plus) will hardly have enhanced their feelings / desire to follow that path.
Finally and as a reminder:
Quote:
..we are fighting in Afghanistan to defeat the Pak Army/ISI in order to save Pakistan.
No. The only people who can save Pakistan are the Pakistanis. Defeating the Afghan Taliban is a side issue.