Thoughts on the attacks in Uganda
Always worth a read Leah Farrell from Australia:http://allthingsct.wordpress.com/201...cks-in-uganda/
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So…. if my speculation pans out, what can we expect to see??
Well, first a polished al-Shabab propaganda video, referencing the attacks and labeling them with some derivative or signifier of the Battle of Badr, and announcing the new AQ branch name. Alternatively an announcement from AQ HQ, but with Adam’s piss poor efforts at As Sahaab lately that’s not likely and I’d bank more on a slick presentation from al-Shabab.
Anyway, there’s my two cents worth on it all. As I said it could very well be a case of these attacks being opportunity driven and related more to regional dynamics.
However, it is also worth bearing in mind that an expansion of a group’s operational ambit in a manner like this has been a feature of group behaviour just prior to a merger with AQ core, as well as being a trait of those seeking formal sanction.
Museweni wants to kick the terrorist out of Africa
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Opening the summit, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni called for action to "sweep the terrorists' out of Africa.
And he blamed foreigners for the Kampala attacks, which the Somali-base al-Shebab group has said it carried out.
"Let them go back to Asia or the Middle East where I understand some come from," he said.
Museveni also said many of the organisers of the attacks in Kampala have been arrested and questioned.
"Their interrogations have yielded very good information," he added.
Mutharika declared the organisation's solidarity with Uganda.
"The African Union stands with you, my brother President Museveni, and with the people of Uganda," he said in his opening remarks.
The summit was supposed to concentrate on women, children and health but these questions have so far been overshadowed by the response to the Kampala bombings.
Museveni tried to allay fears by women and child rights activists here that the original theme of the summit was being put in the back seat as leaders grapple with Somalia, Sudan and reform of the UN Security Council," reports Billie O'Kadameri from the summit. "The theme chosen chosen for this summit is 'Maternal and Child Health and Infant Development in Africa' but Museveni said it was a narrow view of looking at the bigger problem.
http://allafrica.com/stories/201007250027.html
I believe the message is pretty clear. Will Uganda be the Africa policeman for Central Africa in the future?
At least, they are playing a more and more important role in the regional stabilisation process.
11/7: The July 2010 Kampala Bombings
An interesting analysis of the incident and repercussions by RUSI's African expert (a Zimbabwean): http://www.rusi.org/analysis/comment...4C45B35122E02/
On the domestic aspects this intrigued me:
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Interestingly, there is also strong civilian support at home for Uganda's deployment. The atrocities committed by the Lord's Resistance Army (which has itself become a regional threat), remain indelibly etched in the memories of Ugandans. Al Shabab also uses brutal methods including beheadings and maimings, and most Ugandans fear that a full al Shabab takeover in Somalia would spread Islamist extremism and social conflict throughout the Horn and East of Africa. They thus prefer that Somalia, rather than Uganda, remains the battleground for the Ugandan army operations against al Shabab.