The next small war in the Middle East is ...
one that's been waged for 3 generations: Palestinian people vs. Israel.
Who will win? That's the ultimate question for any discussion about war. Not who SHOULD win, or DESERVES to win, or who has the best soldiers, tactics, or equipment. Just the bottom line.
Here's one forecast, explicit with supporting logic:
"The Fate of Israel" by Fabius Maximus
Part two in a series of articles about grand strategy in a 4GW Era.
Demonstrates the difficultly of distinguishing strong from weak in 4GW,
and that choosing the wrong grand strategy can be terminal for a state.
http://www.d-n-i.net/fcs/fabius_fate_of_israel.htm
Palestinian population myths
There is substantial evidence that the Palestian Authority grossly fudgeed the numbers on the Palestinian census. The numbers may have been off by a factor of 2 million. Notwithstanding that, what the Major has suggested is actually Hamas's position on a Palestian state from the Jordon to the Ocean. Their problem is that they do not control much of that space and it is unlikely that the Israelis will give them that opportunity.