Allies Offer US Strong Advantages, And Some Risk, In China Rivalry
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Allies Offer US Strong Advantages, And Some Risk, In China Rivalry
America counts heavily on a cordon of allies stretching from Japan to the north down to Thailand, and across to India, in the highly unlikely event of war with China. But these same allies could draw the U.S. into strictly local disputes in which America does not always have a clear security interest and which could destabilize the region.
Asian powers including India and Japan possess large, sophisticated navies and air arms which, combined with U.S. Pacific forces, could outgun the rapidly-modernizing People's Liberation Army in wartime. And in peacetime, these same regional powers can help as counters to Beijing's growing influence.
In most conflicts short of war in Indo-Pacific Asia, however, Washington must be careful not to take sides, for backing allies in even minor spats could come at the cost of regional stability, experts say......
http://defense.aol.com/2012/09/11/al...n-china-rivar/
Coast guard activity could build confidence
From an observer and edited:
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As you astutely observe, the North Pacific Coast Guard Forum is an excellent example of how otherwise militarily mistrustful countries can develop confidence-building measures through paramilitary agencies. As such, it does indeed, as you suggest, pose a potential template for the South China Sea.
There are, though, various barriers to the creation of a South China Sea Coast Guard Forum, primarily owing to the actors involved: China perceives a much greater benefit to be gained through coordination with the advanced and substantial coast guards of the North Pacific. By contrast, there are relatively few practical gains to be had from China engaging with the coast guards of most South-east Asian countries.
Nonetheless, as a confidence building measures (CBM), and one that could be driven by non-disputants such as Singapore, it is certainly a worthwhile suggestion and idea to pursue.
U.S. Geopolitics: Afghanistan and the Containment of China
U.S. Geopolitics: Afghanistan and the Containment of China
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Sino-US relations: roles reversed, think about it
About pivot! A thought provoking article id'd by The Lowy Institute blog on Sino-US relations, which reverses the two nations positions:
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Historically, it is somewhat unusual for one great power to have a tight set of alliances in the immediate neighborhood of another great power and to maintain a lot of military force in its vicinity, without the other power having a compensating presence in close proximity to its rival.
Which goes on:
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What if we lived in a geopolitical bizarre world, in which, instead of the US having two treaty allies on China's doorstep with accompanying naval and air force bases and tens of thousands of troops, it was China which held the strategic upper hand in the Americas? A naval base in Cuba, perhaps. An alliance with Canada which included the permanent basing of 100,000 Chinese troops. Near-constant surveillance flights and regular submarine patrols off the California coast.
I'm not saying this is China's ambition, merely that the idea of it exposes how unusual the current Asian balance of power arrangement is, and how understandable it would be for the US to chafe at such treatment, particularly if, in this bizarre world scenario, the US was just blossoming into an economic giant which wanted to take its proper place as a world power.
Link:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/...e-in-Asia.aspx
The original article which led to the Lowy piece was by Stephen Walt on FP, which is slightly longer, is called 'How long will China tolerate America's role in Asia':http://www.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2...e_us_and_china
There is a long-running thread 'China's Emergence as a Superpower', with 712 posts and nearly 83k views since February 2006. Maybe this thread will be merged there one day:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=4366
What Happens When a Navy Officer Gets Real on China?
What Happens When a Navy Officer Gets Real on China?
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China Boast: U.S. Marines Would be Like ‘Marching Band’ in All Out Fight
China Boast: U.S. Marines Would be Like ‘Marching Band’ in All Out Fight
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Navy: China has not attacked U.S. aircraft carrier
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The aircraft carrier George Washington has not been attacked, and World War III has not begun, despite what tweets from United Press International say, the Navy has confirmed.
The carrier is in port, not in the South China Sea, the Navy told Military Times on Friday.
UPI issued a statement on Friday saying its Twitter account and website had been hacked on Friday afternoon.
http://www.navytimes.com/story/milit...-upi/21868543/
Is a U.S. war with China Unthinkable?
http://theweek.com/articles/548388/u...may-inevitable
A U.S.-China war is unthinkable. It also may be inevitable.
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First, the economic tension: "Beijing's plans for a new multilateral Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank have put Washington on edge," notes Johns Hopkins China expert Ho-fung Hung. "More than 40 countries, including major United States allies in Europe, have signed up to join it despite the Obama administration's objections and warnings."
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Then, the militarization and geopolitics: Obama's new Defense secretary, Ash Carter, is telegraphing a response to China's aggressive militarization of the South China Sea. "We and many other countries are deeply concerned about some of the activities China is undertaking,"
The Improbable War - a book
Just spotted this on a HJS mailing for an event a month ago in London:
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With Professor Christopher Coker, Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science, and author of The Improbable War: China, the United States and the Logic of Great Power Conflict.
Professor Coker expanded upon the arguments set forth in his book, arguing that the next global conflict is likely to be played out in cyberspace and outer space and like all previous wars it will have devastating consequences. He made a case for why such a war between the United States and China may seem improbable, but is actually all too possible.
Transcript of event:http://henryjacksonsociety.org/2015/...ower-conflict/