Heh. Do I start from Apr 2003 or today?
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Originally Posted by
Global Scout
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... So instead, we support the Sunni's from the bottom up, by forming militia groups.
And, I betcha, support for some Shia groups is provided by elements of 'we' as well.
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Each of these strategies tend to counteract the other, so if Ken has a plan to bring this all to bay, I would definitely like to hear it. At the same type our political will hour glass is running out of sand.
You're obviously correct in all that and, given my firm belief most of that did not have to happen, I asked the question re: when do I start... :D
Reality intrudes; starting today, huh? Sigh.
For AQI -- your prescription, Belfast x2 -- seems to me we're doing that with a mix of ISF, regular units and SOF. The FRLs -- your prescription again, placatory COIN. Seems to me we're also doing that right now. For the Sunni-Shia divide; repeat after me. "Our Father who art..."
I joke. For that divide, we go Byzantine and bribe heavily while striving to convince the farthest out elements on each side that we do have and will use a hammer if necessary (our daily improving intel and zapping a leader or two sporadically aids in this, we need to keep doing that and also scuff up an Irani occasionally to keep them a little honest). It appears from here we may be doing that as well, can't tell for sure. That particular problem is literally older than we are and while we exacerbated it, it will never disappear completely; and anyone who thinks it will is, I believe, deluded. It can only be contained and in the ME, bribery and death most always keep somewhat of a lid on things while appeals to reason (in the western sense) rarely do...
Gaurantees? None. Probability? ~ 60-75%. Close enough for Guvmint work. Never yet seen a 100% solution in warfare...
Edited to add: Check the LINK
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I also think the definition between a resistance force and an insurgency is a useful definition. A resistance force is still an insurgency, but it is easier for them to maintain the moral high ground and mobilize the population to support them, such as the French Resistance fighting the Germans. A pure insurgency, such as in Greece in the early 50's, is more likely to fail, because their rallying call is normally limited to a few malcontents. A resistance defines the type of insurgency, and that nuance is important.
Yes there is a difference and it is important. The interesting thing is that the Sunni-Shia divide element in Iraq allows either side to claim they are a resistance movement and their opponent to claim "Nay, not so -- they are insurgents" and thus both suffer from the advantages and disadvantages you cite. Still, if one does the math...
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Ken, if the oil keeps flowing to the global economy, then we won :), or perhaps better stated, at least we didn't mess that up too.
Yet. ;)
Prob'ly will keep flowing, too many derive an advantage if it does so. There'll be the random nut case who'll try to disrupt it but I doubt they'll be successful.
We have messed up a bunch, all really IMO understandable (though not necessarily excusable) and most contributed to by too many players with competing agendas here in the US and our overweening bureaucracy which severely hinders flexibility. Democracies are like that, goes with the territory, I'm afraid. Neat thing is we cobble stuff together better'n most.