A really bad day for bin Laden – and for Pakistan
A really bad day for bin Laden – and for Pakistan
Entry Excerpt:
The killing of Osama bin Laden is a satisfying triumph for Americans and the U.S. government. It would have been even more satisfying had it occurred in the weeks and months after the September 2001 attacks. But the fact that it took a decade to finally kill bin Laden should be warning to any who doubt the long memories and persistence of the U.S. government’s counterterrorism forces. They didn’t forget and they never stopped working on the problem.
The Joint Special Operations Command, presumably the command responsible for the mission, should get credit for demonstrating its ability to successfully raid targets virtually anywhere in the world. The CIA also gets credit for patiently developing the required intelligence and for reminding everyone of the value of battlefield captures, interrogations, and human intelligence.
Finally, President Barack Obama deserves great credit for taking the risk of ordering this raid. He likely knew that the past record of such high-visibility raids was not good and that much more can go wrong with these operations than go right. He must also have known that another Desert One fiasco could have been disastrous on several levels.
Most notable was Obama’s willingness to shatter America’s relationship with Pakistan in order to take a gamble on getting bin Laden. For this raid is a black day for Pakistan and its relationship with the United States. As the White House background briefing on the raid makes clear, the United States kept the raid completely concealed from the Pakistani government. Combine this with the fact that bin Laden was found in a highly protected compound in a wealthy town near Pakistan’s capital, and a stone’s throw from a Pakistani military academy. Americans will be right to conclude that Pakistan was bin Laden’s long-time friend and not America’s. What little support Pakistan still enjoys in Washington will now likely melt away. Pakistan will have to look to China, its last friend, for the support it will need to survive.
Although the struggle against terrorism will go on, the death of bin Laden will bring a sense of finality for most in the American electorate. Combine that with more evidence of Pakistan’s duplicity, the evident breakdown in relations between the United States and Pakistan, and what will likely be the most bloody year for U.S. soldiers fighting in Afghanistan. The result could be a final collapse of public support for the war in Afghanistan. That probably won’t bother President Obama too much and will bolster his argument to accelerate the U.S. withdrawal from that war later this year.
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Wary of the cascade of news?
Scrolling through a variety of news reports I am not convinced much of the reporting and commentary is well-based.
In support I cite Rob Baer on the BBC's Live column stated:
Quote:
Former CIA field officer Bob Baer tells the BBC World Service the intelligence sources that led to the operation are unlikely to be revealed. 'Intelligence agencies and the military will simply put out disinformation to protect the real sources, which could have been anything from intercepts to the Pakistani government itself'.
For good, political reasons the USA will congratulate itself and I do not diminish the respect due to those who undertook the mission.
As regards OBL's death I expect Muslim opinion will focus upon until satisfactory proof is provided - notably a photo - and the DNA statement (just) helps. I am happy to await any such footage.
The manner of his burial is potentially controversial, again until fully explained soon IMHO.
I would speculate that OBL's body was removed and buried at sea following a plan when KSA reportedly refused permission for it's return.
All that aside Ahmed Rashid is worth reading:
Quote:
The killing of al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden is a huge blow to the organisation but as guest columnist Ahmed Rashid reports, its decentralised nature means it has the potential to carry out attacks on any number of targets.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13257441
Jihadist Forums React to OBL's death
Punditry, sorry an ICSR Insight:http://icsr.info/blog/ICSR-Insight--...-Ladens-Death-
Alas the Insight is distracted by other issues, but I am sure a SWC reader will soon decide what has value.
The 'Compound' factor Part 2
I searched in vain for a long ago post on fugitives and my view for sometime that OBL was not in a cave, nor a mountain valley in NWFP, but a walled compound in a Pakistani city. A compound that reduces external oversight to the minimum, high walls is one way, but in Pakistan a common design feature when affordable. With covering, vines and awnings to reduce overhead / oblique observation. Yes, never look up. Following the advice of an Australian colleague with no electronic signature too; I notice the one BBC photo shows a satellite dish.
'Hiding in plain sight' is a saying from fugitive hunting and I suppose being near a military garrison supports that.
There are tens of thousands of compounds fitting those criteria across Pakistan's urban areas.
Addition: BBC Live feed has this:
Quote:
2057: Ebrar from London, writes: "Most of the rich people in Abottabad have high walls and barbed wires around their house. I had land in Abottabad with walls and barbed wire, so no one can jump in and play cricket or use it. Abottabad is a military garrison town, everyone lives near it. Military are everywhere.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698