Lessons to be learned from other small wars?
Someone mentioned in another thread that the SWC and SWJ seem to have a dearth of lessons from Kosovo and Bosnia, and that the current state of affairs may approximate the shaky government of Lebanon soon.
With regard to Lebanon's history of governance (and realizing that 1:1 parallels are difficult due to the ethnic/religious terrain), are there any lessons we can gleam from that past, in order to find a way ahead in Iraq?
More importantly, are there any academics or policy-makers looking at the history of Lebanon for rudder steer? Can we focus our deliberations on strategic and diplomatic options by looking at what worked or didn't work there?
Both Syria and Iran have a stake in Iraq, and although it is not necessarily the same stake they had/have in Lebanon, can we build a model of likely responses to our moves (wargaming if you will) by analysing that country's past?
Study Group to Call for Pullback
30 November Washington Post - Study Group to Call for Pullback by Thomas Ricks and Robin Wright.
Quote:
The Iraq Study Group, which wrapped up eight months of deliberations yesterday, has reached a consensus and will call for a major withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq, shifting the U.S. role from combat to support and advising, according to a source familiar with the deliberations.
But the recommendation includes a series of conditions and qualifications that would govern any drawdown of forces, the source said. "It describes a process by which combat brigades could be pulled out, but there wasn't a specific timetable on it," he said. The source demanded anonymity because members of the bipartisan panel have been pledged to secrecy until the report is officially issued Dec. 6...
30 November Washington Times - Joint Chiefs Oppose Iraq Pullout by Rowan Scarborough.
Quote:
All six members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, amid an ongoing Pentagon review of strategy for Iraq, oppose pulling out U.S. troops now, and are also against a specific withdrawal timetable, a defense source said yesterday...
The Joint Chiefs -- which includes Gen. Peter Pace, the chairman, along with a vice chairman and the heads of the Air Force, Army, Marine Corps and Navy -- have been meeting several times a week to review a list of Iraq options for President Bush...
Diplomacy, War, and Communications
Folks,
I would indeed push for more comms with Syria and Iran--both open and behind closed doors. In keeping with the old advice keep your friends close and your enemies closer, communications with all parties, regardless of agenda, is basic diplomacy 101 and should be part of warfighting 401.
The worst thing you can do (to your own interests) is paint the opponent into a corner where his only option is to fight to the death. In some cases that is unavoidable and in some cases the opponent does it for you.
Rhetoric on either (or all) side is part of the equation; using simple rhetoric often traps the speaker in a position, especially Western speakers because of credibilty with the audience.
Bottom line: don't nail communications doors shut. Sooner or later you will have to reopen them.
Best
Tom
Second and Third Order of Effects
Pulling out is an option but what are the second and third order of effects? Who will fill the void, the Iraqi Army, Iran, or Saudi Arabia? We need to make sure we make the right decision this time or we will pay for it long after we leave.
Ex Speaker of the House on Fox
I caught the tail end of Newt Gingrich on FOX news tonight (channel hopping, I normally don't watch Fox), and he was being challenged about the will and ability of the Iraqi military to fight. Newt said that the positive indicator of 50 recruits getting killed in a suicide bombing (I'm paraphrasing) was that there were 50 recruits signing up to fight for their country.
I wonder if they are signing up to fight for their country, or signing up for work in most cases due to the high unemployment? Some could be signing up to get the training, then go back to their militia, etc. However, if he is correct that recruits are lining up to protect Iraq (not a sub-tribe) then that would be a good news story.