Wrong strategy in the wrong place
Professor Paul Rogers asks "Will more the same, fewer in number work" or something similar and near the start:
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....the war in Afghanistan is evolving into a conflict even more intense than in recent years, one that will inevitably demand far more of Donald Trump’s attention than he would like.
Citing the latest SIGAR report:
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A dangerous and stubborn insurgency controls or exerts influence over areas holding about a third of the Afghan population. Heavy casualties and capability gaps limit the effectiveness of Afghan soldiers and police. Opium production stands at near record levels.
He ends with:
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After 15 years of failure, more troops will be seen as the answer, with little chance of any other approach being tried. That makes three regimes toppled in the War on Terror era (the Taliban, Saddam Hussein, and Gaddafi), and three countries wrecked – but still no fundamental reflection on a strategy that’s clearly failed.
Link:https://theconversation.com/deadly-kabul-bombing-heralds-a-new-western-surge-in-afghanistan-77041?
Now we have clarity from Pakistan's Army?
A curious commentary from a RUSI analyst, a Pakistani, that suggests a new firmness in the Pakistani Army's stance on Afghanistan under the new Chief of Staff's leadership:https://rusi.org/commentary/pakistan...on-fewer-words
Two passages:
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On the Afghan front, Bajwa’s argument seems to be that Pakistan has secured its own territory and it is not the Pakistani army’s job to secure Afghanistan, as this is up to NATO and the Afghan National Army. This may be debatable, but one conclusion is clear: Pakistan’s military leadership is no longer either apologetic or pretending to play along with any foreign narrative on Afghanistan.
(Later) ....in Afghanistan, Bajwa has brought more clarity
Really the Pakistan Army have pretended to play along with a foreign narrative? No, they have always followed their interests, even if that meant assisting killing NATO soldiers and enabling NATO to be in Afghanistan at the same time or with some temporary interruptions.
Badakhshan: here we come!
A short website report entitled:
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China Building Military Base on Afghan-Tajik Border (then adds) The plan, if it is realized, promises a deeper Chinese military involvement in Tajikistan, which is necessary as a supply corridor to Badakhshan.
Even more curious:
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some media have
reported that Chinese military vehicles were using Tajikistan territory to transit to Badakhshan for military patrols...Chinese patrols inside Afghanistan had ended in late 2016. It's not clear whether those patrols were ever restarted, but this base, if realized, would seem to portend much heavier traffic in the future
Link:http://www.eurasianet.org/node/86661
First time I've seen this website, so this helps:
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Based in New York, EurasiaNet.org is hosted by Columbia University’s Harriman Institute, one of the leading centers in North America of scholarship concerning Eurasia.
Link:http://www.eurasianet.org/node/14733
Why is China in Afghanistan
Mike Martin offers a short (2 mins) explanation for China's role in Afghanistan.
Link:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxFQ...ature=youtu.be
Is Russia arming the Afghan Taliban?
A long BBC World Service article that poses this question: Is Russia arming the Afghan Taliban? Which concludes:
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Moscow's reappearance in Afghan affairs is largely designed to irritate the Americans.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41842285
It builds on an interview of General John Nicholson in late March 2018 and I cite it in part:
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We see a narrative that's being used that grossly exaggerates the number of Isis [Islamic State group] fighters here. This narrative then is used as a justification for the Russians to legitimise the actions of the Taliban and provide some degree of support to the Taliban. We've had stories written by the Taliban that have appeared in the media about financial support provided by the enemy. We've had weapons brought to this headquarters and given to us by Afghan leaders and said, this was given by the Russians to the Taliban. We know that the Russians are involved.
(At the end) This activity really picked up in the last 18 to 24 months. Prior to that we had not seen this kind of destabilising activity by Russia here. When you look at the timing it roughly correlates to when things started to heat up in Syria. So it's interesting to note the timing of the whole thing
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-43500299