Interesting attack by Al Shabab
JarodParker,
This is a very interesting development and I am afraid one that might eventually lead to a large-scale military intervention. The fear for a while now has been that Al Shabab would begin operations outside of Somalia. Kenya was the most likely target according to experts but the Uganda attack makes a lot of sense given the number of troops from Uganda intervening in Somalia.
I am growing increasingly worried that this or a number of other triggers are developing that will prompt a president to intervene again in Somalia. Please note I am not advocating sitting on our hands in the Somalia case. My fear revolves around the proclivity for the response to be pre-ordained as a large-scale coin or stability operation. There are other options which need to be considered, and in my opinion, implemented first.
Cheers
DC
Guards for Somali Leader Join Islamists
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Rex Brynen
It doesn't help, of course, that not all of the TFG troops are sure what side they are on, or necessarily care!
As I was saying.... :wry:
Quote:
Guards for Somali Leader Join Islamists
By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN and MOHAMED IBRAHIM
New York Times, 22 July 2010
NAIROBI, Kenya — Somali officials acknowledged on Thursday that members of Somalia’s presidential guard had defected to the Shabab, the radical Islamist insurgent group that claimed responsibility for the recent bombings in Uganda that killed more than 70 people watching the final game of the World Cup.
The defection of some of the president’s best-trained men is the latest setback for Somalia’s beleaguered transitional government, which has lost important pieces of territory in the past few days. Insurgents are now 300 yards — a rifle shot away — from the presidential palace.
...
South African troops to Somalia?
An unexpected twist to the AU involvement in Somalia:
Quote:
The African Union’s (AU) mission in Somalia could soon receive a boost, with reports suggesting South Africa may send troops to the troubled country. Themba Maseko, a spokesperson for the South African cabinet said that ministers would be meeting on Wednesday to discuss the possibility of troops from the South African Defence Force joining the mission in Somalia, to supplement the 5,000 troops from Uganda and Burundi that are currently in Mogadishu giving support to the fragile interim government there.
“It appears President Zuma will definitely give a nod to the AU's request for South African military support. The South African government will definitely seize the opportunity to show the continent that they are the big brothers,” said a government source quoted by the Guardian.
Not much more on the link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/opensec...-08-16%2013:27
My recollection was that the SANDF do not have the capability to deploy much beyond a battalion group; perhaps our RSA members can add some facts?
What about Sudanese ones...
Quote:
Sudan to renew efforts to bring peace in Somalia
The Somali President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed wrapped up a three-day visit to Khartoum where he had arrived on Monday for talks with President Omer Al-Bashir on Sudan’s efforts to reconcile the Islamist insurgents with the government.
"We need to Sudan’s important role to resolve the Somali crisis and the coming days will witness new developments and a Sudanese move to reunite the Somali parties and support the central government and the peaceful transfer of power," said President Sheikh Sharif before to leave Khartoum today.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36001
The roads of peace are like those of god to me: incomprehensible...
In Somali Civil War, Both Sides Embrace Pirates
Well, we may need to combine the "piracy" and "not piracy" Somalia threads...
In Somali Civil War, Both Sides Embrace Pirates
By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN
New York Times
Published: September 1, 2010
Quote:
HOBYO, Somalia — Ismail Haji Noor, a local government official, recently arrived in this notorious pirate den with a simple message: we need your help.
With the Shabab militant group sweeping across Somalia and the American-backed central government teetering on life support, Mr. Noor stood on a beach flanked by dozens of pirate gunmen, two hijacked ships over his shoulder, and announced, “From now on we’ll be working together.”
He hugged several well-known pirate bosses and called them “brother” and later explained that while he saw the pirates as criminals and eventually wanted to rehabilitate them, right now the Shabab were a much graver threat.
“Squished between the two, we have to become friends with the pirates,” Mr. Noor said. “Actually, this is a great opportunity.”
For years, Somalia’s heavily armed pirate gangs seemed content to rob and hijack on the high seas and not get sucked into the messy civil war on land. Now, that may be changing, and the pirates are taking sides — both sides....
UN envoy calls for thousands more troops to battle Somali militants
UN envoy calls for thousands more troops to battle Somali militants
Quote:
Somalia may need to triple its peacekeeping troops to 20,000 in the coming months to combat a surging threat by militants, a U.N. official said.
"The threat level in Mogadishu and in southern-central Somalia has actually increased," Augustine Mahiga told the U.N. Security Council on Thursday.
Mahiga said he is concerned about the security in the country and its impact in the region.
"A scaled up assistance from the international community is needed to make a difference," said Mahiga, the special envoy to Somalia.
How Much Turf Does the Somali Government Really Control?
A good, short FP Blog article, with a map, which gives context to the reporting, repeats the fact external actors train Somalis for the government and they defect:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...ntrol?page=0,0
Quote:
Some 9,000 troops have been trained and armed to help fortify the government, but desertion rates are astronomical. Perhaps no more than 1,000 soldiers -- or fewer -- remain. AMISOM peacekeepers, by contrast, number about 7,000.
My brother and the deadly lure of al-Shabab jihad
Copied from Studies on Radicalisation thread:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=7188
The BBC have this article supporting a File on Four radio documentary, on the unclear impact of Al-Shabab on the Somali community in the UK:
Quote:
Jenny Cuffe investigates how British-based Somalis are being lured into fighting for the al-Qaeda-linked Islamists of al-Shabaab.
There have been consistent rumours that dozens, perhaps scores of British-based Somali men have travelled to Somalia to join the militant Islamist group which was banned by the British Government earlier this year.
File on 4 explores the techniques used by Al-Shabaab to persuade young members of the 250,000-strong British Somali community to sign up for Jihad in Somalia. Members of the close-knit and reticent British Somali community tell Jenny Cuffe of their fears that youngsters are being seduced through the internet and by shadowy recruiting sergeants for the Horn of Africa's most feared military force.
And the programme travels to the state of Minnesota to see how a vigorous FBI investigation and cooperation from the Somali community have laid-bare a pipeline which first lured, then transported young American Somalis to the training camps and battlefields of Somalia.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-11667690 and the File on Four podcast:http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00vkxkc
I noted the references by US Customs to the issues around Khat being smuggled into the USA, via the UK originating from Kenya and the suspected fund raising for Al-Shabbab. Khat is not illegal in the UK, unlike the rest of the EU and USA.
Battling Radical Islamist Propaganda in Somalia
Battling Radical Islamist Propaganda in Somalia
Entry Excerpt:
Battling Radical Islamist Propaganda in Somalia:The Information Intervention Option
by Jacob Udo-Udo Jacob
While the international community continues to dither over Somalia, Islamic fundamentalists have taken over control of the country’s information space and other key strategic assets. This article discusses the precarious media environment in Somalia and revisits discourses on Information Intervention, conceptualised by Jamie Metzl in 1997. It examines the nature of UN’s ‘Information Intervention’ in Somalia and argues that the international community can do more by drawing on available legal instruments to carry out ‘coercive’ information intervention.
Download the Full Article: Battling Radical Islamist Propaganda in Somalia:The Information Intervention Option
Dr Jacob Udo-Udo Jacob is a Post-Doctoral Teaching Fellow at the Institute of Communications Studies, University of Leeds, United Kingdom.
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We're Winning in Somalia (really?)
Forgiven my (comment), but I found this short article too optimistic and the sub-title 'With a little more donor support, international forces can help drive al-Shabab out of Mogadishu'. The author is the head of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM).
Quote:
We now effectively control two-thirds of the city -- some 16 square miles -- with more than two dozen security outposts scattered throughout the city. More importantly, this has created a relatively safe haven for 80 percent of the estimated 2 million people who live in Mogadishu's southwestern neighborhoods.
Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...malia?page=0,0
Incidentally a more detailed, military account appeared in the June/July RUSI Journal by ANISOM's military commander.
Drought didn’t cause Somalia's famine
The reliable African correspondent, Aidan Hartley, for The Spectator has been in Somalia again; the article is sub-titled 'War did. And food aid may well make it worse':
Quote:
...For let’s get one thing right: the ‘Somalis’ are not starving. The victims are mainly the weak or minority clans — or anybody who has not armed himself to the teeth.....Across Africa’s Horn, vulnerable populations have been kept alive with food handouts that do not allow them to live well — but maintain their fertility so that their numbers have exploded.
Link:http://www.spectator.co.uk/essays/al...s-famine.thtml
It appears we, those who support charitable relief, are being had again; in the UK there is a current emergency charity appeal and HMG have donated 25m UK Pounds. For details:http://www.dfid.gov.uk/Media-Room/Fe...a-aid-monitor/
When NGOs are part of the problem.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
davidbfpo
You might be interested in what Paul Farmer has to say here about the relationship between NGOs and (the absence of) governments.
A lot of Americans dream of living in a country where the government keeps its hands off of you. Really, there’s no need to dream. Just buy a one-way ticket to Mogadishu.
Evaluating relations between Al-Shabab and Al-Qaeda
The full title is: Dangerous liaison? Evaluating relations between Al-Shabab and Al-Qaeda and ends with:
Quote:
The Al-Shabab-AQAP relationship, though probable, remains largely shrouded in supposition that is based on relatively scarce detailed information. From a logistical and strategic point of view, such a relationship makes sense, particularly given the relatively close geographic proximity of the Somali movement and AQAP as well as a significant number of stated ideological intersections between the Al-Shabab and AQAP leaderships. More concrete details may emerge from the trial of Ahmed Warsame or possibly from the two militant organizations themselves, but until more concrete evidence emerges, the nature of the Al-Shabab-AQAP operational relationship will continue to remain largely obscure.
Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/opensec...utm_campaign=0
An Opportunity in Somalia
An Opportunity in Somalia
Entry Excerpt:
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Yes, still here and starving too.
A thoughtful, if curious opinion article in FP Blog: 'Do Muslims Really Care About Somalia? With a sub-title:If they do, here's how they can save the country from famine.
Aside from the famine and lack of Muslim response, some historical background on internal politics.
I did note the comment, which struck me as odd; alas only cites one BBC report in support:
Quote:
...the U.S.-backed Ethiopian invasion and occupation in 2006 and 2007 -- a war conducted in pursuit of just three al Qaeda suspects.
Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...tries?page=0,0
If there is a famine in the region, which having read a little I remain unconvinced of, I still doubt that the wider international community, whether Muslim or not, feel inclined to help.
By coincidence the BBC reports 3k more troops en route to join the African Unity presence, over the next six months:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15082141
A quick briefing on Somalia: livelihood and politics
A short insight into this troubled land and sub-titled:
Quote:
Somalia's long civil war and political fragmentation define the country to the world. Yet the society also contains potent resources of allegiance and solidarity, says the doyen of Somali studies, Ioan M Lewis.
Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/ioan-m-...d-and-politics
The author Ioan Lewis is Emeritus Professor of Anthropology, London School of Economics.