actually...seems likely to me
my intuition, unencumbered by evidence or expertise, is that this went down pretty much exactly as described by the President and other administration officials. Given the level of OPSEC discipline shown by OBL in the past, I find it completely plausible that he could have installed himself in the compound with no help whatsoever from ISI or any other Pakistani government entity. Dude must have had one hell of a videogame collection, though....how do you keep from going completely stir-crazy, keeping yourself sequestered like that? The weak point is getting inside- any intel on when OBL took up residency?
The Compound factor Part 5 (The ISI visit)
This is a very curious statement:
Quote:
The ISI official told the BBC's Owen Bennett-Jones in Islamabad that the compound in Abbottabad, just 100km (62 miles) from the capital, was raided when under construction in 2003. It was believed an al-Qaeda operative, Abu Faraj al-Libi, was there. But since then "the compound was not on our radar, it is an embarrassment for the ISI", the official said. "We're good, but we're not God."
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13268517
Abu Faraj al-Libi was detained in Mardan, Pakistan in 2005, in a joint operation and is in Guantanamo Bay, from:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abu_Faraj_al-Libbi
When you are pursuing a fugitive any residence linked to him and his close associates should remain on the radar, if only for reference purposes and was this information shared in 2003?
Pakistani official statement
Worth capturing here and has some noteworthy passages:http://www.mofa.gov.pk/Press_Release...May/PR_152.htm
Like:
Quote:
Abbottabad and the surrounding areas have been under sharp focus of intelligence agencies since 2003 resulting in highly technical operation by ISI which led to the arrest of high value Al Qaeda target in 2004. As far as the target compound is concerned, ISI had been sharing information with CIA and other friendly intelligence agencies since 2009. The intelligence flow indicating some foreigners in the surroundings of Abbottabad, continued till mid April 2011. It is important to highlight that taking advantage of much superior technological assets...There has been a lot of discussion about the nature of the targeted compound, particularly its high walls and its vicinity to the areas housing Pakistan Army elements. It needs to be appreciated that many houses occupied by the affectees of operations in FATA / KPK, have high boundary walls, in line with their culture of privacy and security. Houses with such layout and structural details are not a rarity.
Bin Laden Arabic Editorial Roundup
Bin Laden Arabic Editorial Roundup
Entry Excerpt:
Bin Laden Arabic Editorial Roundup
Selected Excerpts Compiled by Scott Weiner, PhD Student
The George Washington University
Translated from Arabic
Continue on for the editorial roundup.
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OBL: Epic Fail and Legacy
OBL: Epic Fail and Legacy
Entry Excerpt:
Osama Bin Laden: Epic Fail? - Dr. David Betz at Kings of War:
"... On the other hand, I also agree with something Bruce Berkowitz wrote about Bin Laden years ago in his book
The New Face of War: ‘History will not portray Osama bin Laden as a mere terrorist, rather instructors at West Point and Annapolis will cite him as one of the first military commanders to use a new kind of combat organization in a successful operation.’ There’s no contradiction here; Bin Laden joins a long list of military innovators who fought in lost causes. The advantage of being first is often fleeting and I think, hope earnestly, that that is what is happening here ..."
FPRI Perspectives on bin Laden's Demise - Foreign Policy Research Institute:
The world is better off without Osama bin Laden. But his demise does not mean the end of terrorism. What is bin Laden’s legacy, and what will Al Qaeda and its affiliates do in the post-bin Laden era? We asked two Senior Fellows of FPRI to comment on these questions – Lawrence Husick and Barak Mendelsohn.
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The Compound factor Part 6 (Life inside)
Slowly some more details are appearing, much of it appears to be from asking the locals and I expect some speculation:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13266944
I liked these snippets:
Quote:
..neighbours say the "Osama entourage" passed themselves off as gold merchants...all observers are united is that the women were rarely seen. Most people assumed that this is because they were Pashtun, and they tend to observe strict purdah.
Slightly more local 'colour" on:http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011...den-death-raid
Note the nearest neighbour's house was occupied by a Pakistani Army major.
You judge how accurate this is.
The Compound factor Part 7
I don't recall seeing this and just found it on the BBC's running log:
Quote:
1056: A crucial clue that led the US to Bin Laden was the moment his courier switched on his mobile phone outside the compound, says the BBC's Gordon Corera. "The courier was the key. First of all they had his 'nom de guerre', then they had to identify him, and then from a phonecall last year they tracked him to this particular compound. That led to the surveillance. But even when the US went in they weren't 100% sure Bin Laden was in there."
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698
In Post 35 I stated:
Quote:
...with no electronic signature too..
If the report is true (anyone else seen similar?) then the courier made a mistake. Which reinforces my view - to avoid capture, never use a mobile phone.
The Compound factor Part 8 (Ownership)
In answer to the questions here about the land / house ownership the BBC running log has:
Quote:
1524: A doctor who sold a piece of the land in Abbottabad where Osama Bin Laden's compound was built has said the Pakistani buyer did not seem to be a militant. "He was a very simple, modest, humble type of man" who was "very interested" in buying the land for "an uncle", Dr Qazi Mahfooz Ul Haq told the Associated Press. Property records show Mohammad Arshad bought adjoining plots in four stages between 2004 and 2005 for $48,000. Neighbours said a man who called himself Arshad Khan was among those who lived there.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698
Abbottabad not the FATA = Pak Army Collusion...
Those who have been repeatedly warning about the Paks dangerous double games for years would feel vindicated except we can't believe our side is still trying to spin this to give the Paks a way to wiggle out from the enormous pile of cow dung they find themselves under.
Look...its high time to WAKE the h--l up. Read my previous posts on this site.
Wonder why the Pakistanis are sooooo quiet on this. THEY KNOW what's what. The Afghans do too. The only real demonstrations in support of UBL have been low level affairs in Multan (Punjab) and Quetta (TQC country). Not a peep anywhere else. Sure the Pak army/state may whip something up soon to change this glaring equation.
Let's deal with the obvious: Pakistan doesn't have a military. Rather, the miliatry has a state. It is a POLICE state. It makes its business to know what is going on, especially in its cantonments and garrison towns. How do you think the retirees (including flag officers) in Bilal town would feel if the wool had been pulled over their fauji in uniform??? Aint gonna happen. Every building for miles around Kakul and Burn Hall (where their pampered kids attend boarding school), and especially ones with the kind of security features that UBL's overtly depicted would be closely investigated. Do you think the largest compound for miles with the nickname "Waziristan House" wouldn't be under scrutiny given the paranoid tendencies of the Paks???
Those still smoking the serious stuff need to quit...those engaged in wishful thinking need to face the cold hard reality: the Pak babus and fauji have been playing us for years at great peril to our national security. Our problems emanating from that region would have been long solved if the Paks had not been allowed to literally get away with murder (of its neighboring states' citizens (India and Afghanistan) and its own).
The Pushtuns in the FATA became the fall guys. Punjabis love it BTW. Don't believe the umma bull s--t. Another pile of dung that is....except in the West where they need each other due to low numbers.
The TTP is complex and run by meglomaniacal fools but their original agenda is all about defending their homeland from the brutalities of the Pak army.
BTW, remember Bugti in the wilds of Baluchistan and how they got to him?? Not to mention all the other assasinations. Oh and don't forget, KSM was also ensconced (comfortably) in the Pindi cantonment in the home of a Pak officer no less when he was captured.
But ask yourselves an important question: why on earth would they give VIP treatment to UBL for years?? Answer is external. Remember the Paks are the ultimate whores yet they arrogantly act like they are our equals!! It is this very hubris that was (amen Seal Team Six) their undoing and will continue to be their undoing. They think they are the best, the smartest and that is the pompous basta--s undoing. Now must caveat all this and say that there certainly are individual officers of the old (British) school mold but they have been marginalized and you have the johnny come latelys from the mohallas like Kayani. All so democratic but you have to wonder about pedigree...this aint the West folks.
Signing off: for the sake of pondering the "what if indeed..." as in UBL really built/funded this compound under the very noses of the army. Well then he had the biggest cojones on the block...no the region!The way he hid behind his woman's shalwar, however, suggests otherwise. He had ..... ones.
Can't help thinking about the Egyptian MB # 2...always thought he was in Mohmand/Bajaur/Kunar country near his in-laws kin. But it is time to check out all the garrison towns and be prepared to use the Seals again.
Navy SEAL Dog Killed Osama
Well maybe they didn't kill him but they were on the mission and they are not even eligible for any kind of award:p Link below.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=83-SZNnXPF0