Russian state power in the UK?
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Originally Posted by
OUTLAW 09
While this is not Russian hacking, propaganda and or disinformation it fits nicely into Russian Intelligence Service "active measures"...
"Revealed: Explosive Evidence Of A Russian Assassination On British Soil"
I have now read the first BuzzFeed article on murders in the UK with Russian links and found this passage was a useful summary for British action or inaction:
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The core reason British authorities have turned a blind eye, a current senior national security adviser to the British government told BuzzFeed News, is fear. Ministers, he said, were not prepared to take the “political risk of dealing firmly and effectively in whatever way with the activities of the Russian state and Russian-organised crime in the UK” because the Kremlin could inflict massive harm on Britain by unleashing cyberattacks, destabilising the economy, or mobilising elements of Britain’s large Russian population to “cause disruption”. Deep law enforcement funding cuts mean “our capabilities are very weak”, he said. It was also impossible to rule out the risk of “general war with Russia” in the current climate, he said, and “if it were to happen it would happen very, very rapidly, and we would be entirely unprepared”. As a result, he concluded, ministers “desperately don’t want to antagonise the Russians” and senior figures in government had told him bluntly that there was “no political appetite to deal with the Russian Federation.
A strange explanation and totally ignores the UK's survival after the Litvenenko murder in London, with Polonium in 2006 and the rupture of official state-to-state relations.Yes there is a potential threat to the UK from Russian capabilities, but a "general war"?
As for the Russian population in the UK could 'cause disruption', really they are going to sell up and move? Leaving behind assets, schools and the comforts of Surrey. After all many are here to escape Russia and for reasons - that are obscure - get UK passports quickly.
Now there is HMG's inactivity on the "dirty" money from Russia; PM Cameron made a speech, in July 2015 on "cleaning up" London's property market and nothing then happened. Perhaps the influx of billions kept the post-crash property market was a policy consideration?
It does remind me of a discussion at a conference a few years ago when a retired Whitehall 'mandarin' explained that "Londonistan" was the result of low-level decisions, not those made at senior levels, let alone by politicians. An explanation that could be plausible, even when several European nations (France & Italy notably) expressed at a very senior level their concerns and the presence of many who were wanted for terrorist crimes - who were declined to extradite.
Would all these items reach policy makers, let alone elected politicians?
Relevent to your interest in this thread
Ex-GRU officer 'critical' after UK incident
A developing story after ex-GRU Colonel Sergei Skripal, 66yrs, and his daughter Yulia, in her 30s, are critically ill in hospital after being found unconscious in Salisbury, Wiltshire. He was jailed for 13 years by Russia in 2006, convicted of passing the identities of agents working undercover in Europe to the UK's Secret Intelligence Service, MI6. In July 2010, he was one of four prisoners released by Moscow in exchange for 10 Russian spies arrested by the FBI as part of a swap. He was later flown to the UK.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43303651
There is speculation that their collapse in public was caused by an unknown substance; three emergency responders had mild symptoms.
For a comprehensive review Shashank Joshi, of RUSI has an article and BLUF:
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Russia is happy to use assassination to satisfy political ends; Western countries have been insufficiently robust in the face of Russian provocation; If Russia poisoned Sergei Skripal, the attack represents a significant escalation
Link:https://capx.co/russia-sees-murder-a...litical-lever/
Mark Galeotti, a SME, has a commentary and here is a taster:
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It seems to reflect a breakdown in the old etiquette of espionage, not only foreshadowing an even more vicious "shadow war" to come, but also challenging Western states to come up with new ways to respond to and deter these kinds of outrages.
Link:https://themoscowtimes.com/articles/former-russian-spook-incident-suggests-the-spy-rules-are-breaking-op-ed-60722?
The main thread on Russian intelligence operations has a two posts (47 & 48) on previous allegations, notably by BuzzFeed that the UK officially was not prepared to "take on" Russia over a series of unexplained deaths.
Link:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...t=14375&page=3
Westminster wakes up: he's not the first to be attacked
From the BBC and finally the 2017 Buzzfeed reports gain traction:
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During the urgent question in the Commons, Labour's Yvette Cooper raised
reports by BuzzFeed that 14 deaths in the UK had been linked to Russia by US spy agencies.
Ms Cooper, chairwoman of the Home Affairs select committee, asked Mr Johnson and the home secretary to order the National Crime Agency to urgently review the cases.
Mr Johnson said there were "a number of deeply troubling cases" and he would "certainly have that discussion with the home secretary".
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43312625
Reuters: Britain sends specialist troops to city where Russian double agent poisoned
Selected Excerpts:
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Britain deployed specialist troops on Friday to remove potentially contaminated objects from the English city where a Russian former double agent and his daughter were poisoned with a nerve agent. About 180 troops including some with chemical expertise have been sent to the city to remove ambulances and other vehicles involved in the incident and other objects, Britain’s ministry of defense and police said...
Health chiefs have said there is a low risk to the wider public from the nerve agent used against the Skripals, who police said were deliberately targeted with the rare toxin. They said experts had identified the substance, which will help determine the source, but did not name it publicly...
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov dismissed Britain’s warnings of retaliation were propaganda and not serious.
Update: May calls attack "unlawful use of force"
Breaking
Prime Minister May:
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If Russia doesn't respond satisfactorily, then the government will consider attack "unlawful use of force" against UK.
For context
Defence Secretary Williamson:
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Russia's being assertive, Russia's being more aggressive, and we have to change the way that we deal with it because we can't be in a situation in these areas of conflict where we are being pushed around by another nation.
Foreign Secretary Johnson:
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But if, and it's still a big if, it turns out this is the agency of another state attempting to kill people on UK soil then of course the UK will respond robustly.
Home Secretary Rudd:
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There will come a time for attribution and there will be, then, consequences and there will be further information that follows...The use of a nerve agent on UK soil is a brazen and reckless act. This was attempted murder in the most cruel and public way. People are right to want to know who to hold to account. We are committed to doing all we can to bring the perpetrators to justice - whoever they are and wherever they may be.
Member of Parliament Chris Tugendhat:
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The first duty of government is to protect the British people - I think using nerve agents on British streets really does demand a response.
Prime Minister May's Remarks
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It is now clear that Mr. Skripal and his daughter were poisoned with a military-grade nerve agent of a type developed by Russia...The government has concluded that it is highly likely that Russia was responsible for the act against Sergei and Yulia Skripal...Should there be no credible response, we will conclude that this action amounts to an unlawful use of force by the Russian state against the United Kingdom, and I will come back to this House and set out the full range of measures we will take in response...We shall not tolerate such a brazen act to murder innocent civilians on our soil.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/12/w...poisoning.html
Novichok: the deadly story behind the nerve agent in Sergei Skripal spy attack
I am familiar with the views of Alastair Hay, Professor (Emeritus) of Environmental Toxicology, University of Leeds; whose slim bio states:
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He is a member of the Advisory Board on Education and Outreach of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons and Chairman of the UK Chemical Weapons Convention Advisory Committee.
His commentary ends with:
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Nerve agents are grotesque weapons and their use against civilians is a deeply disturbing trend. But in the weeks to come, there will have to be a dispassionate review of the evidence. And as the spat between Russia, and the UK and its allies worsens, cool heads will be needed. Amid all this frenetic activity, however, we must not forget the three victims – and wish them a swift recovery. After all, they are the ones paying the heaviest price.
Link:https://theconversation.com/novichok-the-deadly-story-behind-the-nerve-agent-in-sergei-skripal-spy-attack-93562?
Meantime the incident has retreated from the media foreground here, I leave aside the political fracas over whether Jeremy Corbyn is 'fit and proper' person to possibly become Prime Minister. We have the OPCW involved, some odd political statements that there is evidence aplenty it is the Russian state's responsibility and a criminal investigation.
The UK and Russia: What is to be Done?
An unusual commentary via RUSI, by:
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The author is a senior former British intelligence official who has chosen to write this article anonymously to articulate unhindered views.
Link:https://rusi.org/commentary/uk-and-russia-what-be-done
It opens with:
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As Lenin once quipped at a key turning moment in his revolution, chto delat? (What is to be done?). That is precisely the question facing the UK after the attempted assassination in Salisbury of Sergei Skripal and his daughter, Yulia
The last paragraph:
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The actions proposed here against the Russian intelligence presence may not be the most dramatic suggestions. But the UK’s response must acknowledge that British–Russian relations are not just some degrees worse than hitherto. For Russia under Putin has become not just a disappointing partner or a part-nuisance; it is now hostile, and Whitehall needs to adopt a policy to accept that.
Doubts about the Salisbury nerve agent attack
Today there has been a flurry of reports, all of which appear to cast doubt on the official version. In part as ministers and others referred to 'evidence' when it would have been wiser to say 'assessment' or 'intelligence'.
This via the NYT on March 29th via Twitter and not in the UK media:
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Sergei Skripal's door is being removed from his Salisbury home, hours after police say he was exposed to nerve agent there....(From Shashank Joshi, of RUSI) 25 days after the poisoning.
Here is a headline today from the conservative Daily Telegraph:
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Salisbury nerve agent 'probably state made' but Porton Down scientists unable to say it came from Russia
Gary Aitkenhead, the chief executive of the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL) at Porton Down, said that:
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We were able to identify it as novichok, to identify that it was a military-grade nerve agent. We have not verified the precise source, but we provided the scientific information to the government who have then used a number of other sources to piece together the conclusions that they have come to. It is our job to provide the scientific evidence that identifies what the particular nerve agent is, we identified that it was from this family and that it is a military grade nerve agent, but it is not our job to then say where that actually was manufactured.
Link:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...e-nerve-agent/
A dissident voice on Open Democracy (which leans to the left IMHO):
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It is difficult to obtain 100% proof in cases such as the Sergey Skripal poisoning. But that doesn't mean we shouldn't demand as much evidence — from our politicians and law enforcement — as possible.
Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/od-rus...se-is-lacking?
A more detailed analysis comes from a group of academics who watch propaganda and the media; one - not one of the three authors - of whom I have heard in person who would never be sympathetic to a Conservative government here. A key point made:
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The UK government’s declared case therefore rests only on subjective judgements of “intent and motive”, which are open to question.
Link:http://syriapropagandamedia.org/working-papers/update-to-briefing-note-doubts-about-novichoks
Skripal Case Descends into a Propaganda War: a German article
A good overview and some hints at what the UK has told its allies. A "taster" passage:
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For weeks, the Russians have been hammering away at weaknesses in the British argumentation and now, that strategy has begun to show at least some results. If the British don't release additional details or evidence, there is a danger that the Skripal case will become a matter of faith rather than of fact.
Link:http://www.spiegel.de/international/...a-1201573.html
Novichok returns: one dead, one critical
In so far unexplained circumstances two adults had contact with Novichok, either in Salisbury or a nearby village; after four days the media broadcast the story. One of them, a woman has now died.
An acknowledged SME, Alistair Hay, has a short article; he tries to answer this:
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So what do we know about Novichok and how long it remains in the environment? Regrettably, very little. There is insufficient scientific data to be certain about the time it takes for this chemical to degrade and for the threat it poses to end.
Link:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-44778697
The second article is partly from a public meeting held to reassure the local population. One must wonder if this was successful:
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The nerve agent that killed a Wiltshire woman could last for 50 years if it remains in a container, Britain’s top counter-terrorism officer has said.
Link:https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jul/10/nerve-agent-poisoning-inquiry-spreads-to-swindon-car-seized-dawn-sturgess?
Sergei Skripal and the Russian disinformation game
Added as an update as the police investigation moves along; with huge dependence on trawling through CCTV and the identification of to Russian GRU named suspects:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45421445
The disinformation aspect:https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45454142
Skripal Suspects Confirmed as GRU Operatives: Prior European Operations Disclosed
Bellingcat adds to the evidence that the two recently named suspects are GRU operatives. Fascinating that such open source information can be assembled in these circumstances.
Link to Part One:https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-a...rity-services/
Link to Part Two:https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-a...ons-disclosed/
Skripal 'hitman' unmasked as GRU colonel : Bellingcat strike again!
Odd that Sky News do not credit Bellingcat:
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Bellingcat and its investigative partner The Insider – Russia have established conclusively the identity of one of the suspects in the poisoning of Sergey and Yulia Skripal, and in the homicide of British citizen Dawn Sturgess.
Curiously bellingcat use sources familiar with the GRU and so I'd take this with a "pinch of salt":
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The source further surmised that to send a highly decorated colonel back to a field job would be highly extraordinary, and would imply that “the job was ordered at the highest level.”
Link:https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-a...toliy-chepiga/
There's also this - which credits Bellingcat:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...sias-highest/?
Russia cyber-plots: US, UK and Netherlands allege hacking
A startling development this morning when the Dutch military intelligence agency (AVID) held a press conference on the action taken in 2017 to expel four accredited diplomats - who were GRU -whose trade craft to say the least was lacking.
(Added) The AVID briefing slides (x35):https://t.co/UUD5CvmJZn
The US DoJ has followed on with indictments.
There are different, detailed reports in the UK:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45746837 and https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...l-weapons-body
Skripal 'hitman' unmasked as GRU colonel : Bellingcat strike again and again
Yes again, the second suspect in the Salisbury poisoning case was a doctor and highly decorated Russian military intelligence officer. Incredible that so much Russian information online can be accessed, this includes via 'The Dark Net'.
Bellingcat:https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-a...n-hero-russia/
BBC News:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45801154
A Russian investigative site:https://citeam.org/whats-in-a-number-how-love-for-expensive-cars-and-number-plates-revealed-the-second-skripal-suspects-indentity/
What can we learn from Bellingcat?
An exploration of Bellingcat in 'The Spectator' alas behind a paywall, which considers the allegations made it is a servant of the UK / US agencies. It ends with this:
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The real secret of Bellingcat is that they have stumbled upon a disturbing truth: that it has become impossible to tell analogue lies in a digital world. In an age where almost all personal data is searchable and every event photographed, the most secret information is often hiding in plain sight. All you need to know is where to look for it — even if that means delving into the internet’s darkest corners.
Link:https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/10/...spy-agencies/?
The Skripal Files: the first book reviewed
Linked is a lengthy review of two books by Dr. Rob Dover, one of which is Mark Urban's book 'The Skripal Files'; the author is a BBC journalist whose focus is military-strategic. The review starts on pg.4 and onto pg.6 with:
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The Skripal Files is the first monograph-length response to the poisonings of Skripal and his daughter in March 2018 and has beaten both other journalists and academics – who might be focusing on peer review journals – into press. It has substance, too. Indeed, the key added value of the book is ten hours of interview evidence that Urban conducted with Skripal in the summer of 2017: this is an entirely novel contribution to our understanding of this man, of the motivations for defection laid bare, and indeed – inadvertently – to our understanding of why the GRU may have taken such strong action against a man who had been convicted and then swapped (which conventionally would mean absolved from any further punishment).
Link and click on the bottom icon:http://www.ccw.ox.ac.uk/blog/2018/11...y-robert-dover
Will they forgive me? No’: ex-Soviet spy Viktor Suvorov speaks out
A 'long read' and of interest, even if he defected long ago, in 1978 after eight years in the GRU. The article is sub-titled:
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Defections from Moscow’s most powerful spy agency are so rare, there are believed to be just two living examples. One is Sergei Skripal, who almost died this year. The other talks
Link:https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...iktor-suvorov?
“Quis custodiet ipsos interfectores?” Who watches the killers?
From an unknown author via Twitter, who explains his purpose:
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And for my purposes, I’m only concerned with the answer to one very specific variation of that question: Who watches the killers (and other members) of the Main [Intelligence] Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (GRU)?In Russia, it turns out it’s a pretty straightforward answer: the Directorate of Military Counterintelligence of the Department of Military Counterintelligence (UVKR) of the Counterintelligence Service of the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation (FSB).
Link:https://medium.com/@horkos/quis-cust...s-22cbccfc5ac0
"Honey trap" works to snare Estonian soldier