Some insight on a small war
Thanks to a "tweet" from a lurker:
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In classified protests to a United Nations watchdog that have never been disclosed till now, Pakistan has accused Indian soldiers of involvement in the torture and decapitation of at least 12 Pakistani soldiers in cross-Line of Control raids since 1998, as well as the massacre of 29 civilians......Ever since 9/11,” a senior Pakistan army officer told The Hindu, “we have sought to downplay these incidents, aware that a public backlash [could] push us into a situation we cannot afford on the LoC.
Link:http://www.thehindu.com/news/nationa...cle4358199.ece
Some fascinating comments on communication within each country, best of all some statistics:
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Pakistan argues that India’s own figures show a sharp decline in operations by jihadists in Jammu and Kashmir. Last year, according to the Indian government, 72 terrorists, 24 civilians and 15 security personnel, including police, were killed in terrorist violence in the State — lower, in total, than the 521 murders recorded in Delhi alone. In 2011, the figures were, respectively, 100, 40 and 33; in 2010, 232, 164 and 69.
Will the militants 'pivot' east?
Stephen Tankel, a regional analyst and LeT expert, provides insight into a possible pivot to Kashmir by extremists after Afghanistan:http://warontherocks.com/2013/07/pak...wn-pivot-east/
A "dirty" war tests restraint
An interesting backgrounder and rightly observes can the new Pakistani government and an Indian government heading to the ballot box exercise restraint:http://www.firstpost.com/india/exclu...h-1014081.html
You’re not a terrorist for life
Another report on returning militants, this one in the NYT and has some extra details, plus how one returnee appears to have been compromised and freed by the courts:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/07/wo...pagewanted=all
The compromised militant's words:
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You’re not a terrorist for life...It’s very possible that you will change your mind
More police, less soldiers
Within an article on scaling down the military presence in Kashmir and placing the emphasis on the police are several facts, here are some:
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The principal reason to consider scaling back the Army’s counter-insurgency presence in Kashmir is simple: there isn’t an insurgency to be fought. Ever since the 2001-2002 near-war between India and Pakistan, levels of violence in the State have fallen steadily. In 2001, as many as 1,067 civilians, 590 security forces personnel, and 2,850 terrorists were killed in fighting. The numbers fell in 2003 to 658 civilians, 338 security forces and 1,546 terrorists. Last year’s numbers, the authoritative South Asia Terrorism Portal records, were 20 civilians, 61 security forces and 100 terrorists.
In population-adjusted terms, the insurgency in J&K cost 1.51 lives per 100,000 persons of its population, lower than the homicide rate in Delhi or Haryana. The State’s total firearms fatalities were well below those in Uttar Pradesh (1,575 in 2012) or Bihar (681) or even West Bengal (269).
Link:http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead...le5597916.ece?
Zeal for insurgency wanes among former Kashmir militants
One of the BBC's reporters has been to Azad Kashmir Pakistan-administered) and reports:
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Pakistani army chief Raheel Sharif's recent statement that "Pakistan and Kashmir are inseparable" has added to tensions between India and Pakistan. The two nuclear-armed neighbours each claim Kashmir in its entirety, and occupy different parts of it. But as the BBC's M Ilyas Khan discovered on a recent visit to Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistani-administered Kashmir and the base camp for the insurgency, all is unusually quiet.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-33359800
The "devils in the detail":Location, timing and method
A detailed article by Shashank Joshi (RUSI) via the Australian Lowy Institute's email briefing:
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On 27 July, three (Kashmiri) militants crossed from Pakistan into the Indian state of Punjab,
according to GPS sets they were carrying. They planted five IEDs on a railway track, targeted bus passengers and holed up in a police station in Gurdaspur 20km from the border, eventually killing seven Indians. The attackers were themselves killed by local police after a day's siege.
Link:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/...d-method.aspx?
India and Pakistan: the long view
a longish article, but covers a lot (I think, obviously)
http://brownpundits.blogspot.com/201...long-view.html
Non-lethal force, more PR for the insurgents
Insight into one aspect of the disorder in Kashmir via Katoh's comment on a SWJ article, not on Kashmir:
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Lately in the militancy affected Kashmir Valley in India there was a wave of unrest post the killing of a 22 year old militant commander who had risen to fame on account of his good looks, ISIS style of videographed threat messages (given without masking his face) and his adroit use of social media.
The police forces in Kashmir used Pellet guns to quell the unrest since protests in Kashmir very quickly and often assume a hue of deadly violence. Use of these guns had been introduced in 2010 to reduce the fatalities among rioting supporters of militants.
However, this non lethal weapon resulted in a number of eye injuries on account of the large crowds on the streets including bystanders. Human nature being what it is, a dead rioter goes out of public gaze in a short time. If the number of fatalities is large then the media does not even publicise names. However young people sans their previous malevolent disposition and lying on a hospital bed with bandages over one/both eyes/bloodshot eyes lead to an outpouring of pity.
Consequently the Pellet Gun which was introduced in Kashmir with good intentions got demonized by local politicians, NGOs and the media.
Link:http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art...egular-warfare
Keeping the "pot" bubbling: the hidden hand
The unrest in Kashmir this summer has been far greater than usual, notably the response to the death of a young, popular Kashmiri militant in July and often builds up before the annual UN General Assembly meeting.
An Indian think tank's research suggests deaths have dropped:https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CspBVQ1WAAAxfVc.jpg:large
See:http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countr...casualties.htm
Even before today's attack some suspected the Pakistani military have renewed the "militant" option:http://thediplomat.com/2016/08/pakis...irth-of-jihad/
Last night un-named "militants" upped the temperature, as the BBC reports in this backgrounder:
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Militants have attacked an army base in Indian-administered Kashmir, killing at least 17 soldiers, the army says.All four of the attackers were killed. Carrying guns and grenades they stormed a base in Uri, close to the Line of Control with Pakistan in a pre-dawn ambush.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-37399969
India's strategic restraint on Kashmir
An excellent explanation of the current crisis by Shashank Joshi, via the Australian blog Lowy Interpreter:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/...n-Kashmir.aspx
Point to note:
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The Uri attack killed 18 soldiers, but this has to be understood in the context of the death of 135 members of Indian security forces this year alone, including 64 in Kashmir.
Across the aisle: Kashmir is sliding into disaster
Kashmir has been "bubbling along" for awhile, with occasional reports in the media I use, so thanks to Twitter for the pointer to this commentary by a former Indian Home Minister; which is sub-titled:
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The writing on the wall is clear. The alienation of the people of the Kashmir Valley is nearly complete. We are on the brink of losing Kashmir.
He writes:
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he writing on the wall is clear. The alienation of the people of the Kashmir Valley is nearly complete. We are on the brink of losing Kashmir. We cannot retrieve the situation through a ‘muscular’ policy — tough talk by ministers, dire warnings from the Army Chief, deploying more troops or killing more protesters.
Link:http://indianexpress.com/article/opi...aster-4614675/
A "lurker" added:
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The assessment is correct. The Hindu Central government's only aim is to suppress Muslims and they feel that strong arm tactics will solve the Valley problem. But the situation is explosive. Pakistan is very happy that we are creating our own problems.
Should We Talk to the "Stone Throwers" in the Valley?
An Indian SME commentary on the situation in Kashmir and the apparent decision by the Indian national government to:
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...adapt the “strong arm strategy” of the Israeli government of ignoring the Palestinians since 2001.
(Later) All these would indicate that blindly following the Israeli strategy as our counter-terrorist tactics would be totally inadvisable.
Link:http://www.thecitizen.in/index.php/N...-in-the-Valley
Peace on Earth, Goodwill to man, somethingsomething
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At least four Indian soldiers were killed Saturday in Pakistani firing along the highly militarized de facto border that divides the disputed region of Kashmir between the nuclear-armed rivals, Indian officials said.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/...shmir-51967358
IS about to open a new branch in Kashmir
Via a Twitter account @Minalami for a Jihadism specialist and Editorial Lead/team manager @ BBC Monitoring:
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Online accounts affiliated with so-called Islamic State (IS) have shared a video showing a pledge of allegiance to the group made by “mujahidin in Kashmir”, possibly paving the way for an IS declaration of a new branch there.
There are a dozen tweets giving more details.
Also covered in this Israeli online publication:http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/...er-21-27-2017/
An Idea or a Threat? Islamic State Jammu & Kashmir
Almost a Part Two to the above post; this time from CTC @ West Point and part of the conclusion:
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It currently remains to be seen if the ISJK morphs into something larger than an idea or whether it simply remains an online propaganda channel. The likelihood that ISJK inspires a sufficiently large number of young Kashmiris to stimulate an entire new wave of jihad in Jammu and Kashmir seems unlikely, at least in the short term. The real threat lies in ISJK effectively radicalizing Kashmiri youth via its social media campaign and coordinating activity through digital networks, which can give way to heightened terrorism, extreme tactics, and sectarian attacks.
Link:https://ctc.usma.edu/idea-threat-isl...jammu-kashmir/
One must wonder how Pakistan will respond to such a development, given that ISJK is reportedly anti-Pakistani. Would Pakistan encourage, if not direct, the existing Kashmiri groups to violently respond to the new group?
Watch and wait for the likes of us.
Blind To The Valley Central government seems to be misreading the crisis in Kashmir
An Indian SME commentary that ends with:
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The Modi government should listen to professional advice in formulating its Kashmir policy. The results of wrong policies are borne by the security forces, not to mention the Valley public. In August 2016, Northern Army Commander, Lt. General D S Hooda, recommended that all including separatists and student protestors should sit down and see if we can find an end. Even DGP (J&K), S P Vaid, told a prominent weekly on April 12, 2018 that talks, including with neighbour Pakistan, was the only solution to Kashmir issue.
Missed from the article due to space was this and provided by the author:
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It is the global experience that security forces get demoralized if they are asked to face prolonged insurgency during which they are forced at act against their own citizens.
Link:http://indianexpress.com/article/opi...alley-5153288/
Kashmir’s War Gets Smaller, Dirtier and More Intimate
A NYT article reflecting time on the ground, even if clearly much of it with Indian security forces. One small passage, the context being the funeral of a dead militant - the focus of the article:
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One woman who identified herself as a separatist leader looked out at the sea of mourners and gravely smiled.“We are winning,” she said. “These bodies are our assets.”
Link:https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/01/w...pakistan.html?
India -v- Pakistan: has the "fuse" been lit after 40 dead policemen?
I did spot a BBC headline, but was distracted from reading. So thanks to Shashank Joshi's Twitter (ex-RUSI, now The Economist's defence correspondent) for a reminder how dangerous the situation is.
So what happened? This is a wide-ranging report that starts with:
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Over 40 jawans of the paramilitary Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF)
were killed on Thursday when a suicide bomber rammed his explosives-laden SUV into the CRPF convoy on the Srinagar-Jammu highway. In terms of casualties, this was probably the deadliest attack by a terror group against Indian security forces in Kashmir.Pakistan-based JeM took responsibility for the attack in a statement to a local news agency in Kashmir. The group also identified the suicide bomber as a resident of Kashmir’s Pulwama.
Link:https://thewire.in/diplomacy/pulwama...mohammed/amp/?
A reminder of JeM's past:
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Jaish-e-Mohammed has carried out a series of terror strikes since then, including one in December 2001, that almost led to war. JeM terrorists attacked India’s Parliament and the Vajpayee government mobilized the Indian army, which led to a nine-month standoff.
Link:https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/02/ar...hmir-car-bomb/
The BBC has a wide-ranging report, which includes:
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Indian media reports said that at about 15:15 local time (09:45 GMT) a car carrying between 300 and 350kg (660-770lb) of explosives struck a convoy of about 70 vehicles that was carrying about 2,500 troops to the Kashmir Valley.
Link:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-47240660
Needless to say Pakistan denies any involvement, but IMHO must be dismayed at the level of diplomatic support for India.
The main thread for Kashmir is:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?17280-Kashmir-a-simmering-sometimes-brutal-small-war/page5
Kashmir Terrorist Attack Could Start a Major War
https://nationalinterest.org/feature...ajor-war-45017
This Is How the Kashmir Terrorist Attack Could Start a Major War
The author lists a number reasons this particular attack could escalate, ranging from President Trump's reliance on Pakistan to reach a peace agreement with the Taliban and the upcoming elections in India combined with public anger in India demanding a response. The author thinks Pakistan is relying too much on its nuclear deterrent.
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What makes the situation very dangerous is that while both countries are nuclear powers, there is a marked imbalance in their conventional military capacity that is tilted in India’s favor. This is the major reason why Pakistan has refused to subscribe to the “no first use” nuclear doctrine thus introducing great uncertainty into the India-Pakistan conflict. Furthermore, unlike in India, nuclear weapons and delivery systems in Pakistan are under the control of the military top brass and the civilian government does not have any say on when and how they will be used.
This projected action-reaction dynamic can easily graduate to the nuclear level if Pakistan decides to take recourse to tactical nuclear weapons, which it has stockpiled, if it finds itself unable to withstand India’s conventional power. Once this happens, it is difficult to predict where the escalatory process will end.
One would hope that rational leaders would avoid escalating to nuclear war, but then again I have seen a lot of irrational decision making in S. Asia based more on emotion than reason. If it does escalate, we have to own our role in this situation, because we provided some degree of protection to Pakistan since 9/11 to facilitate our forever war in Afghanistan. Once again we were blinded by the tactical picture, so we couldn't see the strategic picture.
The end or the beginning?
An Indian news website report and note Shashank Joshi, of The Economist tweeted:
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So an airstrike not just in Pakistan-administered Kashmir but in undisputed Pakistani territory. A significant escalation
Link:https://www.firstpost.com/india/surg...e-6154391.html
Well India claims to have struck a JeM training base, which Pakistan denies:
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A top Indian minister said strikes targeted a training camp of the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) group in Balakot. Pakistan said the strikes hit an empty area but vowed to respond.
Link:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-4736671