Base diplomacy: the regional implications
Hat tip to WoTR for having an Indian analyst, from India, contribute this wide-ranging review of the impact of the PRC's base - being built - in Djibouti:
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Beijing’s new base in Djibouti marks the start of a longer-term enterprise aimed at embedding China into the geopolitics of the Indian Ocean.
There is a curious part on how should India react, even advocating a naval response in the Western Pacific.
Link:https://warontherocks.com/2017/08/ch...ons-for-india/
There are African aspects to the base, background maybe found on this thread:China's Expanding Role in Africa
"This is the biggest player in the history of the world.”
The title is from a short quote by the late Singaporean leader Lee Kwan Yew of China’s rise, in full it was:
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It is not possible to pretend that this is just another big player. This is the biggest player in the history of the world.
Now who said this?:
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Taking the long view, we simply cannot afford to leave China forever outside the family of nations, there to nurture its fantasies, cherish its hates and threaten its neighbours.
The BBC's China Editor has a profile of President Xi Jinping’s, where she concludes:
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Xi’s China has so far married great wealth with great repression. If he continues to cage his tigers, clean up his comrades and silence discordant voices, the existential questions may be for others. Not since Chairman Mao has China’s dream of greatness rested so heavily on one man.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/...ts_Chairman_Xi
China and the United States: destined for war?
An IISS event last month with Professor Graham Allison talking about his new book (published May 2017) and entitled 'China and the United States: destined for war?'. There is a recording to listen to (68 mins).
Link:http://www.iiss.org/en/events/arunde...d-for-war-3469
The book is 'Destined for War: Can America and China Escape the Thucydides Trap?' and on Amazon USA as a 'best seller', where the summary ends with:
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explains why Thucydides’s Trap is the best lens for understanding U.S.-China relations in the twenty-first century. Through uncanny historical parallels and war scenarios, he shows how close we are to the unthinkable. Yet, stressing that war is not inevitable, Allison also reveals how clashing powers have kept the peace in the past — and what painful steps the United States and China must take to avoid disaster today.
Link with 150 reviews and mainly 5*:https://www.amazon.com/Destined-War-...ydides+Trap%3F
1,700 Planes Ready for War: Everything You Need To Know About China's Air Force
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Roughly 33 percent of the PLAAF and PLANAF’s combat aircraft are old second-generation fighters of limited combat value against peer opponents, save perhaps in swarming attacks. Another 28 percent include strategic bombers and more capable but dated third-generation designs. Finally, 38 percent are fourth-generation fighters that can theoretically hold their own against peers like the F-15 and F-16. Stealth fighters account for 1 percent. However, the technical capabilities of aircraft are just half the story; at least as important are training, organizational doctrine and supporting assets ranging from satellite recon to air-refueling tankers, ground-based radars and airborne command posts.
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the...t-chinas-23901
China’s modern Silk Road hits political, financial hurdles
An AP article that starts with Pakistan and goes much further afield, e.g. Tanzania.
Link:https://apnews.com/0956dd7edd7344cfa...ancial-hurdles
I'll just leave this here...
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Chinese authorities have demolished a well-known Christian megachurch, inflaming long-standing tensions between religious groups and the Communist Party.
Witnesses and overseas activists said the paramilitary People's Armed Police used dynamite and excavators to destroy the Golden Lampstand Church, which has a congregation of more than 50,000, in the city of Linfen in Shaanxi province.
ChinaAid, a US-based Christian advocacy group, said local authorities planted explosives in an underground worship hall to demolish the building following, constructed with nearly $2.6m (£1.9m) in contributions from local worshippers in one of China's poorest regions.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a8156031.html
A gift that listened: the AU HQ building
Almost amusing, even if other nations also seek to learn, this Chinese gift may harm how African nations see China:
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In 2012, the Chinese government “graciously offered” African States a gift and constructed the African Union’s HQ in Addis Ababa. The act of soft diplomacy proved to be a rather self-serving maneuver to spy on the activities and discussions being conducted by leaders of the exclusive continental group.
Link:https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/201...s-addis-ababa/
(Added)
A BBC report that cites Kuang Weilin, the Chinese ambassador to the AU:
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Certainly, it will create problems for China-Africa relation.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-42861276
Chinese peacekeeping in Africa
A short article that concludes:
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While there may be more material drivers behind China’s increased involvement in peacekeeping in Africa, these two national narratives – that of the responsible great power and the leader of the developing world – have shaped how China develops its role within peacekeeping, creating limitations to China’s actions. These narratives will therefore shape China’s role in peacekeeping in Africa in the future.
Link:https://sustainablesecurity.org/2018...ing-in-africa/
China's Belt and Road Initiative
https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas...-years-later-0
China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Five Years Later
This is balanced statement, with numerous implications. Much more in the article than what I'm focused on below.
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Politically, China is already benefitting from the BRI with individual countries and globally. Traditional partners like Pakistan, where BRI-related investments total roughly $62 billion, have become even closer. Chinese infrastructure loans have helped persuade some countries, including the Philippines and Cambodia, to reevaluate military or diplomatic ties with the United States. China is also forging ties with countries further west, particularly those in Central and Eastern Europe. China’s “16+1” framework brings together a diverse set of countries in the region, many of whom have little in common other than their interest in doing business with China. These and other developments suggest the BRI is producing political dividends.
Most SWJ readers understand the nexus of economic and security interests, but perhaps don't have visibility on the global scale of this challenge to U.S. and allied interests.
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Even more important to U.S. economic interests is the BRI’s longer-term impact on major global systems. Since World War II, the United States has played a leading role in creating, expanding, and defending open trade and financial systems. The United States has done this not merely out of goodwill, but also out of self-interest.
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A BRI that succeeds on China’s terms could revise these systems to reflect Chinese interests. Changes would be seen in supply chains for goods, from manufactured products to energy and other resources. China’s currency would become more widely used. Chinese technical standards, for everything from high-speed railway systems to wireless networks, would become more widely adopted, as would Chinese preferences for environmental and social safeguards. Collectively, these changes would push the United States away from its current position in the global economy and move China toward the center.
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A BRI that fails also has implications for U.S. economic interests.
The following assertion calls into question our ability to predict the future, and how fast things can change. Although we arguably did create a vacuum both economically and militarily.
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It is sobering to recall the U.S. position in Asia at the beginning of this century. In 2000, a bipartisan commission at the Harvard Kennedy School examined U.S. national interests and noted, “No country in East Asia, including China, appears capable of seriously challenging US leadership any time soon unless America, through neglect or indifference, were to create a vacuum.”24 Today, the U.S. position in Asia is considerably weaker.
Finally the recommendation.
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The BRI has all the marks of a difficult foreign policy challenge. It is a slow-moving development that will unfold in decades rather than days. It is functionally and geographically vast, spanning the responsibilities of many U.S. agencies. It requires grappling with both economics and security issues. It will be tempting to delay action and difficult to coordinate an effective response. Ultimately, the best U.S. response to the BRI is not a response at all, but a compelling U.S. economic vision, resourced strategically and sustained over time.
From a European "armchair"
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Originally Posted by
Bill Moore
China Has Big Plans to Win the Next War It Fights
Not entirely new....China may have big plans to win, but big plans can and do fail big also.
Bill,
Sometimes I enjoy RAND's product, this one failed my simple test. It is more alarmist than predictive. Plus as you neatly say 'Not entirely new'. From my faraway armchair I do wonder how the PLA can successfully adapt to win.
How many national armies do not have such plans and assumptions? The PLA is no different, although I would wager it is a far more conformist culture than most Western militaries in peacetime and possibly when at war or engaged in combat operations.
Yes the PLA may have studied waging war etc. Aided no doubt by the relatively large numbers studying openly abroad: a couple each year @ Oxford University CCW, a good number at Australian military colleges and a large number doing their PhD in the USA. How many wars or combat operations have the PLA been engaged in since Korea? Assisting North Vietnam, a border war with Vietnam, border clashes with the USSR, some UN ops and sometimes "hot".
China has a new friend: Vanuatu
This Sydney Morning Herald article's full title is: China eyes Vanuatu military base in plan with global ramifications.
It opens with:
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China has approached Vanuatu about building a permanent military presence in the South Pacific in a globally significant move that could see the rising superpower sail warships on Australia’s doorstep. Fairfax Media can reveal there have been preliminary discussions between the Chinese and Vanuatu governments about a military build-up in the island nation. While no formal proposals have been put to Vanuatu's government, senior security officials believe Beijing’s plans could culminate in a full military base.
Both governments deny this.
Link:https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fede...09-p4z8j9.html
The map of 'Bases and potential bases: China, US and India' is well different and spot the US base that is missing?
Australia has an old friend: Racist BS
The Vanuatu Daily Post's article's full title is: Want To Lead In The Pacific? Try Listening First
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The Chinese Bases folderol is just the latest chorus in a litany of Australian indifference to Pacific voices. Every time some tendentious prat opens their mouth and starts telling the Pacific that what’s good for Australia is obviously good for us, the entire region sighs.
That jolt you just felt was a collective eye roll that nearly tipped the island.
Can we get something clear? If you want us to listen to you, you’ve got to listen to us.
http://dailypost.vu/opinion/want-to-...35cb27275.html
never the twain shall meet
From the ASPI Strategist
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An international system is only effective if it’s seen as fair to the vast majority, including those who disagree with our point of view.
Not BS - https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/ru...alert-alarmed/
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China has become the most formidable challenge to Asia’s regional order, and to Australia’s stake in that order, since the days of Japanese imperialism.
(i.e. since the days of european colonialism)
BS - https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/wi...ed-order-asia/
and ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you meh
Australia ideal testing ground for China's influence - Global Times
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China may not like being lectured by Australia about politics, human rights or anything else. But Chinese policymakers need to recognize that there are equally strong opinions about key aspects of "Australian values" that will generate significant blowback if consciously or accidentally threatened.
Is one of these "Australian Values" white supremacy? Just asking 'cos I heard more racist nonsense in two weeks in Australia than in eighteen years in the US. Don't think it was malicious, sure was noticeable. Here's an explanation I got from someone, "when we call a chinky, "a chinky", it's not being racist, it's just what we call 'em."
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China's policymakers need to realize that it's not even necessary for claims about interference to be true, or any different in intent from the sorts of thing that every other country does for that matter, for them to create significant blowback.
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1098390.shtml
it seems of little use to talk to anyone, not just the countries mentioned in this article, that counts a disregard for the truth as a value
...
[anecdote] When I was working in Australia a guy came in and after the briefest exchange seemed to take an instant dislike to me. If I was the only one in the shop he'd generally leave and come back when there was someone else he could deal with. A while later I was out having a smoke and he drove up in his ute. There was a White Pride Worldwide sticker with the celtic cross on his bumper. I figured okay I'm half-chinese so it's an invasion thing.
A few weeks later White Pride guy is in the shop and this chinese guy walks in. White Pride guy sees him, breaks into a big smile and they hang around laughing and joking for about fifteen minutes then go get a sandwich. I asked the other guy in the shop, "What's up with White Pride guy?" He goes, "I't's your accent (eighteen years in the States). He thinks you're a septic (septic tank - yank). He doesn't like Americans."
The "flip side" of Chinese economic activity
Surely not as a Chinese company has purchased Greece's major commercial port, Piraeus and the Italians think there is a fraud:
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uropean Union and Italian authorities are investigating suspected wide-scale tax fraud by Chinese criminal gangs importing goods via Greece’s largest port of Piraeus, a trade gateway between China and Europe, officials said.
Link:https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu-...way-to-europe/
Australia’s real choice about China
An opinion piece by the Australian commentator, Hugh White, that opens with:
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Australia’s problem with China is bigger and simpler than we think, and thus harder to solve. It isn’t that Beijing doesn’t like Julie Bishop, or that it’s offended by our new political interference legislation, or that it’s building impressive new armed forces, or staking claims in the South China Sea. It’s that
China wants to replace the United States as the primary power in East Asia, and we don’t want that to happen. We want America to remain the primary power because we don’t want to live under China’s shadow.
Other nations in the region and beyond have to make choices; which the author writes as - near the end:
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....what price are we willing to pay to resist it, and how far are we prepared to go? Those choices must be based on a realistic assessment of China’s power and ambitions, and of the cost we will incur by opposing them.
Link:https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/au...e-about-china/
Tracking China’s “Little Blue Men”—A Comprehensive Maritime Militia Compendium
This popped up via Twitter thanks to a "lurker" and has yet to be read fully. I am sure this capability has appeared here before. The author's introduction:
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Rarely is a topic so little recognized and so little understood, yet so important and so amenable to research using Chinese-language open sources… To increase awareness and understanding of this important subject, here is a convenient compendium of major publications and other documents available on the matter thus far.
Link:http://www.andrewerickson.com/2018/06/the-complete-china-maritime-militia-bookshelf-fully-updated-just-now/?
IISS: Guardians of the Belt and Road
An un-read IISS blog article that is sub-titled:
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Chinese private security companies are going global to protect the country's assets and citizens, in the sometimes unstable countries linked to Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative.
Link:https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2018/08/guardians-belt-and-road?