An Outline of Kurdish Islamist Groups in Iraq
Jamestown Foundation, 17 Sep 07: An Outline of Kurdish Islamist Groups in Iraq
Quote:
A great number of Iraqi Kurdish Islamist groups, including militant Islamist movements, have emerged in the last 20 years. Despite the fact that politicized Islam never seemed to enjoy as much broad popularity in Iraqi Kurdistan as it has amongst some neighboring Arab populations, a number of small Kurdish Islamist groups keep multiplying, splintering and occasionally reuniting.
This study pays particular attention to links between various Iraqi Kurdish Islamist movements, their history, their transformation or splintering into new organizations, and the role of the non-Kurdish Iraqi Muslim Brotherhood in spawning these movements in the fi rst place. A historical “map-tree” of the movements is presented in order to better understand various groups’ roots and their relationships with other Islamist movements in Iraq. In some cases, the support of outside states and foreign Islamist organizations appears crucial to explaining what success political Islam in Iraqi Kurdistan has enjoyed.
Based on fi eldwork and personal interviews conducted in Iraq in 2003 and 2004, this study presents a signifi cant amount of never-before published details about these movements. The conclusion addresses possible strategies for containing radical Islamist movements, and the dilemmas inherent in constructing such strategies.....
Iran and (Iraqi) Kurdistan
A possible indicator of potential Iranian leverage over the KRG (and especially the PUK):
Quote:
SULEIMANIYYA: Iran's closure of its frontier with Iraq is costing the autonomous Kurdish region $1 million a day, a government minister said on Wednesday, as trucks remained stuck at the border.
...
Iran said on Monday it was closing its frontier with Iraq in protest at the detention last week of Iranian national Mahmudi Farhadi by US troops.
Full AFP story here. Reuters account here.
Waving a Red Flag in Front of Three (at least) Turkish Army Corps
Quote:
Originally Posted by
tequila
Much more likely a direct response to the killing of 15 Turkish soldiers last week.
The House resolution will make any U.S. request to Turkey much more expensive politically.
The PKK
waves the red flag. This will not be unnoticed in Turkey.
If some of the PKK are looking for a fight, they've come to the right place. I just can't imagine why they'd deliberately bait the Turks. Do they actually believe that they'll be better off under Turkish Army occupation?:confused: There are at least 140,000 Turks on the frontier, and another 120,000 behind them engaged in keeping a lid on the local populations. Some of the Turkish generals have been champing at the bit for half a year, and the General Staff reportedly completed planning back in late June or early July.
It seems that almost all of the players, on both sides, are trying to drive the Turkish Government to kick over the applecart, and see what happens. Be careful what you wish for...:(
PKK strategy and Turkish intervention
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Norfolk
If some of the PKK are looking for a fight, they've come to the right place. I just can't imagine why they'd deliberately bait the Turks. Do they actually believe that they'll be better off under Turkish Army occupation?
Yes, they may well think that: it would embroil Turkey in a messy political situation, drive a wedge in the always sensitive relationship between Ankara and the Kurdish Regional Government (and Ankara and Baghdad, and Ankara and Washington), give them easier targets, accentuate repression of Kurds in eastern Anatolia, undercut moderate Kurdish politicians in Turkey, and generally spur PKK recruitment (not only among Kurds in Turkey, but also others--there are a striking number of Iranian Kurds among PKK forces in northern Iraq).
Attacks intended to spur repression or overreaction are a common hallmark of insurgencies (or terrorism).
The downside for the PKK might be less Turkish intervention, but the PUK and especially KDP deciding that they had best deal with the issue themselves rather than risk the Turks having a go.
Do as I say not as I do???
Here's a DoD press release. I find the folllowing extract rather interesting
Quote:
The Defense Department sent Eric Edelman, undersecretary of defense for policy and former U.S. ambassador to Turkey, to explain the situation in Congress to his opposite number in the Turkish government. But the situation on the border with Iraq is potentially more serious, Morrell said.
. . .
He said the U.S. government is sympathetic to the fact that Turkey is suffering PKK terrorist attacks, but the best way to deal with this threat is through diplomatic means.
“We have urged the Turks to show restraint,” Morrell said. “We understand their frustration, we understand their anger, but we are urging them not to engage in cross-border operations.”
Part of America's expressed national strategy regarding terrorism is that it is better to fight the terrorists in some other country than to deal with them inside our own boundaries. However, we don't want the Turks using that same strategy. Hmmmm :confused:
Kurds and pay - Examining PKK financing
Quote:
Key Points
l PKK financing has shifted from state support to self-financing through diaspora funding and
drug trafficking.
l Some PKK financiers were arrested in Europe, but what seemed a larger operation in early
2007 has lost momentum.
l Turkey's incursion into Iraq has not ended the PKK's operations, and such military action
will need to be supported by efforts to fight the group's European financing if the threat
posed by the organisation is to be undermined in the medium term.
http://www.silkroadstudies.org/new/d...803JIR-PKK.pdf
6 dead in gun attack on U.S. Consulate in Turkey
From CBC.ca
Quote:
6 dead in gun attack on U.S. Consulate in Turkey
Last Updated: Wednesday, July 9, 2008 | 9:57 AM ET
CBC News
Four gunmen opened fire on police guarding the U.S. Consulate in Istanbul on Wednesday, sparking a battle that left six people dead, officials said.
Istanbul Gov. Muammer Guler confirmed that three police officers and three of the attackers were killed in the city in Turkey, while another police officer and a tow-truck driver were injured.
Police are now hunting for the fourth attacker who fled in a van, while forensics teams are examining a shotgun left on the grounds at the scene. Police estimated 60 bullets were fired over the course of the gunfight, which lasted several minutes.
More...
I hope this wasn't the PKK...
I'm a big fan of the Kurdish people and their cause; and the PKK keeps making them look bad...but the U.S. consulate? Not really the PKK's Modus Operendi; makes me think it wasn't them.
MEK to be removed from terror list?
I was watching the Mosaic: World News from the Middle East program from Link TV this morning (podcast available from iTunes). I nearly spit my Irish Coffee all over my heart-clogging breakfast when I saw this report: EU to Remove Iranian Opposition Group from Terror List (translated by Mosaic from Al Arabiya TV, UAE). More at al-Arabiya (English) here.
PMOI (People's Mujahideen of Iran) / MEK (Mujahideen-e-Khalq) Wiki
I don't know if it would be prudent to operationally leverage MEK against Iran anytime soon, but it sure would be nice to have that leverage available as a bargaining chip. If the EU takes them off the FTO list, then maybe we will as well? And then we would have the option of openly working with them?
From an earlier piece from Jamestown: "Iran's military will engage Kurdish separatists whenever encountered, in exchange for Turkey's cooperation against the Iranian Mujahideen-e-Khalq movement"
And this from a more recent report: "Iraq plans to close a camp for Iranian dissidents who used to cross into Iran to mount assassinations and sabotage - a decision that has sharpened political differences between Baghdad and Washington."
More recently:
Quote:
Iraq plans to extradite members of an Iranian armed opposition group who have "Iranian blood on their hands," Iraq's national security adviser said Friday during a visit to Tehran.
"Among the members of this group, some have the blood of Iraqi innocents on their hands (and) we will hand them over to Iraqi justice, and some who have Iranian blood on their hands we can hand over to Iran," said Muwafaq al-Rubaie.
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al-Arabiya
I wonder what the near-term fate of the MEK will be?
The latest news:
Quote:
"Iran said the European Union would be committing a "political" act and may worsen relations if it struck the exiled People's Mujahedeen of Iran from a blacklist of terrorist groups... The EU will decide whether to take the group off the terror list this week."
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Bloomberg
It seems that there was (and possibly still is) a view within our camp that MEK, while Iran's terrorist, could have been (and maybe still is) our freedom fighter. Given the possible cooperation between Turkey and Iran to crack down on "their" mutual terrorists, and the pressure now being exerted upon MEK by Iraq, it seems that this long, drawn-out issue is now approaching an endgame of some sort. Is this an ally whom we want? I guess, more relevant - is this a group whom the new administration is willing to associate with?
I'm sure the actual decider will be higher
but the guy I named is the likely public face -- and will definitely (or nominally) be in charge of the very long term owners of US interests in MEK.
True on the decisions versus speeches and the first few decisions do not impress me as much more than fluff to keep the base happy. My sensing is that we're going to see some not too smart Defense decisions. I generally chuckle a bit when I see really smart folks outsmart themselves but the potential for some bad damage in the military arena is worryingly present....
Not so sure about this one
The EU thing doesn't seem like too bad a move. That said following too quickly in step with that might be equivalent to too much at once.
Nothing wrong with thinking about it though:D