Ilyas Kashmiri's big mistake
A superb context comment for the drone hit that reportedly killed Ilyas Kashmiri and illustrates the importance of context - know the tribes!
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Kashmiri had only been in the district a few hours when he was killed in a targeted drone strike. Hardly surprising really; his very presence in South Waziristan was a threat to a 2007 peace agreement between the Ahmadzai Wazirs and the government under which the tribe agreed not to attack Pakistani forces or to allow foreign militants into their district. The Waziris had previously risen up against the Arabs and many Uzbeks from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan who had settled amongst them and who had become notorious for their cruelty. More than 200 Uzbeks were killed by the Waziris and the survivors were forced north, where they were given shelter by other Pashtun tribes.
As recently as March this year the nine clans of the Ahmadzai Waziris agreed to stick to the terms of the 2007 treaty.
Link:http://circlingthelionsden.blogspot....miri-much.html
Ilyas Kashmiri's is dead?
I am not sure he is dead, hence my use of reportedly and in the case of Rashid Rauf some, including his family, maintain he is not dead either.
Over-confidence springs to mind, belief in his host's motives being good - Pashtunwali does apply and being sure his movements were covert.
Trouble in Pakistan's Heartland
A short report that illustrates the problems Pakistanis face and sub-titled:
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Faisalabad, the industrial hub of Punjab, is ailing -- badly. And militant groups are reaping the benefits.
Then:
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This mix of anti-Americanism, religiosity, and agitation over the dire economic situation has found a receptive audience among unemployed youths residing in Faisalabad's industrial slums -- and Pakistan's traditional institutions are doing a poor job of responding to the threat.
Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...tland?page=0,0
The Haqqani network - the fountainhead of jihad?
Hat tip to the only UK-based blogsite on Afghanistan 'Circling the Lion's Den' by Nick Fielding:http://circlingthelionsden.blogspot.com/
For a pointer to a CTC report on the Haqqani network, yet to be read here:http://www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/u...-Final_Web.pdf
Which remarks:
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Positioned between two unstable states, and operating beyond their effective sovereignty, the Haqqani network has long been mistaken for a local actor with largely local concerns. It is vital that the policy community correct the course that has taken this erroneous assessment for granted and recognize the Haqqani network’s region of refuge for what it has always been – the fountainhead of jihad.
Understanding the Pak Army offensive in Kurram
Hat tip to Circling the Lion's Den for this pointer:
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Jeffrey Dressler at the Institute for the Study of War on the Pakistan Army's current offensive in Kurram in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) says that the insurgency in Afghanistan's Eastern region is likely to benefit from the action.
Which concludes:
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Dressler makes it clear that the Pakistani military has little interest in curbing militancy in the region. It is simply taking on those elements of the TTP that have turned on their former mentors, solely in order to strengthen the insurgency in Afghanistan.
Link:http://circlingthelionsden.blogspot....ensive-in.html
Link to the cited Dressler report:http://www.understandingwar.org/file...mOffensive.pdf
After the Taliban: Swat women on changing life
A short BBC News article based on two women in the Swat Valley:
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Swat in north-west Pakistan is still recovering from a period of militancy several years ago. Men and women deemed un-Islamic were killed by the Taliban and their bodies dumped on the street. Hundreds of girls schools were destroyed before the army ousted the militants in 2009. A local school girl and Swat's first woman to train as a lawyer told Nosheen Abbas how life is changing.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-14420886
A reminder too of women's role in COIN, which IMHO we often overlook.
Pak Taliban flexes its muscles in FATA
Hat tip to Circling the Lion's Den for this update:http://circlingthelionsden.blogspot....s-in-fata.html
Given the criticism of the Pakistani Army, here is a comment by the:
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.. head of the pro-government Amn Lashkar militia announced this week that he was closing down their centre in Shahukhel village in Hangu district due to non-cooperation from the security forces and the government. Nine members of the lashkar have been killed in the last year and 13 others injured. “The government had pledged to provide us with arms and ammunition but it could not deliver on its promise. We cannot continue battling the militants on our own,” said Salamat Khan Orakzai.
Pakistan's 'Wild West': Baluchistan
An IISS Strategic Comment 'Bad times in Baluchistan', which reminds us that Pakistan has some problems.
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In the past few months alone in Baluchistan, the death of a separatist leader and the discovery of the bullet-ridden corpses of many missing activists precipitated a general strike, while militants repeatedly blew up oil pipelines. Security-forces personnel and civilians were killed by landmines; and scores of ethnic Hazara Shia Muslims died in sectarian attacks. Taliban fighters also kidnapped two Swiss tourists, perpetrated a major suicide bombing in the provincial capital, Quetta..that killed 22...(the target being) Brig. Khurram Shahzad, the deputy head of the region's Frontier Corps.
Militant group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi has claimed responsibility for a recent series of deadly ambushes on Shia Hazara pilgrims - killing 14 in an attack on a minibus on 4 October, and 29 in the Mastung area of Quetta on 20 September. The group, also implicated in an attempt to assassinate Baluchistan's Chief Minister Nawab Aslam Rasiani in December 2010,
Here is a twist:
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Major opium-processing hubs lie in the same Chagai Hills region as Pakistan's nuclear-testing facilities.
Link:http://www.iiss.org/publications/str...n-baluchistan/
Pak military’s influence will continue to rise
An Indian commentary that opens with:
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t was pathetic to see Pakistan Interior Minister Rehman Malik thanking on 8 December the banned Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) for maintaining peace during Moharram, thus indicating the helplessness of his security machinery.
Then refers to a new report:
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the December 2011 special report from the US Institute of Peace, "Who Controls Pakistani Security Forces" by Shuja Nawaz (Atlantic Council) offers new insight.
Link to cited report:http://www.usip.org/publications/who...ecurity-forces
On CT work:
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... there is no coordinated counter-terrorist (CT) action in the country. 19 civilian agencies involved in internal security mount uncoordinated CT operations along with the state police
Link:http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analy...ntinue-to-rise
Pakistan Taliban crisis deepens
I missed these two updates, hat tip to Circling the Lion's Den, on the Pakistan Taliban (TTP): http://circlingthelionsden.blogspot....n-taliban.html and http://circlingthelionsden.blogspot....s-deepens.html
From the later:
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...money has dried up for the TTP and this has led to the desertion of former supporters, many of whom only fought for money. The TTP's shura, or ruling council, has shrunk from nearly 40 members to less than 10. The reason funds are in short supply, the article speculates, is that the Afghan Taliban has stopped paying the TTP because it is now in negotiations with the Afghan government.
Talking to the TTP: news, lessons and the price paid
Placed here due to the wider impact on pakistan beyond the frontier provinces.
Hat tip to Circling the Lion's Den, with several updates on the talks between the Pakistan Taliban (TTP) and ISI, as indicated by:
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We have drawn the broader outlines for a possible accord. And what we're now working on are minor details...These are crucial times ...we have to be extremely careful. A slight miscalculation can harm us in a big way," an intelligence official told The Express Tribune
Link:http://circlingthelionsden.blogspot....-isi-deal.html
The TTP factions have regrouped:
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According to reports coming from Pakistan, a new organisation called the Shura-e-Murakbah, made up of the remnants of what was once the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), has been created in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas.
The author comments:
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Three points should be drawn from this news: first, that al-Qaeda is still an important player - and, more importantly, financier - of the various jihadi factions in Pakistan. That is why they are at the table; second, support by Mullah Omar for this unification move may have more to do with unfolding events in Afghanistan than with a concern for uniting the notoriously unruly Pashtun tribes in Pakistan; and third, don't put any money on this agreement holding up for any length of time.
Link:http://circlingthelionsden.blogspot....ite-under.html
The murder of fifteen Frontier Corps jawans taken prisoner in late December by a TTP group, which most of the Pakistani press have ignored:http://circlingthelionsden.blogspot....ns-by-ttp.html
Counting dead militants in Pakistan
Hat tip to Circling the Lion's Den blogsite:
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I have been perplexed for some time by the figures for militants killed in clashes with the Pakistani Army and Airforce. If accurate, then given the massive attrition these figures suggest, it is surprising that the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan can still find anyone willing to fight for it....
Thus in the last three months - and accepting that these figures are not complete - a reported 496 militants, mostly members of the TTP or Lashkar-e-Islam, have been killed in military action in the FATA region of Pakistan. A similar number have been injured. Can this be possible? If so, it certainly confirms FATA as more of a battlefield than southern Afghanistan, for example, where reported deaths of militants are much lower. Either that, or the official figures are suspect. You decide.
A list of reported incidents is included:http://circlingthelionsden.blogspot....-pakistan.html
Have our observers of the Pakistani security scene noted a change in 'will'? Plus after the passage of time 'capability' may now be far more effective.