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For several days now, upwards of 300,000 people living in opposition-held areas of Aleppo city have existed in a state of de facto siege. As forces loyal to Bashar al-Assad closed down the opposition’s last remaining route into the city, sources within the city reported that supplies of critically important fuel and flour are already running low, while food prices have risen 400% in 48-hours. Fruit, vegetables and meat were fast disappearing.
On 15th July, the Council of Free Aleppo issued an “Urgent Report” describing the “fierce attack” ongoing on 64,000 families living in the area and pleaded for international assistance. Sadly, little help appears to be on the way. Last week, the UN assessments of people living in besieged areas of Syria stood at roughly 600,000; this week, that number should rise by 50%, as 300,000 more find themselves encircled in the ruins of eastern Aleppo.
In recent days, opposition-controlled areas of the city and its outlying areas have been struck by barrel bombs, heavy artillery, air-dropped sea mines and cluster munitions containing incendiary thermite, which burns at 2,500°C - all with minimal comment from the world’s diplomatic community. Desperate attempts by opposition fighters from the city’s 50-group Free Syrian Army (FSA)-led Fatah Halab coalition to repel besieging forces have resulted in dozens of fatalities.
“It is a very difficult situation, we are now besieged completely,” Sheikh Abdullah Othman told this author, while speaking as the political chief of the U.S.-vetted FSA group Al-Jabhat al-Shamiya and as the leader of Aleppo’s Islamic Council.
The Jabhat al-Nusra Issue
As the unthinkable was becoming a reality in Aleppo, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry held a day of talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow and agreed to a series of undetermined terms for bilateral cooperation against terrorism in Syria. A key component of Secretary Kerry’s attempt to close the gap with Russia is the Obama administration’s assessment that Al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra now poses a national security threat to the United States and must therefore be more determinedly combated.
Although Jabhat al-Nusra has a negligible presence within Aleppo city, it is active on a small-scale in its Bustan al-Qasr and al-Shaar districts, as well as in the city’s northern outskirts in Al-Mallah, Hreytan and Handarat. Elsewhere, the Al-Qaeda affiliate remains a dominant force across much of Idlib governorate and in Aleppo’s southern countryside, in northern Hama and in parts of northern Latakia. For all these areas, Jabhat al-Nusra continues to operate alongside or in close proximity to a wide array of mainstream opposition forces. Whether as a dominant force or not, Jabhat al-Nusra will now inevitably form a component of more strategic opposition attempts to break the siege of Aleppo from outside. Sizeable operations are currently being planned from the city’s northern, western and southern countrysides.
The U.S. has long been plagued by this inconvenient “marbling” dynamic – in which Jabhat al-Nusra has embedded itself deeply within Syrian revolutionary dynamics and established a relationship of military interdependence with the opposition. As a highly capable military actor, Jabhat al-Nusra’s role within opposition offensive and defensive operations remains of critical value. Consequently, months of U.S. covert attempts to convince opposition forces to “de-couple” themselves from front-lines on which Jabhat al-Nusra was present have been consistently spurned. As one of the most powerful opposition leaders in Aleppo governorate told this author, “If we withdrew from some of these positions, it would mean we were effectively ceding territory to the regime. This is impossible to consider under existing conditions.”
“The Americans refuse to strengthen the factions,” said Zakariya Malahfji of Tajamu Fastaqim Kama Umrit, an FSA group vetted by the United States and present in Aleppo city. “But at the same time, they object to us allowing al-Nusra to help in our battles. This is illogical.” Another senior U.S.-vetted figure from Aleppo who requested anonymity, was similarly frustrated: “Our situation in Aleppo has been desperate for so long, but Americans seem happy to watch us suffer and die. We are desperate and we’ll accept support from whoever will give it, so long as it contributes to defending against the [Assad] regime.”
Such arguments have had little policy effect in Washington DC, within an administration that appears increasingly resistant to activating real pressure on Assad as a means of securing a meaningful political process. Therefore, absent a substantial shift in conditions on the ground, the likelihood of mainstream opposition forces de-linking themselves from Jabhat al-Nusra looks highly improbable. As a senior Ahrar al-Sham leader told this author, “physical de-coupling is really difficult due to the nature of the front-lines where factions overlap in order to repel attacks. [Meanwhile, foreign] military pressure will make all factions operate more closely, since the alternative means defeat.”
Notwithstanding such Syrian nuance, an intensification of U.S. and Russian military action against Jabhat al-Nusra seems now to be only a matter of time. Should opposition forces indeed refuse to de-couple, inter-group cooperation will indeed likely intensify even further in response to the heightened external threat. This will then place a vast array of mainstream opposition forces back onto Russia’s target-set, though this time with apparent international legitimacy. As senior Jabhat al-Nusra leader Mustafa Mohamed Farag exclaimed: “Jabhat al-Nusra does not live in a bubble. It lives amongst the Muslims over thousands of square kilometers. Where are [the U.S. and Russia] going to target Jabhat al-Nusra alone? Jabhat al-Nusra are too deeply rooted into society to be exterminated as per US-Russian plans.”
The long-term consequences of such a scenario for the anti-Assad movement can only be assessed as negative. Some Syrians across the country’s north are therefore preparing themselves for a new phase of conflict, in which territory may be lost but resistance stays alive. “It’s likely that we’ll enter into a period of guerrilla warfare - a war of the streets, of bombings and raids,” said Malahfji.