Oil production turn-arounds
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Misifus
RickM,
The Romanian oil industry is in shambles, not because they have "peaked," but simply because they have mismanaged. They are as dumb as the Russians, actually dumber. Consider that Russian oil is easier for them to purchase then for them to get off of their lazy mismanaged butts and produce their own fields.
No-one can prove that Romania's 1977 peak will never be surpassed: miracles do happen. But do you believe that a turn-around of that scale is likely?
In James Hamilton's recent article, he provides a data appendix with some interesting historical data on American oil production.
He paired Indiana and Illinois and tracked their combined oil production, which reached a peak of almost 37,000,000 barrels in 1908 (ie. annual production). By 1936 this had fallen to around 5,000,000 barrels.
Given the length of time and the scale of the reduction, it would not have been unreasonable for people in 1936 to assume that the 1908 peak was probably permanent. But production suddenly surged in 1939 and the following year hit a new peak of 152,625,000. (It's currently around 11,000,000 per year.)
But such miraculous production turn-arounds are rare. As the years tick by with so few of them, would it not be prudent to assume that many of the apparent production peaks may indeed turn out to be permanent?
Given the vital importance of oil to us all, I really don't understand your aversion to even discussing this data & this issues which arise from it.
Birol: Peak "commercial oil"?
Fatih Birol is Chief Economist for the International Energy Agency, which will issue its annual World Energy Outlook in 36 hours or so.
Mr. Birol's interview today with EurActiv ended with this exchange:
Quote:
You’ve said in the past that you believe that the world has already passed its ‘peak oil’ moment – the point at which the amount of oil already used outweighs the amount left in the ground. How far past that moment do you think we are, and what are the economic and environmental consequences?
[Birol:] We have said that we have seen the peak of commercial oil. There is still uncommercial oil and other forms coming and we will definitely need oil for our mobility systems for cars, trucks and jets and for our economic daily life to continue.
However, one day we will run out of oil - not tomorrow or the day after but one day we will. Given its strategic importance for our societies, it is important to prepare our societies for that very day and try to find alternatives to oil especially in transportation systems. These could be electric cars, hybrid cars, natural gas, or biofuels-driven cars, or putting more emphasis on mass transportation.
When we talk about CO2 emissions, people think directly about coal. But if you look at the numbers, the contribution of oil to global CO2 emissions is only a few percentage points lower than coal. Therefore it needs to be taken closely into consideration.
We’re not running out of oil today or tomorrow but we need to prepare ourselves for the day that we do. We have to leave oil before it leaves us.
I do not recall Birol saying that we have peaked in "commercial oil" before. There has been some discussion about the IEA conceding that we may have peaked in conventional oil, but I do not recall previous statements about "commercial oil."
Test Post, but with a point
Good evening. Just endeavoring to post my first thought to this blog and try it out. I'll keep it short. I believe it is not wise for DoD to bifrucate its energy policy between OSD-Installations, Energy and Environment and OSD-Operational Energy.
DOD and the search for efficiency
Welcome, Sappeur
I don't know enough about the inner workings of DoD to say whether the current structure is wise or not, but Andy Bochman & Dan Nolan run a website which is very thorough in examining DoD's approach to energy use (in terms of departmental organization, mandates, budgets, implementation, etc... just in case you aren't aware of it):
http://www.dodenergy.blogspot.com/
Bill,
I agree.
Again, DoD is a leader in both research and in application when it comes to energy conservation. At the 2010 ASPO conference, RADM Larry Rice said that he felt DoD was doing its part (and mentioned several efforts by USN) and that the civilian sector needs to get serious/on board as well.
Energy Institute's peak oil conference
The UK's Energy Institute describes itself as:
"the professional body for the energy industry, delivering good practice and professionalism across the depth and breadth of the sector....
A Royal Chartered membership organisation, the EI supports around 15,000 individuals and 250 companies across 100 countries, serving society with independence, professionalism and a wealth of expertise in energy matters."
Virtually everyone views EI and its membership as highly credible.
Please note the topic of their conference in 3 weeks, as well as the involvement of PO analysts like Skrebowski and Bentley, etc:
http://www.energyinst.org/events/view/591
EI is taking a rather open-ended approach to the PO issue. Their conference will focus on the practical aspect which ultimately matters, "Have we reached the end of cheap oil and if so what effect will this have?"
Whatever combination of factors prevents us from having a steady flow of affordable oil, the fact remains that (unless we find an adequate replacement very quickly) we may face risks on an unprecedented scale.